CassandrIA
CYPCyprus flag

Cyprus

Cyprus has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

17.9 / 100

#182 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Cyprus in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Cyprus in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Cyprus, or with Cyprus as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population1.4M
CapitalNicosia
Area9.3k km²
GDP$41.2B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesGreek, Turkish
Armed forces13k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
13.35
L3 Politics
43.33
L4 Events
24.6
L5 Information
23.63
L6 Society
45

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 71 (1946-1949); lowest 30.2 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 30 · Country record

  • 2023election
  • 2018election
  • 1 May 2013external support
  • 2013sovereign stress
  • 2013election
  • 1 Jan 2012capital controls
  • 2 Mar 2011street pressure
  • 28 Jan 2011street pressure
  • 2008election
  • 15 Apr 2004street pressure
  • 27 Feb 2003street pressure
  • 14 Jan 2003street pressure
Show all 30
  • 2003election
  • 26 Dec 2002street pressure
  • 27 Nov 2002street pressure
  • 1998election
  • 1 Jan 1996capital controls
  • 1993election
  • 16 Mar 1990street pressure
  • 1988election
  • 1983election
  • 15 Jul 1974leadership break
  • 1974conflict escalation
  • 1968election
  • 1959election
  • 1959conflict escalation
  • 1958conflict escalation
  • 1957conflict escalation
  • 1956conflict escalation
  • 1955conflict escalation

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Cyprus · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194675.2Strainarchive reading
194775.2Strainarchive reading
194875.2Strainarchive reading
194958.4Watcharchive reading
195073.5Strainarchive reading
195162.3Watcharchive reading
195262.1Watcharchive reading
195362.1Watcharchive reading
195462.1Watcharchive reading
195568.0Strainarchive reading
195668.0Strainarchive reading
195767.9Strainarchive reading
195877.8Strainarchive reading
195966.3Strainarchive reading
196082.6Crisisarchive reading
196165.2Strainarchive reading
196264.0Watcharchive reading
196365.8Strainarchive reading
196480.7Crisisarchive reading
196565.6Strainarchive reading
196665.3Strainarchive reading
196764.6Watcharchive reading
196864.5Watcharchive reading
196963.3Watcharchive reading
197062.4Watcharchive reading
197161.6Watcharchive reading
197260.6Watcharchive reading
197360.0Watcharchive reading
197494.6Crisisarchive reading
197576.0Strainarchive reading
197660.6Watcharchive reading
197759.2Watcharchive reading
197858.3Watcharchive reading
197957.1Watcharchive reading
198056.2Watcharchive reading
198155.9Watcharchive reading
198255.4Watcharchive reading
198354.9Calmarchive reading
198451.6Calmarchive reading
198549.7Calmarchive reading
198648.2Calmarchive reading
198745.1Calmarchive reading
198842.0Calmarchive reading
198938.2Calmarchive reading
199035.6Calmarchive reading
199135.7Calmarchive reading
199232.8Calmarchive reading
199333.0Calmarchive reading
199431.4Calmarchive reading
199531.0Calmarchive reading
199630.9Calmarchive reading
199730.2Calmarchive reading
199831.5Calmarchive reading
199931.5Calmarchive reading
200028.5Calmarchive reading
200128.2Calmarchive reading
200227.9Calmarchive reading
200327.7Calmarchive reading
200427.4Calmarchive reading
200527.2Calmarchive reading
200627.0Calmarchive reading
200726.8Calmarchive reading
200832.5Calmarchive reading
200963.1Watcharchive reading
201044.6Calmarchive reading
201144.4Calmarchive reading
201261.5Watcharchive reading
201369.9Strainarchive reading
201462.6Watcharchive reading
201523.2Calmarchive reading
201623.1Calmarchive reading
201724.0Calmarchive reading
201827.0Calmarchive reading
201920.6Calmarchive reading
202049.6Calmarchive reading
202130.0Calmarchive reading
202235.6Calmarchive reading
202326.0Calmarchive reading
202421.9Calmarchive reading
202517.9Calmarchive reading
Cyprus · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202617.9Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Portugal, 1999

Details
Portugal, 1999Germany, 1981Italy, 1981

PRT, 1999

Published archive distance 0.2239. This similarity is not a forecast.

DEU, 1981

Published archive distance 0.241. This similarity is not a forecast.

ITA, 1981

Published archive distance 0.2515. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Cyprus
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-061Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-271Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-144Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z3Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics84%
L4 Events48%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society70%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 63.4

Cyprus in this snapshot

Cyprus (CYP) records Calm pressure at 17.9 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 63.4.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Cyprus has pressure score 17.9/100 in Calm. 181 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 182. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Timor-Leste (TLS), 18/100, higher by 0.1; Czechia (CZE), 17.5/100, lower by 0.4.

Cyprus's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 71). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 30.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Cyprus: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-194947158.475.20
1950-1959106762.177.80
1960-19691068.263.382.62
1970-1979106557.194.61
1980-19891049.738.256.20
1990-19991032.430.235.70
2000-20091031.626.863.10
2010-20191040.120.669.90
2020-2025630.217.949.60

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Cyprus's mapped-score peak is 94.6 in 1974; the minimum is 17.9 in 2025.

Cyprus is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 41 of 80 readings: 1946-1982, 2009, 2012-2014. The remaining 39 are below 55.

Cyprus is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 18 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950, 1955-1961, 1963-1966, 1974-1975, 2013. The remaining 62 are below 65.

Cyprus is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 3 of 80 readings: 1960, 1964, 1974. The remaining 77 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Cyprus is 2014 to 2015: Watch (62.6) to Calm (23.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Cyprus records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts