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Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

28.6 / 100

#141 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Trinidad and Tobago in November or December 2026: 0.5% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Trinidad and Tobago in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Trinidad and Tobago, or with Trinidad and Tobago as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.5% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population1.4M
CapitalPort of Spain
Area5.1k km²
GDP~$25.9B (2025)
CurrencyTTD
LanguagesEnglish
Armed forces5k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
65
L3 Politics
40
L4 Events
68.2
L5 Information
37.56
L6 Society
73.17

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 64.5 (1980s); lowest 30.5 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 5 · Country record

  • 1 Jan 2017capital controls
  • 1993currency stress
  • 1 Jun 1991external support
  • 1986currency stress
  • 1 Jan 1982capital controls

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Trinidad and Tobago · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194639.8Calmarchive reading
194739.8Calmarchive reading
194839.8Calmarchive reading
194928.2Calmarchive reading
195067.4Strainarchive reading
195156.5Watcharchive reading
195256.4Watcharchive reading
195356.4Watcharchive reading
195456.5Watcharchive reading
195556.1Watcharchive reading
195655.7Watcharchive reading
195755.6Watcharchive reading
195855.5Watcharchive reading
195955.4Watcharchive reading
196055.1Watcharchive reading
196155.0Watcharchive reading
196260.5Watcharchive reading
196359.5Watcharchive reading
196458.8Watcharchive reading
196558.1Watcharchive reading
196657.4Watcharchive reading
196756.9Watcharchive reading
196856.6Watcharchive reading
196956.2Watcharchive reading
197055.8Watcharchive reading
197155.6Watcharchive reading
197255.8Watcharchive reading
197355.7Watcharchive reading
197454.9Calmarchive reading
197553.1Calmarchive reading
197650.4Calmarchive reading
197748.6Calmarchive reading
197845.3Calmarchive reading
197944.2Calmarchive reading
198041.8Calmarchive reading
198156.7Watcharchive reading
198256.6Watcharchive reading
198367.9Strainarchive reading
198467.0Strainarchive reading
198566.9Strainarchive reading
198666.8Strainarchive reading
198766.8Strainarchive reading
198877.9Strainarchive reading
198977.0Strainarchive reading
199072.3Strainarchive reading
199153.9Calmarchive reading
199263.3Watcharchive reading
199363.2Watcharchive reading
199451.7Calmarchive reading
199549.4Calmarchive reading
199647.2Calmarchive reading
199744.8Calmarchive reading
199842.1Calmarchive reading
199939.2Calmarchive reading
200036.6Calmarchive reading
200138.7Calmarchive reading
200233.3Calmarchive reading
200329.2Calmarchive reading
200427.8Calmarchive reading
200527.5Calmarchive reading
200627.2Calmarchive reading
200726.9Calmarchive reading
200826.7Calmarchive reading
200957.6Watcharchive reading
201026.0Calmarchive reading
201157.4Watcharchive reading
201225.6Calmarchive reading
201329.3Calmarchive reading
201458.2Watcharchive reading
201526.6Calmarchive reading
201657.1Watcharchive reading
201757.2Watcharchive reading
201825.6Calmarchive reading
201955.8Watcharchive reading
202056.3Watcharchive reading
202123.0Calmarchive reading
202224.1Calmarchive reading
202324.4Calmarchive reading
202426.8Calmarchive reading
202528.6Calmarchive reading
Trinidad and Tobago · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202628.6Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Iceland, 1974

Details
Iceland, 1974France, 2004Netherlands, 1988

ISL, 1974

Published archive distance 0.428. This similarity is not a forecast.

FRA, 2004

Published archive distance 0.4547. This similarity is not a forecast.

NLD, 1988

Published archive distance 0.4807. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 27 Aug 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Trinidad and Tobago
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-170Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-271Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-143Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy53%
L3 Politics64%
L4 Events64%
L5 Information60%
L6 Society70%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 61.4

Trinidad and Tobago in this snapshot

Trinidad and Tobago (TTO) records Calm pressure at 28.6 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 61.4.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Trinidad and Tobago has pressure score 28.6/100 in Calm. 140 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 141. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Croatia (HRV), 28.9/100, higher by 0.3; Paraguay (PRY), 28.3/100, lower by 0.3.

Trinidad and Tobago's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 64.5). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 30.5). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Trinidad and Tobago: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949436.928.239.80
1950-19591057.155.467.40
1960-19691057.45560.50
1970-19791051.944.255.80
1980-19891064.541.877.90
1990-19991052.739.272.30
2000-20091033.126.757.60
2010-20191041.925.658.20
2020-2025630.52356.30

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Trinidad and Tobago's mapped-score peak is 77.9 in 1988; the minimum is 23 in 2021.

Trinidad and Tobago is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 43 of 80 readings: 1950-1973, 1981-1990, 1992-1993, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016-2017, 2019-2020. The remaining 37 are below 55.

Trinidad and Tobago is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 9 of 80 readings: 1950, 1983-1990. The remaining 71 are below 65.

Trinidad and Tobago never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Trinidad and Tobago is 2020 to 2021: Watch (56.3) to Calm (23). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Trinidad and Tobago records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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