CassandrIA

Issue of 22 Oct 2026

The issue of 22 Oct 2026 used the method in place at the time; from 24 Oct 2026, estimates use the historical escalation rate for each country’s recent-death band, as explained in Method. The two issues address different dated questions over partly overlapping periods, so their figures should not be read as a change in risk between publication dates.
On 23 Oct 2026, after publication, the following resolution conventions were adopted for the questions published on 22 Oct 2026, covering October or November 2026. For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Record

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Afghanistan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Afghanistan, or with Afghanistan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
8.5% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Albania in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Albania, or with Albania as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Algeria in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Algeria, or with Algeria as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Andorra in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Andorra, or with Andorra as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Angola in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Angola, or with Angola as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Antigua and Barbuda in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Antigua and Barbuda, or with Antigua and Barbuda as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Argentina in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Argentina, or with Argentina as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
4.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Armenia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Armenia, or with Armenia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Australia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Australia, or with Australia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Austria in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Austria, or with Austria as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Azerbaijan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Azerbaijan, or with Azerbaijan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.9% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Bahamas in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Bahamas, or with the Bahamas as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Bahrain in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Bahrain, or with Bahrain as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Bangladesh in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Bangladesh, or with Bangladesh as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.8% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Barbados in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Barbados, or with Barbados as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Belarus in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Belarus, or with Belarus as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Belgium in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Belgium, or with Belgium as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Belize in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Belize, or with Belize as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Benin in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Benin, or with Benin as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.8% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Bermuda in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Bermuda, or with Bermuda as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Bhutan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Bhutan, or with Bhutan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Bolivia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Bolivia, or with Bolivia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.6% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Bosnia and Herzegovina in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, or with Bosnia and Herzegovina as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.6% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Botswana in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Botswana, or with Botswana as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Brazil in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Brazil, or with Brazil as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.8% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Brunei in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Brunei, or with Brunei as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Bulgaria in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Bulgaria, or with Bulgaria as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Burkina Faso in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Burkina Faso, or with Burkina Faso as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.8% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Burundi in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Burundi, or with Burundi as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
2.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Cabo Verde in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Cabo Verde, or with Cabo Verde as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Cambodia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Cambodia, or with Cambodia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Cameroon in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Cameroon, or with Cameroon as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
2.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Canada in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Canada, or with Canada as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Cayman Islands in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Cayman Islands, or with the Cayman Islands as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Central African Republic in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Central African Republic, or with the Central African Republic as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
2.5% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Chad in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Chad, or with Chad as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
2.2% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Chile in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Chile, or with Chile as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in China in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of China, or with China as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Colombia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Colombia, or with Colombia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
2.2% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Comoros in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Comoros, or with the Comoros as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Republic of the Congo in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Republic of the Congo, or with the Republic of the Congo as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Costa Rica in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Costa Rica, or with Costa Rica as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Croatia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Croatia, or with Croatia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Cuba in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Cuba, or with Cuba as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Cyprus in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Cyprus, or with Cyprus as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Czechia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Czechia, or with Czechia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Côte d'Ivoire in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Côte d'Ivoire, or with Côte d'Ivoire as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Denmark in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Denmark, or with Denmark as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Djibouti in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Djibouti, or with Djibouti as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Dominica in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Dominica, or with Dominica as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Dominican Republic in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Dominican Republic, or with the Dominican Republic as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, or with the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.9% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Ecuador in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Ecuador, or with Ecuador as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.7% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Egypt in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Egypt, or with Egypt as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.2% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in El Salvador in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of El Salvador, or with El Salvador as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Equatorial Guinea in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Equatorial Guinea, or with Equatorial Guinea as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Eritrea in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Eritrea, or with Eritrea as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.6% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Estonia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Estonia, or with Estonia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Eswatini in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Eswatini, or with Eswatini as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Ethiopia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Ethiopia, or with Ethiopia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
