LBR, 1999
Published archive distance 0.0754. This similarity is not a forecast.
AFG
Afghanistan
Afghanistan has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
75 / 100
#21 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Afghanistan in November or December 2026: 30% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Afghanistan in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Afghanistan, or with Afghanistan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 30% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population43.8M43,844,111 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalKabulKabul
Area652.2k km²652230
GDP$17.8B (2024)17.8 USD bn (2024) · Year 2024 · Source: World Bank, 2024
CurrencyAFNAFN , Afghan afghani
LanguagesDari + moreDari, Pashto, Turkmen
Armed forces165k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 95 (1980s; 1990s; 2000s; 2010s); lowest 69.8 (1946-1949).
Details
Recorded events 120 · Country record
- 26 Feb 2026conflict escalation
- Oct 2025conflict escalation
- Dec 2024conflict escalation
- Sep 2024conflict escalation
- May 2024conflict escalation
- Mar 2024conflict escalation
- Oct 2023conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2023displacement surge
- Sep 2022conflict escalation
- Apr 2022conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2022displacement surge
- 15 Aug 2021leadership break
Show all 120
- Jun 2021conflict escalation
- May 2021conflict escalation
- 1 Nov 2020external support
- 2019election
- 1 Jul 2016external support
- 11 Nov 2015street pressure
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
- 27 Jun 2014street pressure
- Jan 2014conflict escalation
- 2014election
- May 2013conflict escalation
- 1 Nov 2011external support
- 17 Jun 2011new sanctions
- 5 May 2011street pressure
- Jun 2010conflict escalation
- May 2009conflict escalation
- 2009election
- Jun 2008conflict escalation
- Apr 2007conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2007displacement surge
- 1 Jun 2006external support
- Jun 2006conflict escalation
- May 2006conflict escalation
- Mar 2006conflict escalation
- 2006sovereign stress
- Jun 2005conflict escalation
- May 2005conflict escalation
- Apr 2005conflict escalation
- Jun 2004conflict escalation
- May 2004conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2004displacement surge
- 2004election
- Aug 2003conflict escalation
- Apr 2003conflict escalation
- Mar 2003conflict escalation
- Jul 2002conflict escalation
- 13 Nov 2001leadership break
- Nov 2001conflict escalation
- Oct 2001conflict escalation
- Jun 2001conflict escalation
- May 2001conflict escalation
- Jan 2001conflict escalation
- Aug 2000conflict escalation
- Jul 2000conflict escalation
- Apr 2000conflict escalation
- Mar 2000conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2000displacement surge
- 15 Oct 1999new sanctions
- Jul 1999conflict escalation
- May 1999conflict escalation
- Aug 1998conflict escalation
- Jul 1998conflict escalation
- Jan 1998conflict escalation
- Sep 1997conflict escalation
- May 1997conflict escalation
- Mar 1997conflict escalation
- 27 Sep 1996leadership break
- Sep 1996conflict escalation
- Oct 1995conflict escalation
- Apr 1995conflict escalation
- Mar 1995conflict escalation
- Feb 1995conflict escalation
- Jan 1995conflict escalation
- Jan 1994conflict escalation
- May 1993conflict escalation
- Jan 1993conflict escalation
- Aug 1992conflict escalation
- 16 Apr 1992leadership break
- Apr 1992conflict escalation
- 1992sovereign stress
- Mar 1991conflict escalation
- Oct 1990conflict escalation
- Apr 1990conflict escalation
- Mar 1990conflict escalation
- Feb 1990conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1990displacement surge
- Mar 1989conflict escalation
- 1989sovereign stress
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1987displacement surge
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1986displacement surge
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985sovereign stress
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1982capital controls
- 1 Jan 1982displacement surge
- 1982sovereign stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1981displacement surge
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1980displacement surge
- 1980sovereign stress
- 1980conflict escalation
- 27 Dec 1979leadership break
- 27 Mar 1979leadership break
- 1979conflict escalation
- 27 Apr 1978leadership break
- 1 Jan 1978capital controls
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1976sovereign stress
- 1 Jan 1974capital controls
- 17 Jul 1973leadership break
- 1972sovereign stress
- 1964sovereign stress
- 7 Sep 1953leadership break
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 57.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 86.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 85.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 84.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 90.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 78.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 90.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 93.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Liberia, 1999
Details
SLE, 2004
Published archive distance 0.084. This similarity is not a forecast.
BOL, 1989
Published archive distance 0.1129. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy45%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 4 of 8; Inferred: 4 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events62%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information87%Confirmed: 2 of 3; Sourced: 1 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society63%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 67.7The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Afghanistan in this snapshot
Afghanistan (AFG) records Strain pressure at 75.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is crisis; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 67.7.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Afghanistan has pressure score 75/100 in Strain. 20 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 21. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Türkiye (TUR), 76/100, higher by 1; Korea, Democratic People's Republic of (PRK), 75/100, tied.
Afghanistan's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 95); 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 95); 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 95); 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 69.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 69.8 | 57.9 | 73.8 | 0 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 80 | 74 | 86.8 | 5 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 81 | 73.8 | 90.5 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 89.7 | 77.9 | 95 | 8 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 87.8 | 71.9 | 95 | 4 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Afghanistan's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1976, 1978-2023; the minimum is 57.9 in 1949.
Every published year for Afghanistan, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Afghanistan is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-2025. The remaining 1 are below 65.
Afghanistan is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 61 of 80 readings: 1953-1957, 1964-1967, 1972-2023. The remaining 19 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Afghanistan is 2023 to 2024: Crisis (95) to Strain (71.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Afghanistan records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.