{
  "schema": "cassandria.pythia_precision_errata.v1",
  "errata_id": "D9261-2026-10-22-precision",
  "issued_at": "2026-10-23T10:26:52Z",
  "authority": {
    "decision": "D9261",
    "mandate_sha256": "fb0ba9e1d99510d519fc56827b3955c4535e1f691ff7aff7a44a5e0e179474d5"
  },
  "issue_date": "2026-10-22",
  "original_issue_sha256": "94d2f3802d7f616d40ca75d1c8b82871d0e66734d65a7476674ac75274204be3",
  "sealed_ledger_sha256": "cfe254994e1bfcbebb615217a4fb6a6260fa3b1847a4bf1bdf83344b3ffe7455",
  "event_class": "ESCALATION_CONFLITTO",
  "country_count": 206,
  "probability_rule": {
    "source": "sealed_ledger",
    "generators": [
      "G0",
      "G1"
    ],
    "horizon": "3T",
    "exclude_altitude": "ALMANACCO",
    "aggregation": "maximum_per_country_and_class",
    "precision": "original_numeric_probability_no_intermediate_rounding"
  },
  "display_rule": {
    "input": "countries[ISO3].probability",
    "rounding": "ROUND_HALF_UP",
    "threshold_probability": 0.001,
    "below_threshold_label": "<0.1%",
    "one_decimal_below_probability": 0.1,
    "otherwise_decimal_places": 0,
    "unit": "percent",
    "intermediate_rounding": false
  },
  "evaluation_rule": {
    "input": "countries[ISO3].probability",
    "rounding": "none",
    "applies_to": "2026-10-22 published conflict-escalation estimates",
    "outcome_definition": "unchanged",
    "issue_archive": "unchanged"
  },
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    "DEU": {
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    "DMA": {
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    "DZA": {
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    "ECU": {
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    "EGY": {
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    "ERI": {
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    "EST": {
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    "ETH": {
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    "FSM": {
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    "GAB": {
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    "GBR": {
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    "GNB": {
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    "KHM": {
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    "LVA": {
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    "MAR": {
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    "MDG": {
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    "MDV": {
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    "MEX": {
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    "MKD": {
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    "MRT": {
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    "MUS": {
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    "MWI": {
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    "MYS": {
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    "NAM": {
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    "NCL": {
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    "NER": {
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    "NGA": {
      "probability": 0.008053
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    "NIC": {
      "probability": 0.004054
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    "NLD": {
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    "NOR": {
      "probability": 0.000362
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    "NPL": {
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    "NRU": {
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    "NZL": {
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    "OMN": {
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    "PAK": {
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    "PAN": {
      "probability": 0.000355
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    "PER": {
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    "PHL": {
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    "PLW": {
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    "PNG": {
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    "POL": {
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    "PRI": {
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    "PRK": {
      "probability": 0.016043
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    "PRT": {
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    "PRY": {
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    "PSE": {
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    "ROU": {
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    "RUS": {
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    "RWA": {
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      "probability": 0.001184
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    "SEN": {
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    "SGP": {
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    "SOM": {
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    "SRB": {
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    "SSD": {
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    "SVK": {
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    "SWZ": {
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    "THA": {
      "probability": 0.011352
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      "probability": 0.00888
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    "TKM": {
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    "TLS": {
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    "TTO": {
      "probability": 0.000131
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    "TZA": {
      "probability": 0.011037
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    "UGA": {
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    "UKR": {
      "probability": 0.04326
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      "probability": 0.000791
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    "URY": {
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    "USA": {
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    "UZB": {
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    "VAT": {
      "probability": 0.000131
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    "VCT": {
      "probability": 0.000314
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    "VEN": {
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    "VNM": {
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    "VUT": {
      "probability": 0.000314
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    "WSM": {
      "probability": 0.000131
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    "YEM": {
      "probability": 0.208907
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    "ZAF": {
      "probability": 0.000958
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    "ZMB": {
      "probability": 0.000314
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    "ZWE": {
      "probability": 0.004054
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  },
  "display_differences_from_rounded_issue": [
    {
      "iso3": "BDI",
      "rounded_issue_probability": 0.0215,
      "full_probability": 0.021467,
      "rounded_issue_label": "2.2%",
      "full_probability_label": "2.1%"
    },
    {
      "iso3": "BGD",
      "rounded_issue_probability": 0.0185,
      "full_probability": 0.018467,
      "rounded_issue_label": "1.9%",
      "full_probability_label": "1.8%"
    },
    {
      "iso3": "CMR",
      "rounded_issue_probability": 0.0215,
      "full_probability": 0.021467,
      "rounded_issue_label": "2.2%",
      "full_probability_label": "2.1%"
    },
    {
      "iso3": "GNB",
      "rounded_issue_probability": 0.0065,
      "full_probability": 0.00649,
      "rounded_issue_label": "0.7%",
      "full_probability_label": "0.6%"
    },
    {
      "iso3": "HND",
      "rounded_issue_probability": 0.0185,
      "full_probability": 0.018467,
      "rounded_issue_label": "1.9%",
      "full_probability_label": "1.8%"
    },
    {
      "iso3": "KEN",
      "rounded_issue_probability": 0.0125,
      "full_probability": 0.012499,
      "rounded_issue_label": "1.3%",
      "full_probability_label": "1.2%"
    },
    {
      "iso3": "ZAF",
      "rounded_issue_probability": 0.001,
      "full_probability": 0.000958,
      "rounded_issue_label": "0.1%",
      "full_probability_label": "<0.1%"
    }
  ]
}