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Slovenia

Slovenia has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

52.3 / 100

#106 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Slovenia in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Slovenia in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Slovenia, or with Slovenia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population2.1M
CapitalLjubljana
Area20.3k km²
GDP$79.6B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesSlovene
Armed forces7k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
26.75
L3 Politics
38.75
L4 Events
37.5
L5 Information
24.75
L6 Society
47.33

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 67.8 (1960s); lowest 25.8 (1980s).

Details

Recorded events 19 · Country record

  • 2022election
  • 2017election
  • 8 Feb 2013street pressure
  • 2012election
  • 28 Nov 2009street pressure
  • 7 Apr 2008street pressure
  • 17 Nov 2007street pressure
  • 2007election
  • 26 Nov 2005street pressure
  • 2002sovereign stress
  • 2002election
  • 2000currency stress
Show all 19
  • 1997election
  • 1993currency stress
  • 1992currency stress
  • 1992sovereign stress
  • 1992election
  • 1991currency stress
  • 1990election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Slovenia · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194695.0Crisisarchive reading
194795.0Crisisarchive reading
194815Calmarchive reading
194915Calmarchive reading
195015Calmarchive reading
195115Calmarchive reading
195281.4Crisisarchive reading
195380.9Crisisarchive reading
195479.5Strainarchive reading
195578.5Strainarchive reading
195678.7Strainarchive reading
195777.8Strainarchive reading
195876.0Strainarchive reading
195975.3Strainarchive reading
196073.2Strainarchive reading
196171.8Strainarchive reading
196271.1Strainarchive reading
196368.6Strainarchive reading
196467.2Strainarchive reading
196567.2Strainarchive reading
196666.3Strainarchive reading
196765.8Strainarchive reading
196864.5Watcharchive reading
196962.5Watcharchive reading
197060.9Watcharchive reading
197159.2Watcharchive reading
197258.2Watcharchive reading
197356.7Watcharchive reading
197454.7Calmarchive reading
197548.9Calmarchive reading
197647.4Calmarchive reading
197739.6Calmarchive reading
197829.9Calmarchive reading
197918.9Calmarchive reading
198020.6Calmarchive reading
198122.5Calmarchive reading
198226.6Calmarchive reading
198327.1Calmarchive reading
198425.7Calmarchive reading
198525.6Calmarchive reading
198620.8Calmarchive reading
198723.5Calmarchive reading
198829.3Calmarchive reading
198936.6Calmarchive reading
199033.9Calmarchive reading
199171.8Strainarchive reading
199278.2Strainarchive reading
199366.3Strainarchive reading
199465.3Strainarchive reading
199564.7Watcharchive reading
199663.9Watcharchive reading
199743.3Calmarchive reading
199840.1Calmarchive reading
199939.2Calmarchive reading
200036.0Calmarchive reading
200136.5Calmarchive reading
200261.6Watcharchive reading
200333.1Calmarchive reading
200433.6Calmarchive reading
200535.5Calmarchive reading
200634.3Calmarchive reading
200730.6Calmarchive reading
200830.1Calmarchive reading
200958.3Watcharchive reading
201028.8Calmarchive reading
201128.4Calmarchive reading
201261.8Watcharchive reading
201358.7Watcharchive reading
201427.7Calmarchive reading
201526.9Calmarchive reading
201626.6Calmarchive reading
201730.7Calmarchive reading
201833.7Calmarchive reading
201932.6Calmarchive reading
202056.8Watcharchive reading
202152.7Calmarchive reading
202218.4Calmarchive reading
202316.6Calmarchive reading
202417.5Calmarchive reading
202552.3Calmarchive reading
Slovenia · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202652.3Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Ireland, 2014

Details
Ireland, 2014Germany, 2008France, 2014

IRL, 2014

Published archive distance 0.3418. This similarity is not a forecast.

DEU, 2008

Published archive distance 0.5055. This similarity is not a forecast.

FRA, 2014

Published archive distance 0.5335. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Slovenia
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-061Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-271Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-142Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z3Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy73%
L3 Politics79%
L4 Events48%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society70%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 67.7

Slovenia in this snapshot

Slovenia (SVN) records Calm pressure at 52.3 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 67.7.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Slovenia has pressure score 52.3/100 in Calm. 105 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 106. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Comoros (COM), 52.3/100, tied; Djibouti (DJI), 51/100, lower by 1.3.

Slovenia's highest decade mean is recorded in 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 67.8). The lowest is 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 25.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Slovenia: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-194945515952
1950-19591065.81581.42
1960-19691067.862.573.20
1970-19791047.418.960.90
1980-19891025.820.636.60
1990-19991056.733.978.20
2000-2009103930.161.60
2010-20191035.626.661.80
2020-2025635.716.656.80

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Slovenia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1947; the minimum is 15 in 1948-1951.

Slovenia is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 35 of 80 readings: 1946-1947, 1952-1973, 1991-1996, 2002, 2009, 2012-2013, 2020. The remaining 45 are below 55.

Slovenia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 22 of 80 readings: 1946-1947, 1952-1967, 1991-1994. The remaining 58 are below 65.

Slovenia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 4 of 80 readings: 1946-1947, 1952-1953. The remaining 76 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Slovenia is 2020 to 2021: Watch (56.8) to Calm (52.7). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Slovenia records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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