CassandrIA
ITAItaly flag

Italy

Italy has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.

🟠 Strain

70 / 100

#31 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Italy in November or December 2026: 0.8% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Italy in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Italy, or with Italy as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.8% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population58.9M
CapitalRome
Area301.3k km²
GDP$2.6T (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesItalian
Armed forces338k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
46.71
L3 Politics
40.45
L4 Events
20.33
L5 Information
33.65
L6 Society
52.5

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 68.8 (1946-1949); lowest 24.7 (1980s).

Details

Recorded events 53 · Country record

  • 31 Jan 2020state of emergency
  • 14 Dec 2019street pressure
  • 23 Nov 2019street pressure
  • 2 Mar 2019street pressure
  • 18 Oct 2014street pressure
  • 14 Nov 2012street pressure
  • 16 Jun 2012street pressure
  • 15 Oct 2011street pressure
  • 6 Sep 2011street pressure
  • 1 Jul 2011street pressure
  • 13 Feb 2011street pressure
  • 14 Dec 2010street pressure
Show all 53
  • 27 Feb 2010street pressure
  • 5 Dec 2009street pressure
  • 3 Oct 2009street pressure
  • 9 Jul 2008street pressure
  • 1 Oct 2007street pressure
  • 8 Sep 2007street pressure
  • 13 May 2007street pressure
  • 17 Feb 2007street pressure
  • 8 Dec 2005street pressure
  • 25 Nov 2005street pressure
  • 1 Dec 2004street pressure
  • 31 Oct 2004street pressure
  • 24 Oct 2003street pressure
  • 17 Dec 2002street pressure
  • 10 Nov 2002street pressure
  • 10 Oct 2002street pressure
  • 15 Sep 2002street pressure
  • 17 Apr 2002street pressure
  • 4 Mar 2002street pressure
  • 11 Nov 2001street pressure
  • 25 Jul 2001street pressure
  • 15 Mar 1997street pressure
  • 12 Nov 1994street pressure
  • 18 Nov 1993street pressure
  • 28 May 1993street pressure
  • 1993currency stress
  • 16 Dec 1992street pressure
  • 26 Oct 1992street pressure
  • 21 Jul 1992street pressure
  • 28 Jun 1992street pressure
  • 1981currency stress
  • 1 Apr 1977external support
  • 1976currency stress
  • 1 Apr 1975external support
  • 1 Jan 1975capital controls
  • 1 Jun 1974external support
  • 1 May 1973external support
  • 1 May 1972external support
  • 1 Jan 1972capital controls
  • 1 May 1964external support
  • 1 Mar 1963external support

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Italy · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194671.8Strainarchive reading
194770.4Strainarchive reading
194869.5Strainarchive reading
194963.6Watcharchive reading
195062.5Watcharchive reading
195156.4Watcharchive reading
195255.9Watcharchive reading
195355.6Watcharchive reading
195455.3Watcharchive reading
195554.4Calmarchive reading
195653.1Calmarchive reading
195751.2Calmarchive reading
195849.8Calmarchive reading
195948.4Calmarchive reading
196047.4Calmarchive reading
196144.4Calmarchive reading
196242.6Calmarchive reading
196340.7Calmarchive reading
196439.8Calmarchive reading
196539.2Calmarchive reading
196637.7Calmarchive reading
196736.0Calmarchive reading
196833.3Calmarchive reading
196931.9Calmarchive reading
197031.2Calmarchive reading
197130.3Calmarchive reading
197229.1Calmarchive reading
197327.5Calmarchive reading
197426.8Calmarchive reading
197555.7Watcharchive reading
197626.5Calmarchive reading
197726.2Calmarchive reading
197825.9Calmarchive reading
197925.8Calmarchive reading
198025.6Calmarchive reading
198125.5Calmarchive reading
198225.5Calmarchive reading
198325.3Calmarchive reading
198424.8Calmarchive reading
198524.6Calmarchive reading
198624.5Calmarchive reading
198724.3Calmarchive reading
198824.2Calmarchive reading
198923.1Calmarchive reading
199044.6Calmarchive reading
199122.9Calmarchive reading
199228.2Calmarchive reading
199350.1Calmarchive reading
199428.0Calmarchive reading
199522.9Calmarchive reading
199622.4Calmarchive reading
199722.3Calmarchive reading
199822.2Calmarchive reading
199922.1Calmarchive reading
200027.9Calmarchive reading
200128.9Calmarchive reading
200228.2Calmarchive reading
200327.7Calmarchive reading
200427.2Calmarchive reading
200527.1Calmarchive reading
200627.0Calmarchive reading
200732.4Calmarchive reading
200858.7Watcharchive reading
200955.0Watcharchive reading
201043.7Calmarchive reading
201142.9Calmarchive reading
201256.2Watcharchive reading
201355.2Watcharchive reading
201429.2Calmarchive reading
201522.8Calmarchive reading
201622.1Calmarchive reading
201726.7Calmarchive reading
201821.4Calmarchive reading
201923.0Calmarchive reading
202055.1Watcharchive reading
202121.6Calmarchive reading
202223.1Calmarchive reading
202335.1Calmarchive reading
202441.8Calmarchive reading
202549.2Calmarchive reading
Italy · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202670Strainestimated

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Japan, 1999

Details
Japan, 1999Portugal, 2009Luxembourg, 1981

JPN, 1999

Published archive distance 0.2799. This similarity is not a forecast.

PRT, 2009

Published archive distance 0.313. This similarity is not a forecast.

LUX, 1981

Published archive distance 0.4139. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Italy
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events42%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 3Confidence 62

Italy in this snapshot

Italy (ITA) records Strain pressure at 70.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 62.0.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Italy has pressure score 70/100 in Strain. 30 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 31. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Niger (NER), 72/100, higher by 2; Nigeria (NGA), 70/100, tied.

Italy's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 68.8). The lowest is 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 24.7). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Italy: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949468.863.671.80
1950-19591054.348.462.50
1960-19691039.331.947.40
1970-19791030.525.855.70
1980-19891024.723.125.60
1990-19991028.622.150.10
2000-200910342758.70
2010-20191034.321.456.20
2020-2025637.621.655.10

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Italy's mapped-score peak is 71.8 in 1946; the minimum is 21.4 in 2018.

Italy is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 15 of 80 readings: 1946-1954, 1975, 2008-2009, 2012-2013, 2020. The remaining 65 are below 55.

Italy is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 3 of 80 readings: 1946-1948. The remaining 77 are below 65.

Italy never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Italy is 2020 to 2021: Watch (55.1) to Calm (21.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Italy records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts