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Malaysia

Malaysia has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

22.1 / 100

#164 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Malaysia in November or December 2026: 0.5% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Malaysia in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Malaysia, or with Malaysia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.5% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population36M
CapitalKuala Lumpur
Area330.8k km²
GDP~$472B (2025)
CurrencyMYR
LanguagesMalay, English
Armed forces136k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
24.8
L3 Politics
57.25
L4 Events
53.1
L5 Information
47.94
L6 Society
57.5

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 83.5 (1950s); lowest 28.7 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 38 · Country record

  • 8 Dec 2018street pressure
  • 16 Sep 2015street pressure
  • 29 Aug 2015street pressure
  • 7 Mar 2015street pressure
  • 1 May 2014street pressure
  • 9 May 2013street pressure
  • 28 Apr 2012street pressure
  • 1 Jan 2010capital controls
  • 2 Aug 2009street pressure
  • 1 Jan 2009capital controls
  • 10 Nov 2007street pressure
  • 10 Nov 2000street pressure
Show all 38
  • 20 Sep 1999street pressure
  • 10 Oct 1998street pressure
  • 20 Sep 1998street pressure
  • 1998currency stress
  • 24 Sep 1997street pressure
  • 1 Jan 1993capital controls
  • 1981conflict escalation
  • 1975conflict escalation
  • 1974conflict escalation
  • 1966conflict escalation
  • 1965conflict escalation
  • 1964conflict escalation
  • 1963conflict escalation
  • 1960conflict escalation
  • 1959conflict escalation
  • 1958conflict escalation
  • 1957conflict escalation
  • 1956conflict escalation
  • 1955conflict escalation
  • 1954conflict escalation
  • 1953conflict escalation
  • 1952conflict escalation
  • 1951conflict escalation
  • 1950conflict escalation
  • 1949conflict escalation
  • 1948conflict escalation

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Malaysia · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194681.0Crisisarchive reading
194785.9Crisisarchive reading
194884.6Crisisarchive reading
194978.0Strainarchive reading
195095.0Crisisarchive reading
195195.0Crisisarchive reading
195295.0Crisisarchive reading
195395.0Crisisarchive reading
195478.1Strainarchive reading
195576.8Strainarchive reading
195667.5Strainarchive reading
195774.9Strainarchive reading
195884.7Crisisarchive reading
195973.2Strainarchive reading
196072.4Strainarchive reading
196167.8Strainarchive reading
196267.2Strainarchive reading
196370.9Strainarchive reading
196470.8Strainarchive reading
196570.2Strainarchive reading
196669.9Strainarchive reading
196764.6Watcharchive reading
196871.9Strainarchive reading
196976.7Strainarchive reading
197080.2Crisisarchive reading
197178.7Strainarchive reading
197266.9Strainarchive reading
197365.8Strainarchive reading
197469.5Strainarchive reading
197569.3Strainarchive reading
197663.8Watcharchive reading
197763.3Watcharchive reading
197862.4Watcharchive reading
197962.1Watcharchive reading
198061.7Watcharchive reading
198166.9Strainarchive reading
198260.6Watcharchive reading
198360.4Watcharchive reading
198459.8Watcharchive reading
198575.8Strainarchive reading
198659.6Watcharchive reading
198760.0Watcharchive reading
198859.6Watcharchive reading
198957.8Watcharchive reading
199057.0Watcharchive reading
199156.5Watcharchive reading
199256.2Watcharchive reading
199355.7Watcharchive reading
199455.2Watcharchive reading
199553.9Calmarchive reading
199655.9Watcharchive reading
199749.9Calmarchive reading
199869.3Strainarchive reading
199951.2Calmarchive reading
200049.1Calmarchive reading
200149.6Calmarchive reading
200255.2Watcharchive reading
200347.0Calmarchive reading
200444.7Calmarchive reading
200543.4Calmarchive reading
200641.8Calmarchive reading
200746.9Calmarchive reading
200845.4Calmarchive reading
200961.7Watcharchive reading
201044.2Calmarchive reading
201135.4Calmarchive reading
201234.4Calmarchive reading
201362.2Watcharchive reading
201435.2Calmarchive reading
201542.1Calmarchive reading
201641.5Calmarchive reading
201732.5Calmarchive reading
201837.6Calmarchive reading
201927.6Calmarchive reading
202050.8Calmarchive reading
202127.8Calmarchive reading
202227.5Calmarchive reading
202322.1Calmarchive reading
202422.1Calmarchive reading
202522.1Calmarchive reading
Malaysia · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202622.1Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Japan, 1980

Details
Japan, 1980Portugal, 1999United States, 1964

JPN, 1980

Published archive distance 0.1779. This similarity is not a forecast.

PRT, 1999

Published archive distance 0.1866. This similarity is not a forecast.

USA, 1964

Published archive distance 0.1978. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Malaysia
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-061Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-273Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-141Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy58%
L3 Politics89%
L4 Events56%
L5 Information87%
L6 Society70%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 68.6

Malaysia in this snapshot

Malaysia (MYS) records Calm pressure at 22.1 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 68.6.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Malaysia has pressure score 22.1/100 in Calm. 163 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 164. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Namibia (NAM), 22.4/100, higher by 0.3; Solomon Islands (SLB), 22.1/100, tied.

Malaysia's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 83.5). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 28.7). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Malaysia: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949482.47885.93
1950-19591083.567.5955
1960-19691070.264.676.70
1970-19791068.262.180.21
1980-19891062.257.875.80
1990-19991056.149.969.30
2000-20091048.541.861.70
2010-20191039.327.662.20
2020-2025628.722.150.80

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Malaysia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1950-1953; the minimum is 22.1 in 2023-2025.

Malaysia is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 54 of 80 readings: 1946-1994, 1996, 1998, 2002, 2009, 2013. The remaining 26 are below 55.

Malaysia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 32 of 80 readings: 1946-1966, 1968-1975, 1981, 1985, 1998. The remaining 48 are below 65.

Malaysia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 9 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1953, 1958, 1970. The remaining 71 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Malaysia is 2013 to 2014: Watch (62.2) to Calm (35.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Malaysia records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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