equity
Turkey: local market stress
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a local market.
Point score: 13.7 low · pressure on local assets
Turkey
armed conflict activity · information disruption
TUR
Türkiye
Türkiye has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
76 / 100
#19 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Türkiye in November or December 2026: 26% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Türkiye in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Türkiye, or with Türkiye as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 26% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population85.9M85,878,556 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalAnkaraAnkara · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area783.6k km²783562 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$1.6T (2025)1.59729e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyTRYTRY · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesTurkishTurkish · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces512k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 88.8 (1946-1949); lowest 64.9 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 131 · Country record
- 19 Mar 2025street pressure
- 2023election
- Aug 2021conflict escalation
- Jun 2020conflict escalation
- May 2020conflict escalation
- 2020sovereign stress
- Jul 2019conflict escalation
- Jun 2019conflict escalation
- May 2019conflict escalation
- Mar 2018conflict escalation
- 2018currency stress
- 2018election
Show all 131
- Dec 2017conflict escalation
- Aug 2017conflict escalation
- Jun 2017conflict escalation
- May 2017conflict escalation
- Apr 2017conflict escalation
- 2017currency stress
- 2017sovereign stress
- 20 Jul 2016state of emergency
- Jul 2016conflict escalation
- Aug 2015conflict escalation
- Jul 2015conflict escalation
- 14 Feb 2015street pressure
- 2015currency stress
- 12 Mar 2014street pressure
- 12 Jan 2014street pressure
- 2014election
- 30 Jun 2013street pressure
- May 2013conflict escalation
- Sep 2012conflict escalation
- Aug 2012conflict escalation
- Jun 2012conflict escalation
- 19 Jan 2012street pressure
- Oct 2011conflict escalation
- Aug 2011conflict escalation
- Jul 2011conflict escalation
- 2011sovereign stress
- Jun 2010conflict escalation
- May 2010conflict escalation
- Sep 2009conflict escalation
- May 2009conflict escalation
- Apr 2009conflict escalation
- Jul 2008conflict escalation
- May 2008conflict escalation
- Apr 2008conflict escalation
- 2 Feb 2008street pressure
- Oct 2007conflict escalation
- 5 May 2007street pressure
- 14 Apr 2007street pressure
- Apr 2007conflict escalation
- Apr 2006conflict escalation
- Mar 2006conflict escalation
- 1 May 2005external support
- May 2005conflict escalation
- Apr 2005conflict escalation
- Jun 2004conflict escalation
- Nov 2003conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 2002external support
- 2002currency stress
- 11 Apr 2001street pressure
- 2001currency stress
- 1 Dec 2000street pressure
- Oct 2000conflict escalation
- 2000currency stress
- 1 Dec 1999external support
- 1999currency stress
- 1999sovereign stress
- 1998currency stress
- 29 Jul 1997street pressure
- 30 Jun 1997leadership break
- 11 May 1997street pressure
- May 1997conflict escalation
- Apr 1997conflict escalation
- 5 Jan 1997street pressure
- 1997currency stress
- Aug 1996conflict escalation
- Apr 1996conflict escalation
- 1996currency stress
- Apr 1995conflict escalation
- 1995currency stress
- 1 Jul 1994external support
- Apr 1994conflict escalation
- 1994currency stress
- Jul 1993conflict escalation
- Jun 1993conflict escalation
- May 1993conflict escalation
- 1993currency stress
- Sep 1992conflict escalation
- May 1992conflict escalation
- Apr 1992conflict escalation
- Mar 1992conflict escalation
- 1992currency stress
- Jul 1991conflict escalation
- Apr 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- Apr 1990conflict escalation
- 1990currency stress
- May 1989conflict escalation
- 1989currency stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987currency stress
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986currency stress
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985currency stress
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983currency stress
- 1982currency stress
- 1981currency stress
- 20 Sep 1980leadership break
- 1 Jun 1980external support
- 1980currency stress
- 1 Jul 1979external support
- 1979currency stress
- 1 May 1978external support
- 1978currency stress
- 1 Jan 1977external support
- 1977sovereign stress
- 12 Mar 1971leadership break
- 1971currency stress
- 1970currency stress
- 1970sovereign stress
- 1 Mar 1966external support
- 1965sovereign stress
- 1961currency stress
- 27 May 1960leadership break
- 1960currency stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 94.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 91.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 79.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 78.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 64.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1953 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 91.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 82.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1968 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 63.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 93.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 93.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 68.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 67.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 70.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 69.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 84.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 82.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 92.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 83.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 87.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 87.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2003 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 61.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 69.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 90.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 64.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 73.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 63.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76 | Strain | estimated |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
2 points
Point snapshot:
Details
chokepoint
Chokepoint Bosphorus
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a shipping lane.
Point score: 10.9 low · upward pressure
Turkey
armed conflict activity · information disruption
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Madagascar, 1969
Details
MDG, 1969
Published archive distance 0.1488. This similarity is not a forecast.
ISR, 1962
Published archive distance 0.1696. This similarity is not a forecast.
CIV, 1971
Published archive distance 0.1753. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy65%Confirmed: 1 of 8; Sourced: 7 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events30%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 4 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 1 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 58.6The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Türkiye in this snapshot
Türkiye (TUR) records Strain pressure at 76.0 of 100 and touches 2 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 58.6.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 2 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Türkiye has pressure score 76/100 in Strain. 18 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 19. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Egypt (EGY), 76/100, tied; Afghanistan (AFG), 75/100, lower by 1.
Türkiye's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 88.8). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 64.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 88.8 | 79.7 | 94.6 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 70.3 | 63.4 | 83.6 | 1 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 75.3 | 63 | 95 | 3 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 80 | 64.6 | 93 | 4 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 80.8 | 67.7 | 95 | 5 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 83.7 | 69.1 | 95 | 8 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 67.6 | 61.5 | 83.3 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 74.3 | 63.9 | 95 | 3 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 64.9 | 62.5 | 73.6 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Türkiye's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1960, 1980-1983, 1999, 2016; the minimum is 61.5 in 2005.
Every published year for Türkiye, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Türkiye is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 60 of 80 readings: 1946-1951, 1954-1965, 1970-1975, 1977-2001, 2007-2009, 2011-2012, 2014-2018, 2020. The remaining 20 are below 65.
Türkiye is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 28 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1954, 1960-1962, 1971-1972, 1974, 1979-1984, 1992-1999, 2001, 2015-2017. The remaining 52 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Türkiye is 2020 to 2021: Strain (73.6) to Watch (63.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Türkiye records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.