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New Zealand

New Zealand has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

40 / 100

#123 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in New Zealand in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in New Zealand in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of New Zealand, or with New Zealand as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population5.3M
CapitalWellington
Area270.5k km²
GDP$264.1B (2025)
CurrencyNZD
LanguagesEnglish + more
Armed forces10k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
47.94
L3 Politics
21.9
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
15.15
L6 Society
No reading in this snapshot

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 54.5 (1946-1949); lowest 18.4 (2010s).

Details

Recorded events 3 · Country record

  • 1998currency stress
  • 1976currency stress
  • 1968currency stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

New Zealand · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194655.6Watcharchive reading
194753.5Calmarchive reading
194855.9Watcharchive reading
194953.1Calmarchive reading
195046.9Calmarchive reading
195162.1Watcharchive reading
195241.9Calmarchive reading
195338.3Calmarchive reading
195432.9Calmarchive reading
195532.9Calmarchive reading
195632.1Calmarchive reading
195731.9Calmarchive reading
195831.3Calmarchive reading
195929.6Calmarchive reading
196030.4Calmarchive reading
196129.2Calmarchive reading
196229.2Calmarchive reading
196327.6Calmarchive reading
196427.1Calmarchive reading
196525.5Calmarchive reading
196623.1Calmarchive reading
196757.4Watcharchive reading
196857.5Watcharchive reading
196921.8Calmarchive reading
197056.9Watcharchive reading
197121.5Calmarchive reading
197220.3Calmarchive reading
197319.5Calmarchive reading
197419.1Calmarchive reading
197556.4Watcharchive reading
197619.0Calmarchive reading
197756.6Watcharchive reading
197819.6Calmarchive reading
197920.3Calmarchive reading
198018.9Calmarchive reading
198118.8Calmarchive reading
198218.8Calmarchive reading
198318.7Calmarchive reading
198418.7Calmarchive reading
198518.7Calmarchive reading
198618.6Calmarchive reading
198756.3Watcharchive reading
198818.6Calmarchive reading
198918.4Calmarchive reading
199018.4Calmarchive reading
199155.8Watcharchive reading
199218.4Calmarchive reading
199318.3Calmarchive reading
199418.3Calmarchive reading
199518.3Calmarchive reading
199618.3Calmarchive reading
199718.2Calmarchive reading
199818.2Calmarchive reading
199918.2Calmarchive reading
200018.2Calmarchive reading
200118.2Calmarchive reading
200218.1Calmarchive reading
200318.3Calmarchive reading
200418.3Calmarchive reading
200518.4Calmarchive reading
200618.4Calmarchive reading
200718.4Calmarchive reading
200855.7Watcharchive reading
200918.0Calmarchive reading
201018.0Calmarchive reading
201118.0Calmarchive reading
201218.0Calmarchive reading
201319.0Calmarchive reading
201418.8Calmarchive reading
201519.7Calmarchive reading
201619.1Calmarchive reading
201719.7Calmarchive reading
201818.3Calmarchive reading
201915.9Calmarchive reading
202017.0Calmarchive reading
202120.2Calmarchive reading
202218.0Calmarchive reading
202316.5Calmarchive reading
202421.7Calmarchive reading
202524.8Calmarchive reading
New Zealand · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202640Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Australia, 2015

Details
Australia, 2015Canada, 1977Austria, 1996

AUS, 2015

Published archive distance 0.0741. This similarity is not a forecast.

CAN, 1977

Published archive distance 0.1243. This similarity is not a forecast.

AUT, 1996

Published archive distance 0.127. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for New Zealand
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy60%
L3 Politics60%
L4 Events18%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 56.3

New Zealand in this snapshot

New Zealand (NZL) records Calm pressure at 40.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 56.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

3 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

New Zealand has pressure score 40/100 in Calm. 122 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 123. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Armenia (ARM), 40.1/100, higher by 0.1; Australia (AUS), 38/100, lower by 2.

New Zealand's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 54.5). The lowest is 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 18.4). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

New Zealand: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949454.553.155.90
1950-1959103829.662.10
1960-19691032.921.857.50
1970-19791030.91956.90
1980-19891022.418.456.30
1990-1999102218.255.80
2000-200910221855.70
2010-20191018.415.919.70
2020-2025619.716.524.80

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), New Zealand's mapped-score peak is 62.1 in 1951; the minimum is 15.9 in 2019.

New Zealand is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 11 of 80 readings: 1946, 1948, 1951, 1967-1968, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1987, 1991, 2008. The remaining 69 are below 55.

New Zealand never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

New Zealand never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for New Zealand is 2008 to 2009: Watch (55.7) to Calm (18). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

New Zealand records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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