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Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

45.6 / 100

#116 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Kazakhstan in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Kazakhstan in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Kazakhstan, or with Kazakhstan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population20.8M
CapitalAstana
Area2.7M km²
GDP$306.2B (2025)
CurrencyKZT
LanguagesKazakh, Russian
Armed forces71k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
53.86
L3 Politics
73.5
L4 Events
29.9
L5 Information
58.81
L6 Society
45.67

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 80.7 (1990s); lowest 47 (1960s).

Details

Recorded events 33 · Country record

  • 2 Jan 2022street pressure
  • 2022election
  • 2020sovereign stress
  • 2019election
  • 2016currency stress
  • 2015currency stress
  • 2015election
  • 2014sovereign stress
  • 26 May 2011street pressure
  • 2011election
  • 2009currency stress
  • 2005election
Show all 33
  • 2004election
  • 2003sovereign stress
  • 2001sovereign stress
  • 1 Dec 1999external support
  • 1999currency stress
  • 1999election
  • 1998sovereign stress
  • 1 Jul 1996external support
  • 1996currency stress
  • 1 Jun 1995external support
  • 1995currency stress
  • 1995election
  • 1 Jan 1994external support
  • 1994currency stress
  • 1993currency stress
  • 1993sovereign stress
  • 24 Feb 1992street pressure
  • 1992currency stress
  • 1991currency stress
  • 1991election
  • 29 Sep 1990street pressure

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Kazakhstan · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
196015Calmarchive reading
196115Calmarchive reading
196215Calmarchive reading
196315Calmarchive reading
196415Calmarchive reading
196515Calmarchive reading
196695.0Crisisarchive reading
196795.0Crisisarchive reading
196895.0Crisisarchive reading
196995.0Crisisarchive reading
197095.0Crisisarchive reading
197115Calmarchive reading
197215Calmarchive reading
197357.0Watcharchive reading
197415Calmarchive reading
197595.0Crisisarchive reading
197695.0Crisisarchive reading
197795.0Crisisarchive reading
197895.0Crisisarchive reading
197995.0Crisisarchive reading
198073.8Strainarchive reading
198158.3Watcharchive reading
198258.9Watcharchive reading
198374.4Strainarchive reading
198474.9Strainarchive reading
198574.9Strainarchive reading
198674.9Strainarchive reading
198775.3Strainarchive reading
198872.7Strainarchive reading
198964.2Watcharchive reading
199061.9Watcharchive reading
199180.2Crisisarchive reading
199281.2Crisisarchive reading
199393.9Crisisarchive reading
199492.1Crisisarchive reading
199595.0Crisisarchive reading
199671.4Strainarchive reading
199773.8Strainarchive reading
199884.2Crisisarchive reading
199972.9Strainarchive reading
200060.4Watcharchive reading
200171.5Strainarchive reading
200258.6Watcharchive reading
200369.6Strainarchive reading
200457.1Watcharchive reading
200557.0Watcharchive reading
200657.3Watcharchive reading
200752.6Calmarchive reading
200849.7Calmarchive reading
200949.1Calmarchive reading
201053.4Calmarchive reading
201153.9Calmarchive reading
201247.1Calmarchive reading
201346.4Calmarchive reading
201463.7Watcharchive reading
201544.6Calmarchive reading
201643.2Calmarchive reading
201742.9Calmarchive reading
201844.4Calmarchive reading
201942.1Calmarchive reading
202067.3Strainarchive reading
202142.6Calmarchive reading
202243.6Calmarchive reading
202341.6Calmarchive reading
202443.7Calmarchive reading
202545.6Calmarchive reading
Kazakhstan · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202645.6Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Barbados, 2007

Details
Barbados, 2007Belgium, 1964Malta, 1989

BRB, 2007

Published archive distance 0.1487. This similarity is not a forecast.

BEL, 1964

Published archive distance 0.204. This similarity is not a forecast.

MLT, 1989

Published archive distance 0.2419. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Kazakhstan
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-062Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-270Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-143Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z3Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics94%
L4 Events48%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society63%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 64.3

Kazakhstan in this snapshot

Kazakhstan (KAZ) records Calm pressure at 45.6 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 64.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 67 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Kazakhstan has pressure score 45.6/100 in Calm. 115 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 116. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): United Arab Emirates (ARE), 46/100, higher by 0.4; Uzbekistan (UZB), 45.1/100, lower by 0.5.

Kazakhstan's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 80.7). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 47). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Kazakhstan: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1960-1969104715954
1970-19791067.215956
1980-19891070.258.375.30
1990-19991080.761.9956
2000-20091058.349.171.50
2010-20191048.242.163.70
2020-2025647.441.667.30

Across 66 annual readings (1960-2025), Kazakhstan's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1966-1970, 1975-1979, 1995; the minimum is 15 in 1960-1965, 1971-1972, 1974.

Kazakhstan is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 40 of 66 readings: 1966-1970, 1973, 1975-2006, 2014, 2020. The remaining 26 are below 55.

Kazakhstan is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 29 of 66 readings: 1966-1970, 1975-1980, 1983-1988, 1991-1999, 2001, 2003, 2020. The remaining 37 are below 65.

Kazakhstan is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 16 of 66 readings: 1966-1970, 1975-1979, 1991-1995, 1998. The remaining 50 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Kazakhstan is 2020 to 2021: Strain (67.3) to Calm (42.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Kazakhstan records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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