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Belgium

Belgium has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

18 / 100

#180 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Belgium in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Belgium in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Belgium, or with Belgium as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population11.9M
CapitalBrussels
Area30.5k km²
GDP$725.5B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesDutch + more
Armed forces24k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
38.34
L3 Politics
21.75
L4 Events
17
L5 Information
7.37
L6 Society
38.17

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 62.4 (1946-1949); lowest 20.4 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 11 · Country record

  • 26 Jan 2019street pressure
  • 24 May 2016street pressure
  • 23 Jan 2011street pressure
  • 16 Mar 1997street pressure
  • 15 Oct 1996street pressure
  • 13 Dec 1995street pressure
  • 25 Apr 1993street pressure
  • 1982currency stress
  • 1981currency stress
  • 1 Jan 1977capital controls
  • 1 Jul 1952external support

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Belgium · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194664.5Watcharchive reading
194763.4Watcharchive reading
194862.4Watcharchive reading
194959.2Watcharchive reading
195058.7Watcharchive reading
195151.2Calmarchive reading
195250.4Calmarchive reading
195349.1Calmarchive reading
195448.2Calmarchive reading
195546.7Calmarchive reading
195645.3Calmarchive reading
195744.6Calmarchive reading
195860.2Watcharchive reading
195943.1Calmarchive reading
196041.7Calmarchive reading
196141.1Calmarchive reading
196239.6Calmarchive reading
196338.5Calmarchive reading
196436.7Calmarchive reading
196536.1Calmarchive reading
196635.3Calmarchive reading
196733.9Calmarchive reading
196833.1Calmarchive reading
196931.9Calmarchive reading
197029.5Calmarchive reading
197128.2Calmarchive reading
197227.0Calmarchive reading
197324.8Calmarchive reading
197424.4Calmarchive reading
197555.5Watcharchive reading
197624.8Calmarchive reading
197723.5Calmarchive reading
197823.1Calmarchive reading
197923.0Calmarchive reading
198022.7Calmarchive reading
198155.3Watcharchive reading
198222.4Calmarchive reading
198323.5Calmarchive reading
198422.1Calmarchive reading
198521.9Calmarchive reading
198622.0Calmarchive reading
198721.9Calmarchive reading
198822.5Calmarchive reading
198921.5Calmarchive reading
199021.3Calmarchive reading
199121.7Calmarchive reading
199220.7Calmarchive reading
199354.4Calmarchive reading
199420.6Calmarchive reading
199520.5Calmarchive reading
199625.8Calmarchive reading
199720.3Calmarchive reading
199820.3Calmarchive reading
199920.2Calmarchive reading
200020.1Calmarchive reading
200120.0Calmarchive reading
200220.0Calmarchive reading
200319.9Calmarchive reading
200423.0Calmarchive reading
200519.9Calmarchive reading
200619.9Calmarchive reading
200719.7Calmarchive reading
200835.8Calmarchive reading
200953.3Calmarchive reading
201019.5Calmarchive reading
201119.5Calmarchive reading
201219.4Calmarchive reading
201324.8Calmarchive reading
201430.1Calmarchive reading
201524.7Calmarchive reading
201633.3Calmarchive reading
201719.5Calmarchive reading
201830.7Calmarchive reading
201916.0Calmarchive reading
202034.8Calmarchive reading
202117.1Calmarchive reading
202218.0Calmarchive reading
202316.4Calmarchive reading
202418.0Calmarchive reading
202518.0Calmarchive reading
Belgium · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202618.0Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Austria, 2006

Details
Austria, 2006Denmark, 1999Timor-Leste, 2012

AUT, 2006

Published archive distance 0.2444. This similarity is not a forecast.

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.2536. This similarity is not a forecast.

TLS, 2012

Published archive distance 0.2809. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Belgium
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-061Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-271Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-145Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z2Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics84%
L4 Events54%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society70%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 64.3

Belgium in this snapshot

Belgium (BEL) records Calm pressure at 18.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 64.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Belgium has pressure score 18/100 in Calm. 179 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 180. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Ireland (IRL), 18.1/100, higher by 0.1; Timor-Leste (TLS), 18/100, tied.

Belgium's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 62.4). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 20.4). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Belgium: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949462.459.264.50
1950-19591049.843.160.20
1960-19691036.831.941.70
1970-19791028.42355.50
1980-19891025.621.555.30
1990-19991024.620.254.40
2000-20091025.219.753.30
2010-20191023.81633.30
2020-2025620.416.434.80

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Belgium's mapped-score peak is 64.5 in 1946; the minimum is 16 in 2019.

Belgium is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 8 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1958, 1975, 1981. The remaining 72 are below 55.

Belgium never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Belgium never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Belgium is 1981 to 1982: Watch (55.3) to Calm (22.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Belgium records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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