SYR, 1984
Published archive distance 0.37. This similarity is not a forecast.
LBN
Lebanon
Lebanon has a Crisis pressure reading, near the top of the ranking.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
85 / 100
#5 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Lebanon in November or December 2026: 23% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Lebanon in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Lebanon, or with Lebanon as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 23% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population5.8M5,849,421 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBeirutBeirut
Area10.5k km²10452
GDP~$26B (2024)~$25.97 USD bn (2024, WB); comparison estimate notes range $19-25bn post-crisis (era ~$52bn pre-2019) · Year 2024 · Source: World Bank; Wikipedia
CurrencyLBPLBP , Lebanese pound
LanguagesArabic, FrenchArabic, French
Armed forces80k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 84.8 (1980s); lowest 60.6 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 64 · Country record
- 16 Apr 2026ceasefire
- 2 Mar 2026conflict escalation
- Oct 2024conflict escalation
- Sep 2024conflict escalation
- 2020sovereign stress
- Jul 2017conflict escalation
- May 2017conflict escalation
- Jun 2015conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2015capital controls
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
- Aug 2014conflict escalation
- Dec 2013conflict escalation
Show all 64
- Aug 2013conflict escalation
- May 2013conflict escalation
- 21 Nov 2012street pressure
- 14 Feb 2008street pressure
- 1 Dec 2006street pressure
- 23 Nov 2006street pressure
- 22 Sep 2006street pressure
- Jul 2006conflict escalation
- 15 Feb 2006street pressure
- 31 Oct 2005new sanctions
- 27 May 2005street pressure
- 7 Mar 2005street pressure
- 17 Feb 2005street pressure
- 2002sovereign stress
- 21 Apr 2001street pressure
- 1 Jan 2001capital controls
- 2000sovereign stress
- Apr 1996conflict escalation
- Jun 1994conflict escalation
- 15 Sep 1993street pressure
- Jul 1993conflict escalation
- May 1992conflict escalation
- 1992currency stress
- 1991currency stress
- Oct 1990conflict escalation
- Jul 1990conflict escalation
- Feb 1990conflict escalation
- 6 Jan 1990street pressure
- Jan 1990conflict escalation
- 1990currency stress
- Dec 1989conflict escalation
- Aug 1989conflict escalation
- 1989currency stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1987currency stress
- 1986currency stress
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985currency stress
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982sovereign stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981currency stress
- 1976currency stress
- 1976sovereign stress
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1958conflict escalation
- 1951election
- 1947election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 60.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1957 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 61.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1962 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 60.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1968 | 58.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 58.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 57.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 51.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1972 | 49.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1973 | 51.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1974 | 51.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1975 | 82.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 92.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 72.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1997 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 60.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1999 | 68.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 58.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2002 | 67.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 58.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 65.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 57.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 58.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 58.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 47.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2012 | 55.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 57.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 68.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 53.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2017 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 91.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 71.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Syrian Arab Republic, 1984
Details
NER, 1971
Published archive distance 0.3989. This similarity is not a forecast.
GMB, 2013
Published archive distance 0.4335. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy76%Confirmed: 4 of 8; Sourced: 3 of 8; Inferred: 1 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events70%Confirmed: 2 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society58%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 3 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 72.9The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Lebanon in this snapshot
Lebanon (LBN) records Crisis pressure at 85.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is crisis; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 72.9.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Lebanon has pressure score 85/100 in Crisis. 4 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 4 share this score. Its competition rank is 5. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Haiti (HTI), 85/100, tied; Palestine, State of (PSE), 85/100, tied.
Lebanon's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 84.8). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 60.6). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 80.5 | 70 | 95 | 1 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 66.6 | 60 | 87.2 | 1 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 60.6 | 58.6 | 62.3 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 67.1 | 49.3 | 95 | 3 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 84.8 | 69.9 | 95 | 6 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 72.5 | 60.8 | 95 | 1 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 64.7 | 57.8 | 89.5 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 62 | 47.5 | 91.1 | 1 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 73.7 | 59.5 | 95 | 1 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Lebanon's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1948, 1976, 1984, 1988-1990, 2024; the minimum is 47.5 in 2011.
Lebanon is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 74 of 80 readings: 1946-1970, 1975-2010, 2012-2015, 2017-2025. The remaining 6 are below 55.
Lebanon is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 44 of 80 readings: 1946-1952, 1958-1959, 1975-1995, 1997, 1999-2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014-2015, 2019-2024. The remaining 36 are below 65.
Lebanon is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 15 of 80 readings: 1948, 1958, 1975-1976, 1978, 1982-1984, 1986, 1988-1990, 2006, 2019, 2024. The remaining 65 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Lebanon is 2024 to 2025: Crisis (95) to Watch (59.5). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Lebanon records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.