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Australia

Australia has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

38 / 100

#124 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Australia in November or December 2026: 0.7% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Australia in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Australia, or with Australia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.7% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population27.6M
CapitalCanberra
Area7.7M km²
GDP$1.8T (2025)
CurrencyAUD
LanguagesEnglish
Armed forces60k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
34.88
L3 Politics
22.11
L4 Events
2
L5 Information
19.57
L6 Society
No reading in this snapshot

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 49 (1946-1949); lowest 19.6 (1970s).

Details

Recorded events 1 · Country record

  • 1985currency stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Australia · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194651.5Calmarchive reading
194751.1Calmarchive reading
194848.9Calmarchive reading
194944.3Calmarchive reading
195044.6Calmarchive reading
195134.2Calmarchive reading
195257.1Watcharchive reading
195332.2Calmarchive reading
195431.3Calmarchive reading
195530.6Calmarchive reading
195630.3Calmarchive reading
195730.3Calmarchive reading
195829.5Calmarchive reading
195928.3Calmarchive reading
196027.7Calmarchive reading
196128.2Calmarchive reading
196227.4Calmarchive reading
196326.4Calmarchive reading
196424.6Calmarchive reading
196522.7Calmarchive reading
196623.0Calmarchive reading
196720.5Calmarchive reading
196819.5Calmarchive reading
196919.4Calmarchive reading
197019.4Calmarchive reading
197119.4Calmarchive reading
197219.3Calmarchive reading
197319.2Calmarchive reading
197419.1Calmarchive reading
197519.1Calmarchive reading
197620.8Calmarchive reading
197720.3Calmarchive reading
197819.9Calmarchive reading
197919.0Calmarchive reading
198018.9Calmarchive reading
198118.9Calmarchive reading
198253.1Calmarchive reading
198318.8Calmarchive reading
198418.7Calmarchive reading
198518.7Calmarchive reading
198618.7Calmarchive reading
198718.6Calmarchive reading
198818.8Calmarchive reading
198935.0Calmarchive reading
199052.4Calmarchive reading
199118.6Calmarchive reading
199218.6Calmarchive reading
199318.8Calmarchive reading
199419.0Calmarchive reading
199518.9Calmarchive reading
199618.5Calmarchive reading
199719.5Calmarchive reading
199819.5Calmarchive reading
199919.6Calmarchive reading
200018.4Calmarchive reading
200118.3Calmarchive reading
200218.9Calmarchive reading
200365.8Strainarchive reading
200419.2Calmarchive reading
200518.4Calmarchive reading
200618.4Calmarchive reading
200718.2Calmarchive reading
200818.2Calmarchive reading
200918.1Calmarchive reading
201018.1Calmarchive reading
201118.1Calmarchive reading
201218.1Calmarchive reading
201323.2Calmarchive reading
201424.2Calmarchive reading
201522.7Calmarchive reading
201618.1Calmarchive reading
201718.5Calmarchive reading
201818.4Calmarchive reading
201956.4Watcharchive reading
202026.4Calmarchive reading
202127.6Calmarchive reading
202217.8Calmarchive reading
202317.8Calmarchive reading
202417.8Calmarchive reading
202518.4Calmarchive reading
Australia · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202638Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Sweden, 1984

Details
Sweden, 1984Belgium, 1988Canada, 1989

SWE, 1984

Published archive distance 0.1596. This similarity is not a forecast.

BEL, 1988

Published archive distance 0.1624. This similarity is not a forecast.

CAN, 1989

Published archive distance 0.1637. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Australia
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy53%
L3 Politics71%
L4 Events30%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society57%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 56.9

Australia in this snapshot

Australia (AUS) records Calm pressure at 38.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 56.9.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Australia has pressure score 38/100 in Calm. 123 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 124. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): New Zealand (NZL), 40/100, higher by 2; Finland (FIN), 38/100, tied.

Australia's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 49). The lowest is 1970-1979 (10 readings, mean 19.6). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Australia: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-194944944.351.50
1950-19591034.828.357.10
1960-19691023.919.428.20
1970-19791019.61920.80
1980-19891023.818.653.10
1990-19991022.318.552.40
2000-20091023.218.165.80
2010-20191023.618.156.40
2020-202562117.827.60

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Australia's mapped-score peak is 65.8 in 2003; the minimum is 17.8 in 2022-2024.

Australia is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 3 of 80 readings: 1952, 2003, 2019. The remaining 77 are below 55.

Australia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 1 of 80 readings: 2003. The remaining 79 are below 65.

Australia never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Australia is 2019 to 2020: Watch (56.4) to Calm (26.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Australia records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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