BWA, 2009
Published archive distance 0.2798. This similarity is not a forecast.
ARG
Argentina
Argentina has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
78 / 100
#14 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Argentina in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in Argentina in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Argentina, or with Argentina as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- <0.1% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population45.9M45,851,378 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBuenos AiresBuenos Aires · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area2.8M km²2780400 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$683.1B (2025)6.83098e+11 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyARSARS · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesGuaraní, SpanishGuaraní, Spanish · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces103k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyFewer than two documented fields can support a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshotLayer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 84 (1946-1949); lowest 58.5 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 127 · Country record
- 1 Apr 2025external support
- 2023election
- 1 Mar 2022external support
- 1 Jan 2019capital controls
- 2019currency stress
- 2019election
- 1 Jun 2018external support
- 2018currency stress
- 2016currency stress
- 5 Jun 2015street pressure
- 18 Feb 2015street pressure
- 24 Jan 2015street pressure
Show all 127
- 2015election
- 2014currency stress
- 2013currency stress
- 20 Nov 2012street pressure
- 1 Jan 2012capital controls
- 2011election
- 25 May 2008street pressure
- 12 Mar 2008street pressure
- 2007election
- 1 Jan 2006capital controls
- 1 Apr 2004street pressure
- 19 Feb 2004street pressure
- 26 Jan 2004street pressure
- 23 Dec 2003street pressure
- 1 Sep 2003external support
- 1 Jan 2003external support
- 2003election
- 2002currency stress
- 19 Dec 2001state of emergency
- 31 Aug 2001street pressure
- 19 Jul 2001street pressure
- 1 Jan 2001capital controls
- 23 Nov 2000street pressure
- 9 Jun 2000street pressure
- 1 Mar 2000external support
- 2000sovereign stress
- 5 Jul 1999street pressure
- 1999election
- 1 Feb 1998external support
- 21 May 1997street pressure
- 26 Sep 1996street pressure
- 26 Jul 1996street pressure
- 1 Apr 1996external support
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 1995election
- 6 Jul 1994street pressure
- 1994election
- 2 Jul 1992street pressure
- 1 Mar 1992external support
- 1991currency stress
- 31 Dec 1990street pressure
- 21 Mar 1990street pressure
- 20 Feb 1990street pressure
- 1990currency stress
- 1 May 1989external support
- 1989currency stress
- 1989election
- 1 Aug 1988external support
- 1988currency stress
- 1 Jul 1987external support
- 1987currency stress
- 1 Jul 1986external support
- 1986currency stress
- 1985currency stress
- 1 Dec 1984external support
- 1984currency stress
- 1 Dec 1983external support
- 1983currency stress
- 1983election
- 1 Sep 1982external support
- 17 Jun 1982leadership break
- 1 Jan 1982capital controls
- 1982currency stress
- 1982sovereign stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 11 Dec 1981leadership break
- 1981currency stress
- 1980currency stress
- 1979currency stress
- 1978currency stress
- 1977currency stress
- 1977conflict escalation
- 29 Mar 1976leadership break
- 1 Jan 1976external support
- 1976currency stress
- 1976sovereign stress
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975currency stress
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974currency stress
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973currency stress
- 1973election
- 1972currency stress
- 1 Apr 1971external support
- 22 Mar 1971leadership break
- 1 Jan 1971capital controls
- 8 Jun 1970leadership break
- 1 May 1968external support
- 1967currency stress
- 1 Dec 1966external support
- 28 Jun 1966leadership break
- 1966currency stress
- 1965currency stress
- 1965sovereign stress
- 1964currency stress
- 1963currency stress
- 1963election
- 1963conflict escalation
- 29 Mar 1962leadership break
- 1962currency stress
- 1960sovereign stress
- 1959currency stress
- 1958currency stress
- 1958election
- 1957election
- 1956currency stress
- 13 Nov 1955leadership break
- 20 Sep 1955leadership break
- 1955conflict escalation
- 1952currency stress
- 1951currency stress
- 1951election
- 1948election
- 1946election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 91.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 79.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1949 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 69.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1951 | 63.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1952 | 77.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1954 | 61.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1955 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 70.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 79.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 57.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 86.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 90.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 67.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 66.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 77.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 79.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 65.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 61.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1993 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 64.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1995 | 79.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 66.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 63.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1999 | 63.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2000 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 63.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2007 | 63.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 62.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 69.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 60.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 61.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 71.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 69.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 68.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 60.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 60.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 41.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78 | Crisis | estimated |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Botswana, 2009
Details
MDA, 2015
Published archive distance 0.3411. This similarity is not a forecast.
CYP, 1974
Published archive distance 0.3538. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events42%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 1 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 4 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 1 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 59.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Argentina in this snapshot
Argentina (ARG) records Strain pressure at 78.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 59.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Argentina has pressure score 78/100 in Strain. 13 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 5 share this score. Its competition rank is 14. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of (VEN), 80/100, higher by 2; China (CHN), 78/100, tied.
Argentina's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 84). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 58.5). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 84 | 70 | 95 | 2 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 74 | 61.5 | 87.7 | 3 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 76.5 | 57.3 | 87.2 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 79.5 | 70.9 | 95 | 4 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 74.1 | 66.3 | 83.1 | 1 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 67.5 | 61 | 79.6 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 68.5 | 62 | 79.4 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 65.9 | 60.6 | 71.3 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 58.5 | 41.9 | 70.8 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Argentina's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946, 1978; the minimum is 41.9 in 2024.
Argentina is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2023, 2025. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Argentina is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 57 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1952, 1955-1963, 1965-1991, 1993, 1995-1997, 2000-2002, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2016-2020. The remaining 23 are below 65.
Argentina is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 14 of 80 readings: 1946-1947, 1956-1957, 1959, 1963, 1967-1969, 1975-1978, 1982. The remaining 66 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Argentina is 2024 to 2025: Calm (41.9) to Watch (55). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Argentina records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.