7.0% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Fiji in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Fiji, or with Fiji as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Finland in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Finland, or with Finland as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in France in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of France, or with France as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Gabon in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Gabon, or with Gabon as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Gambia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Gambia, or with the Gambia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Georgia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Georgia, or with Georgia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Germany in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Germany, or with Germany as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Ghana in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Ghana, or with Ghana as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Gibraltar in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Gibraltar, or with Gibraltar as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Greece in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Greece, or with Greece as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Greenland in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Greenland, or with Greenland as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Grenada in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Grenada, or with Grenada as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Guatemala in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Guatemala, or with Guatemala as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Guinea in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Guinea, or with Guinea as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Guinea-Bissau in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Guinea-Bissau, or with Guinea-Bissau as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.6% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Guyana in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Guyana, or with Guyana as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Haiti in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Haiti, or with Haiti as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
4.4% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Honduras in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Honduras, or with Honduras as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.8% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Hong Kong in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Hong Kong, or with Hong Kong as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Hungary in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Hungary, or with Hungary as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Iceland in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Iceland, or with Iceland as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in India in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of India, or with India as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.9% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Indonesia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Indonesia, or with Indonesia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.3% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Iran in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Iran, or with Iran as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
13% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Iraq in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Iraq, or with Iraq as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
2.4% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Ireland in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Ireland, or with Ireland as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Israel in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Israel, or with Israel as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.3% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Italy in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Italy, or with Italy as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.6% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Jamaica in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Jamaica, or with Jamaica as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Japan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Japan, or with Japan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Jordan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Jordan, or with Jordan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Kazakhstan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Kazakhstan, or with Kazakhstan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Kenya in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Kenya, or with Kenya as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.2% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Kiribati in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Kiribati, or with Kiribati as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Kosovo in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Kosovo, or with Kosovo as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Kuwait in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Kuwait, or with Kuwait as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Kyrgyzstan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Kyrgyzstan, or with Kyrgyzstan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Laos in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Laos, or with Laos as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Latvia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Latvia, or with Latvia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Lebanon in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Lebanon, or with Lebanon as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
13% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Lesotho in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Lesotho, or with Lesotho as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Liberia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Liberia, or with Liberia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Libya in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Libya, or with Libya as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.8% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Liechtenstein in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Liechtenstein, or with Liechtenstein as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Lithuania in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Lithuania, or with Lithuania as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Luxembourg in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Luxembourg, or with Luxembourg as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Macao in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Macao, or with Macao as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Madagascar in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Madagascar, or with Madagascar as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Malawi in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Malawi, or with Malawi as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Malaysia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Malaysia, or with Malaysia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Maldives in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Maldives, or with the Maldives as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Mali in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Mali, or with Mali as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
9.5% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Malta in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Malta, or with Malta as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Marshall Islands in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Marshall Islands, or with the Marshall Islands as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Mauritania in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Mauritania, or with Mauritania as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Mauritius in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Mauritius, or with Mauritius as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Mexico in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Mexico, or with Mexico as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.8% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Micronesia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Micronesia, or with Micronesia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Moldova in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Moldova, or with Moldova as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Monaco in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Monaco, or with Monaco as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Mongolia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Mongolia, or with Mongolia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Montenegro in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Montenegro, or with Montenegro as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Morocco in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Morocco, or with Morocco as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Mozambique in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Mozambique, or with Mozambique as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
2.7% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Myanmar in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Myanmar, or with Myanmar as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
4.5% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Namibia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Namibia, or with Namibia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Nauru in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Nauru, or with Nauru as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Nepal in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Nepal, or with Nepal as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Netherlands in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Netherlands, or with the Netherlands as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in New Caledonia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of New Caledonia, or with New Caledonia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in New Zealand in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of New Zealand, or with New Zealand as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Nicaragua in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Nicaragua, or with Nicaragua as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Niger in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Niger, or with Niger as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
2.5% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Nigeria in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Nigeria, or with Nigeria as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.8% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in North Korea in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of North Korea, or with North Korea as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.6% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in North Macedonia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of North Macedonia, or with North Macedonia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Norway in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Norway, or with Norway as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Oman in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Oman, or with Oman as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Pakistan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Pakistan, or with Pakistan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
4.5% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Palau in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Palau, or with Palau as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Palestine in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Palestine, or with Palestine as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
