supply
Gold: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 0.6 low · upward pressure
Mali · Burkina Faso · Sudan
humanitarian pressure · information disruption
MLI
Mali
Mali has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
78 / 100
#14 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Mali in November or December 2026: 15% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Mali in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Mali, or with Mali as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 15% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population25.2M25,198,821 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBamakoBamako
Area1.2M km²1240192
GDP$30.1B (2025)USD 30.07 bn (2025, WB) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyXOFXOF - West African CFA franc
LanguagesFrenchFrench
Armed forces41k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 91.6 (2020-2025); lowest 75.3 (2000s).
Details
Recorded events 70 · Country record
- 25 Apr 2026conflict escalation
- Jun 2025conflict escalation
- 12 Jan 2024new sanctions
- Sep 2023conflict escalation
- Jul 2023conflict escalation
- Mar 2022conflict escalation
- Dec 2021conflict escalation
- Aug 2021conflict escalation
- 24 May 2021leadership break
- Oct 2020conflict escalation
- 18 Aug 2020leadership break
- Mar 2020conflict escalation
Show all 70
- 2020election
- Nov 2019conflict escalation
- 1 Aug 2019external support
- 5 Apr 2019street pressure
- Dec 2018conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 2018street pressure
- Mar 2018conflict escalation
- Feb 2018conflict escalation
- Jan 2018conflict escalation
- 2018election
- Jul 2017conflict escalation
- Jun 2017conflict escalation
- Jan 2017conflict escalation
- Jul 2016conflict escalation
- May 2016conflict escalation
- Dec 2015conflict escalation
- May 2015conflict escalation
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
- May 2014conflict escalation
- Feb 2014conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 2013external support
- Jan 2013conflict escalation
- 2013election
- Nov 2012conflict escalation
- 12 Aug 2012street pressure
- 22 Mar 2012leadership break
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 2011external support
- 22 Aug 2009street pressure
- Jul 2009conflict escalation
- Jun 2009conflict escalation
- Jan 2009conflict escalation
- 1 May 2008external support
- Apr 2008conflict escalation
- 2007election
- 1 Jun 2004external support
- 4 May 2002street pressure
- 2002election
- 1 Aug 1999external support
- 1997election
- 1 Apr 1996external support
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- Jun 1994conflict escalation
- 1994currency stress
- 1 Aug 1992external support
- Feb 1992conflict escalation
- 1992election
- 26 Mar 1991leadership break
- 22 Mar 1991street pressure
- 30 Dec 1990street pressure
- 1 Mar 1986external support
- 1985election
- 1982currency stress
- 1981currency stress
- 1979election
- 1970sovereign stress
- 19 Nov 1968leadership break
- 1964sovereign stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 89.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 92.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 69.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 68.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 85.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 94.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 89.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 88.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 76.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 76.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 75.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 87.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 75.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 79.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 92.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 94.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 79.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 69.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 64.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2003 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 88.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 85.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 91.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 88.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 94.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
1 point · Pressure mostly rising
Point snapshot:
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Cuba, 1966
Details
CUB, 1966
Published archive distance 0.1273. This similarity is not a forecast.
PER, 1996
Published archive distance 0.1305. This similarity is not a forecast.
LBR, 2008
Published archive distance 0.134. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy75%Confirmed: 3 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics79%Confirmed: 4 of 7; Sourced: 2 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events84%Confirmed: 3 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society87%Confirmed: 4 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 76.3The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Mali in this snapshot
Mali (MLI) records Strain pressure at 78.0 of 100 and touches 1 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is crisis; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 76.3.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 1 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Mali has pressure score 78/100 in Strain. 13 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 5 share this score. Its competition rank is 14. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Libya (LBY), 78/100, tied; Egypt (EGY), 76/100, lower by 2.
Mali's highest decade mean is recorded in 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 91.6). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 75.3). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 88.2 | 67.7 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 89.2 | 88.9 | 89.4 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 80.3 | 68.6 | 92.6 | 6 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 85.1 | 76.7 | 94.7 | 6 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 79.8 | 75.7 | 88.6 | 3 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 79.9 | 69.2 | 94.6 | 3 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 75.3 | 63.9 | 88.6 | 3 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 87.5 | 71.4 | 95 | 8 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 91.6 | 80.1 | 95 | 6 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Mali's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 2012-2013, 2018, 2020-2023; the minimum is 63.9 in 2005.
Every published year for Mali, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Mali is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 78 of 80 readings: 1946-2001, 2003-2004, 2006-2025. The remaining 2 are below 65.
Mali is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 48 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1962, 1964, 1967, 1969-1974, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1987, 1991-1992, 1994, 2007-2009, 2012-2025. The remaining 32 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Mali is 2011 to 2012: Strain (71.4) to Crisis (95). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Mali records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.