Precision correction for the 22 October 2026 forecasts

The archived public issue stores probabilities rounded to four decimal places. Displaying those rounded values can produce seven percentages that differ from those calculated from the full probabilities. We will use the full probabilities recorded in the sealed ledger for both display and evaluation. The archived issue remains unchanged.

On the country pages and in the Record, Burundi and Cameroon retain 2.1%, Bangladesh and Honduras retain 1.8%, and Kenya retains 1.2%. The Oracle’s country table changes Kenya from 1.3% to 1.2%. Guinea-Bissau changes from 0.7% to 0.6%, and South Africa from 0.1% to less than 0.1%, across these views.

These figures come from the original forecasts recorded before the outcomes. The forecast questions and their resolution rules are unchanged.