BOL, 2011
Published archive distance 0.1445. This similarity is not a forecast.
SLE
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
58 / 100
#59 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Sierra Leone in November or December 2026: 1.2% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Sierra Leone in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Sierra Leone, or with Sierra Leone as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 1.2% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population8.8M8,819,794 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalFreetownFreetown
Area71.7k km²71740
GDP~$7.5B (2025)~7.46 USD bn (2025 WB); comparison estimate cites ~8.4B (Wikipedia 2024) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencySLESLE , Leone (redenominated 2022)
LanguagesEnglishEnglish
Armed forces9k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 92.9 (1990s); lowest 67.2 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 62 · Country record
- 1 Nov 2024external support
- 2023election
- 1 Nov 2018external support
- 2018election
- 1 Jun 2017external support
- 2016currency stress
- 1 Oct 2013external support
- 2012election
- 1 Jul 2010external support
- 1 Jan 2009capital controls
- 2007election
- 1 May 2006external support
Show all 62
- 2002election
- 1 Sep 2001external support
- Mar 2001conflict escalation
- Sep 2000conflict escalation
- Mar 2000conflict escalation
- Jan 2000conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1999capital controls
- Jan 1999conflict escalation
- Dec 1998conflict escalation
- Oct 1998conflict escalation
- Apr 1998conflict escalation
- Feb 1998conflict escalation
- 1998currency stress
- Dec 1997conflict escalation
- 8 Oct 1997new sanctions
- Jul 1997conflict escalation
- May 1997conflict escalation
- Mar 1997conflict escalation
- Nov 1996conflict escalation
- Oct 1996conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 1996currency stress
- 1996election
- Dec 1995conflict escalation
- Feb 1995conflict escalation
- Jan 1995conflict escalation
- 1995currency stress
- May 1994conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 1994external support
- Jan 1994conflict escalation
- Sep 1993conflict escalation
- Aug 1993conflict escalation
- Jan 1993conflict escalation
- Dec 1992conflict escalation
- May 1992conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1992capital controls
- 1992currency stress
- Dec 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- 1990currency stress
- 1989currency stress
- 1987currency stress
- 1986currency stress
- 1985currency stress
- 1985election
- 1984currency stress
- 1983currency stress
- 1 Jan 1982capital controls
- 1976currency stress
- 1970sovereign stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1950 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 84.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 83.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 83.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 82.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 93.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 89.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 78.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 79.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 93.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 73.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 71.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 81.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 73.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 72.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 64.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 56.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Bolivia, Plurinational State of, 2011
Details
MEX, 1956
Published archive distance 0.2098. This similarity is not a forecast.
ROU, 1979
Published archive distance 0.2114. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 25 Sep 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy76%Confirmed: 4 of 8; Sourced: 3 of 8; Inferred: 1 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics53%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 3 of 7; Inferred: 3 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events56%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 2 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 64.6The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Sierra Leone in this snapshot
Sierra Leone (SLE) records Watch pressure at 58.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 64.6.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Sierra Leone has pressure score 58/100 in Watch. 58 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 11 share this score. Its competition rank is 59. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Serbia (SRB), 58/100, tied; Uganda (UGA), 58/100, tied.
Sierra Leone's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 92.9). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 67.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 80 | 62.3 | 85.9 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 83.5 | 83 | 84.6 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 78.7 | 66.6 | 95 | 5 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 83.9 | 78.6 | 93.1 | 5 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 77.8 | 75.6 | 88.9 | 1 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 92.9 | 75.7 | 95 | 9 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 79.3 | 73.6 | 95 | 2 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 74.9 | 71.5 | 82.6 | 2 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 67.2 | 56.9 | 75.3 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Sierra Leone's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1967-1968, 1991-1992, 1994-2000; the minimum is 56.9 in 2025.
Every published year for Sierra Leone, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Sierra Leone is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 76 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-2020, 2022-2023. The remaining 4 are below 65.
Sierra Leone is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 37 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1961, 1967-1973, 1976, 1983, 1991-2001, 2015-2016. The remaining 43 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Sierra Leone is 2023 to 2024: Strain (75.3) to Watch (64.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Sierra Leone records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.