HUN, 1976
Published archive distance 0.1099. This similarity is not a forecast.
THA
Thailand
Thailand has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
55 / 100
#73 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Thailand in November or December 2026: 4.1% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Thailand in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Thailand, or with Thailand as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 4.1% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population71.6M71,619,863 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBangkokBangkok
Area513.1k km²513120
GDP$577B (2025)577.0 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyTHBTHB , Thai baht
LanguagesThaiThai
Armed forces455k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 81.7 (1950s); lowest 61 (1990s).
Details
Recorded events 69 · Country record
- Dec 2025conflict escalation
- Jul 2025conflict escalation
- 12 Jan 2020street pressure
- 20 May 2014state of emergency
- 29 Mar 2014street pressure
- 13 Jan 2014street pressure
- 9 Dec 2013street pressure
- 1 Nov 2013street pressure
- Feb 2013conflict escalation
- 24 Nov 2012street pressure
- 28 Oct 2012street pressure
- Mar 2012conflict escalation
Show all 69
- 13 Feb 2011street pressure
- 10 Jan 2011street pressure
- 19 Sep 2010street pressure
- 12 Mar 2010street pressure
- 14 Nov 2009street pressure
- 19 Sep 2009street pressure
- 27 Jun 2009street pressure
- Jun 2009conflict escalation
- 8 Apr 2009street pressure
- 26 Mar 2009street pressure
- 14 Feb 2009street pressure
- 30 Jan 2009street pressure
- 1 Jan 2009capital controls
- 20 Nov 2008street pressure
- 21 Jun 2008street pressure
- Jun 2008conflict escalation
- 4 Jan 2008street pressure
- 2008sovereign stress
- 15 Aug 2007street pressure
- 9 Jun 2007street pressure
- 1 Jan 2007capital controls
- 5 Mar 2006street pressure
- 4 Feb 2006street pressure
- 2006sovereign stress
- 7 Dec 2005street pressure
- 19 Nov 2005street pressure
- 11 Aug 2005street pressure
- Nov 2004conflict escalation
- Apr 2004conflict escalation
- 27 Mar 2004street pressure
- 23 Feb 2004street pressure
- Jan 2004conflict escalation
- 17 Oct 2003street pressure
- 20 May 2002street pressure
- 31 Mar 2002street pressure
- 1 Feb 2002street pressure
- 21 Oct 2001street pressure
- 8 Feb 1998street pressure
- 1998currency stress
- 1998sovereign stress
- 1 Aug 1997external support
- 27 Jan 1997street pressure
- 1997currency stress
- 4 May 1992street pressure
- 20 Apr 1992street pressure
- 1991sovereign stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1951conflict escalation
- 1946election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 71.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 88.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 71.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 83.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 69.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 72.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 86.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 76.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 68.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1984 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1985 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1986 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 56.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1990 | 56.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1991 | 72.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1993 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1994 | 56.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1995 | 56.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1996 | 55.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1997 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1998 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 54.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2000 | 56.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 56.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2002 | 56.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2003 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 85.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 77.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 77.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 72.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 84.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 68.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 65.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 70.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Hungary, 1976
Details
PRT, 1968
Published archive distance 0.1135. This similarity is not a forecast.
BGR, 1988
Published archive distance 0.1166. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events54%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society58%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 3 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 64.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Thailand in this snapshot
Thailand (THA) records Watch pressure at 55.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 64.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Thailand has pressure score 55/100 in Watch. 72 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 18 share this score. Its competition rank is 73. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Tanzania, United Republic of (TZA), 55/100, tied; Togo (TGO), 55/100, tied.
Thailand's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 81.7). The lowest is 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 61). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 76.7 | 68.2 | 79.5 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 81.7 | 71.2 | 94.8 | 7 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 73.1 | 67.2 | 83.9 | 3 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 79.6 | 71.5 | 86.7 | 6 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 67 | 56.5 | 76.9 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 61 | 54.8 | 75.9 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 72 | 56.3 | 89.5 | 4 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 75.2 | 65.9 | 84.2 | 2 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 65.2 | 63.6 | 70.7 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Thailand's mapped-score peak is 94.8 in 1952; the minimum is 54.8 in 1999.
Thailand is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-1998, 2000-2025. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Thailand is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 60 of 80 readings: 1946-1982, 1986-1988, 1991, 1998, 2003-2020. The remaining 20 are below 65.
Thailand is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 22 of 80 readings: 1950-1953, 1955, 1958-1962, 1973-1974, 1976-1979, 2006-2009, 2014-2015. The remaining 58 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Thailand is 2020 to 2021: Strain (70.7) to Watch (64.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Thailand records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.