DNK, 1977
Published archive distance 0.3101. This similarity is not a forecast.
KOR
Korea, Republic of
Korea, Republic of has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
60 / 100
#57 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in South Korea in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in South Korea in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of South Korea, or with South Korea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- <0.1% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population51.7M51,684,564 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalSeoulSeoul · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area100.2k km²100210 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$1.9T (2025)1.87237e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyKRWKRW · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesKoreanKorean · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces569k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 79.9 (1946-1949); lowest 33.3 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 116 · Country record
- 2025election
- 3 Dec 2024state of emergency
- 2022election
- 15 Aug 2018street pressure
- 22 Jan 2017street pressure
- 2017election
- 26 Oct 2016street pressure
- 5 Dec 2015street pressure
- 14 Nov 2015street pressure
- 18 Apr 2015street pressure
- 2012election
- 7 Nov 2010street pressure
Show all 116
- 7 Nov 2009street pressure
- 10 Jun 2009street pressure
- 22 Nov 2008street pressure
- 30 Aug 2008street pressure
- 1 Jun 2008street pressure
- 7 May 2008street pressure
- 11 Nov 2007street pressure
- 31 Aug 2007street pressure
- 1 May 2007street pressure
- 21 Mar 2007street pressure
- 2007election
- 1 Dec 2006street pressure
- 3 Nov 2006street pressure
- 15 Aug 2006street pressure
- 12 Jul 2006street pressure
- 28 Feb 2006street pressure
- 1 Dec 2005street pressure
- 17 Oct 2005street pressure
- 14 Aug 2005street pressure
- 7 Jul 2005street pressure
- 1 Apr 2005street pressure
- 17 Mar 2005street pressure
- 13 Nov 2004street pressure
- 11 Sep 2004street pressure
- 17 Apr 2004street pressure
- 12 Mar 2004street pressure
- 3 Feb 2004street pressure
- 9 Nov 2003street pressure
- 21 Aug 2003street pressure
- 2 Jul 2003street pressure
- 12 Jun 2003street pressure
- 1 May 2003street pressure
- 6 Nov 2002street pressure
- 1 May 2002street pressure
- 25 Feb 2002street pressure
- 2002election
- 2 Dec 2001street pressure
- 14 Nov 2001street pressure
- 27 Oct 2001street pressure
- 17 Aug 2001street pressure
- 12 Jun 2001street pressure
- 1 May 2001street pressure
- 5 Dec 2000street pressure
- 12 Nov 2000street pressure
- 5 Oct 2000street pressure
- 4 Sep 2000street pressure
- 7 Aug 2000street pressure
- 11 Jul 2000street pressure
- 4 Jun 2000street pressure
- 1 May 2000street pressure
- 5 Apr 2000street pressure
- 17 Feb 2000street pressure
- 9 Dec 1999street pressure
- 20 Nov 1999street pressure
- 15 Aug 1999street pressure
- 7 Jul 1999street pressure
- 16 Jun 1999street pressure
- 1 May 1999street pressure
- 24 Jan 1999street pressure
- 8 Nov 1998street pressure
- 28 Aug 1998street pressure
- 12 Jun 1998street pressure
- 1 May 1998street pressure
- 18 Apr 1998street pressure
- 1998currency stress
- 1 Dec 1997external support
- 23 Oct 1997street pressure
- 17 Mar 1997street pressure
- 3 Jan 1997street pressure
- 1997election
- 27 Dec 1996street pressure
- 14 Aug 1996street pressure
- 11 Apr 1996street pressure
- 5 Nov 1995street pressure
- 29 Sep 1995street pressure
- 29 May 1995street pressure
- 15 Aug 1994street pressure
- 10 May 1994street pressure
- 1 Feb 1994street pressure
- 6 Dec 1993street pressure
- 29 May 1993street pressure
- 14 Aug 1992street pressure
- 3 May 1992street pressure
- 1992election
- 2 Jun 1991street pressure
- 14 May 1991street pressure
- 29 Apr 1991street pressure
- 16 Mar 1991street pressure
- 14 Aug 1990street pressure
- 1 May 1990street pressure
- 1987election
- 1980currency stress
- 1971election
- 1967election
- 1965currency stress
- 1964currency stress
- 1963election
- 1961currency stress
- 1960currency stress
- 1960election
- 1956election
- 1955currency stress
- 1952election
- 1948election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 64.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 64.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1956 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1957 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 63.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 63.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 65.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1972 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 65.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1979 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1980 | 76.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 66.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 64.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1984 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1985 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1986 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1987 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1988 | 60.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1989 | 58.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1990 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 73.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 58.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1993 | 63.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1994 | 60.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1995 | 59.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1996 | 56.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1997 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1998 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1999 | 57.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2000 | 57.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 57.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2002 | 37.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2003 | 49.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2004 | 58.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 42.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2006 | 48.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2007 | 41.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2008 | 57.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 48.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2010 | 40.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2011 | 27.6 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2012 | 28.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2013 | 35.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2014 | 36.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2015 | 57.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 39.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2017 | 38.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2018 | 34.1 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2019 | 17.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2020 | 21.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2021 | 18.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2022 | 29.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2023 | 55.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 57.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 17.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Denmark, 1977
Details
NLD, 1984
Published archive distance 0.316. This similarity is not a forecast.
USA, 1977
Published archive distance 0.3215. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events30%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society47%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 3 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 2 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 55.7The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Korea, Republic of in this snapshot
Korea, Republic of (KOR) records Watch pressure at 60.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 55.7.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Korea, Republic of has pressure score 60/100 in Watch. 56 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 57. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Zimbabwe (ZWE), 62/100, higher by 2; Saudi Arabia (SAU), 60/100, tied.
Korea, Republic of's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 79.9). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 33.3). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 79.9 | 71.1 | 83.6 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 76.4 | 63.3 | 95 | 4 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 74.4 | 65 | 89.4 | 3 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 66.9 | 63.4 | 72.4 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 64.6 | 58.5 | 76.8 | 0 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 62.8 | 56.3 | 74.7 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 49.8 | 37.7 | 58 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 35.5 | 17.2 | 57.7 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 33.3 | 17.9 | 57.4 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Korea, Republic of's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1950-1953; the minimum is 17.2 in 2019.
Korea, Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 61 of 80 readings: 1946-2001, 2004, 2008, 2015, 2023-2024. The remaining 19 are below 55.
Korea, Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 28 of 80 readings: 1946-1953, 1960-1969, 1972-1976, 1980-1982, 1990-1991. The remaining 52 are below 65.
Korea, Republic of is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 10 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1953, 1961-1963. The remaining 70 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Korea, Republic of is 2024 to 2025: Watch (57.4) to Calm (17.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Korea, Republic of records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.