4.4% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Panama in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Panama, or with Panama as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Papua New Guinea in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Papua New Guinea, or with Papua New Guinea as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.3% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Paraguay in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Paraguay, or with Paraguay as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Peru in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Peru, or with Peru as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Philippines in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Philippines, or with the Philippines as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.8% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Poland in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Poland, or with Poland as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Portugal in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Portugal, or with Portugal as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Puerto Rico in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Puerto Rico, or with Puerto Rico as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Qatar in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Qatar, or with Qatar as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.6% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Romania in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Romania, or with Romania as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Russia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Russia, or with Russia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Rwanda in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Rwanda, or with Rwanda as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Samoa in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Samoa, or with Samoa as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in San Marino in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of San Marino, or with San Marino as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Saudi Arabia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Saudi Arabia, or with Saudi Arabia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Senegal in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Senegal, or with Senegal as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Serbia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Serbia, or with Serbia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Seychelles in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Seychelles, or with the Seychelles as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Sierra Leone in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Sierra Leone, or with Sierra Leone as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Singapore in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Singapore, or with Singapore as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Slovakia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Slovakia, or with Slovakia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Slovenia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Slovenia, or with Slovenia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Solomon Islands in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the Solomon Islands, or with the Solomon Islands as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Somalia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Somalia, or with Somalia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
5.0% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in South Africa in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of South Africa, or with South Africa as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in South Korea in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of South Korea, or with South Korea as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in South Sudan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of South Sudan, or with South Sudan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
5.0% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Spain in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Spain, or with Spain as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Sri Lanka in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Sri Lanka, or with Sri Lanka as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in St Kitts and Nevis in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of St Kitts and Nevis, or with St Kitts and Nevis as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in St Lucia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of St Lucia, or with St Lucia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in St Vincent and the Grenadines in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of St Vincent and the Grenadines, or with St Vincent and the Grenadines as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Sudan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Sudan, or with Sudan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
6.6% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Suriname in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Suriname, or with Suriname as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Sweden in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Sweden, or with Sweden as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Switzerland in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Switzerland, or with Switzerland as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Syria in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Syria, or with Syria as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
8.5% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in São Tomé and Príncipe in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of São Tomé and Príncipe, or with São Tomé and Príncipe as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Taiwan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Taiwan, or with Taiwan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Tajikistan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Tajikistan, or with Tajikistan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.9% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Tanzania in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Tanzania, or with Tanzania as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Thailand in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Thailand, or with Thailand as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Timor-Leste in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Timor-Leste, or with Timor-Leste as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Togo in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Togo, or with Togo as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Tonga in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Tonga, or with Tonga as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Trinidad and Tobago in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Trinidad and Tobago, or with Trinidad and Tobago as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Tunisia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Tunisia, or with Tunisia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Turkmenistan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Turkmenistan, or with Turkmenistan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Tuvalu in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Tuvalu, or with Tuvalu as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Türkiye in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Türkiye, or with Türkiye as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Uganda in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Uganda, or with Uganda as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
1.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Ukraine in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Ukraine, or with Ukraine as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
4.3% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the United Arab Emirates in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the United Arab Emirates, or with the United Arab Emirates as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the United Kingdom in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the United Kingdom, or with the United Kingdom as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in the United States in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of the United States, or with the United States as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Uruguay in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Uruguay, or with Uruguay as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Uzbekistan in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Uzbekistan, or with Uzbekistan as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Vanuatu in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Vanuatu, or with Vanuatu as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Vatican City in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Vatican City, or with Vatican City as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Venezuela in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Venezuela, or with Venezuela as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
13% · possible
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Vietnam in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Vietnam, or with Vietnam as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Western Sahara in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Western Sahara, or with Western Sahara as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.5% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Yemen in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Yemen, or with Yemen as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
21% · real chance
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Zambia in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Zambia, or with Zambia as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

Resolution conventions adopted 23 Oct 2026, after publication: see note at top
Chance of a conflict escalation in Zimbabwe in October or November 2026
What counts
In at least one calendar month that falls wholly or partly inside the window, organised violence on the territory of Zimbabwe, or with Zimbabwe as an active party, causes at least 25 battle-related deaths and at least twice the monthly average of the three months before. A conflict that stays at a steady high intensity does not count: the question measures a jump, not the existence of a war.
Months measured
the whole of October 2026 and the whole of November 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. Final answer by 5 Jan 2027.
Published
22 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.4% · remote
If data are unavailable
If UCDP has not published the month by then and no adequate substitute data exist, the question is void.

Current question: November or December 2026

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CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts