equity
India: local market stress
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a local market.
Point score: 68.8 high · pressure on local assets
India
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure
IND
India
India has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
56 / 100
#70 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in India in November or December 2026: 25% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in India in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of India, or with India as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 25% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population1.5B1,463,865,525 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalNew DelhiNew Delhi · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area3.3M km²3287590 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$4T (2025)3.95607e+12 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyINRINR · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesEnglish + moreEnglish, Hindi, Tamil · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces3.1M (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyFewer than two documented fields can support a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshotLayer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 95 (1946-1949); lowest 71.9 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 112 · Country record
- Apr 2024conflict escalation
- May 2023conflict escalation
- Apr 2023conflict escalation
- Nov 2021conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2020street pressure
- 13 Dec 2019street pressure
- 9 Aug 2019street pressure
- 1 Jan 2019street pressure
- 30 Nov 2018street pressure
- 2 Apr 2018street pressure
- 25 Aug 2017street pressure
- 25 Aug 2015street pressure
Show all 112
- Jun 2015conflict escalation
- 22 Apr 2015street pressure
- Dec 2014conflict escalation
- 20 Feb 2013street pressure
- 17 Dec 2012street pressure
- 20 Sep 2012street pressure
- 31 May 2012street pressure
- 19 Mar 2012street pressure
- Jan 2012conflict escalation
- 24 Nov 2011street pressure
- 4 Jun 2011street pressure
- 31 Jan 2011street pressure
- May 2010conflict escalation
- 3 Sep 2009street pressure
- 3 Dec 2008street pressure
- 28 Aug 2008street pressure
- 23 Jun 2008street pressure
- 2 Oct 2007street pressure
- 14 Mar 2007street pressure
- 5 Nov 2006street pressure
- Jul 2006conflict escalation
- Feb 2006conflict escalation
- 20 Aug 2004street pressure
- Jan 2004conflict escalation
- Feb 2002conflict escalation
- Jan 2002conflict escalation
- 30 Jun 2001street pressure
- Jan 2001conflict escalation
- Jan 2000conflict escalation
- May 1999conflict escalation
- 4 Dec 1998street pressure
- Jun 1998conflict escalation
- 12 Jan 1998street pressure
- Dec 1997conflict escalation
- 3 Oct 1997street pressure
- Jun 1997conflict escalation
- Dec 1996conflict escalation
- May 1996conflict escalation
- Jan 1996conflict escalation
- May 1995conflict escalation
- Jan 1995conflict escalation
- 23 Nov 1994street pressure
- Jul 1994conflict escalation
- May 1994conflict escalation
- 4 Apr 1994street pressure
- Jan 1994conflict escalation
- May 1993conflict escalation
- Jan 1993conflict escalation
- Dec 1992conflict escalation
- 17 Jun 1992street pressure
- Jun 1992conflict escalation
- Jan 1992conflict escalation
- 1992sovereign stress
- May 1991conflict escalation
- Jan 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- 1 Oct 1990external support
- Oct 1990conflict escalation
- 1 Aug 1990street pressure
- 1 May 1990street pressure
- 23 Feb 1990street pressure
- Jan 1990conflict escalation
- Oct 1989conflict escalation
- Aug 1989conflict escalation
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 31 Oct 1984leadership break
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1 Nov 1975external support
- 1972sovereign stress
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967sovereign stress
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966currency stress
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 1965external support
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964conflict escalation
- 1963conflict escalation
- 1962conflict escalation
- 1961conflict escalation
- 1959conflict escalation
- 1958conflict escalation
- 1957conflict escalation
- 1956conflict escalation
- 1951conflict escalation
- 1950conflict escalation
- 1949conflict escalation
- 1948conflict escalation
- 1946election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 91.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 68.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 65.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 72.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 90.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 92.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 91.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1979 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 70.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 68.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 67.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 86.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 81.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 83.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 83.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 83.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 80.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 91.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 87.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 88.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 91.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 80.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 82.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 91.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 88.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 68.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 67.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 69.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 65.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
3 points
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Rice: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 33.0 elevated · upward pressure
India · Pakistan
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption
supply
Crude oil: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 11.1 low · upward pressure
India · Iran · Nigeria · Mexico · Russia · China · Venezuela
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption · protest activity
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2001
Details
BIH, 2001
Published archive distance 0.1904. This similarity is not a forecast.
PER, 2005
Published archive distance 0.2063. This similarity is not a forecast.
IRN, 1962
Published archive distance 0.2431. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy53%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 7 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 1 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events54%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 4 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 1 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 59.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
India in this snapshot
India (IND) records Watch pressure at 56.0 of 100 and touches 3 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 59.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 3 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
India has pressure score 56/100 in Watch. 69 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 70. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Uganda (UGA), 58/100, higher by 2; Papua New Guinea (PNG), 56/100, tied.
India's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 71.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 4 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 75.3 | 68.6 | 95 | 2 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 77.4 | 65.9 | 95 | 5 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 82.2 | 64.5 | 95 | 7 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 72.6 | 67.9 | 86.5 | 2 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 86 | 80.7 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 86.9 | 80.6 | 91.9 | 10 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 85.8 | 78.3 | 95 | 8 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 71.9 | 65.8 | 88.6 | 1 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), India's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1950, 1965, 1972, 1990, 2017, 2019; the minimum is 64.5 in 1978.
Every published year for India, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
India is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-1977, 1979-2025. The remaining 1 are below 65.
India is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 49 of 80 readings: 1946-1951, 1962, 1965-1968, 1971-1976, 1979, 1988-2010, 2012-2014, 2016-2020. The remaining 31 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for India is 2020 to 2021: Crisis (88.6) to Strain (71.8). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
India records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.