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Singapore

Singapore has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

32 / 100

#133 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Singapore in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Singapore in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Singapore, or with Singapore as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population6.1M
CapitalSingapore
Area710 km²
GDP$603.9B (2025)
CurrencySGD
LanguagesEnglish + more
Armed forces59k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
63.03
L3 Politics
49.72
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
58.88
L6 Society
58.97

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 70.6 (1950s); lowest 22.8 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 4 · Country record

  • 2023election
  • 2011election
  • 1 Jan 1997capital controls
  • 1993election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Singapore · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194672.4Strainarchive reading
194763.0Watcharchive reading
194863.0Watcharchive reading
194952.7Calmarchive reading
195067.7Strainarchive reading
195167.9Strainarchive reading
195269.9Strainarchive reading
195369.0Strainarchive reading
195468.2Strainarchive reading
195568.6Strainarchive reading
195668.2Strainarchive reading
195768.7Strainarchive reading
195879.4Strainarchive reading
195978.6Strainarchive reading
196078.3Strainarchive reading
196166.9Strainarchive reading
196266.8Strainarchive reading
196356.9Watcharchive reading
196475.3Strainarchive reading
196569.9Strainarchive reading
196668.3Strainarchive reading
196762.9Watcharchive reading
196860.8Watcharchive reading
196968.0Strainarchive reading
197065.3Strainarchive reading
197164.4Watcharchive reading
197263.4Watcharchive reading
197362.5Watcharchive reading
197455.1Watcharchive reading
197553.8Calmarchive reading
197651.2Calmarchive reading
197760.4Watcharchive reading
197859.6Watcharchive reading
197958.8Watcharchive reading
198057.9Watcharchive reading
198157.1Watcharchive reading
198236.0Calmarchive reading
198332.8Calmarchive reading
198432.1Calmarchive reading
198571.6Strainarchive reading
198658.9Watcharchive reading
198758.8Watcharchive reading
198842.3Calmarchive reading
198941.7Calmarchive reading
199039.7Calmarchive reading
199126.6Calmarchive reading
199226.3Calmarchive reading
199327.0Calmarchive reading
199427.1Calmarchive reading
199525.6Calmarchive reading
199655.1Watcharchive reading
199755.0Watcharchive reading
199863.9Watcharchive reading
199954.8Calmarchive reading
200054.6Calmarchive reading
200165.3Strainarchive reading
200254.3Calmarchive reading
200354.3Calmarchive reading
200424.1Calmarchive reading
200524.2Calmarchive reading
200623.7Calmarchive reading
200723.5Calmarchive reading
200823.4Calmarchive reading
200923.3Calmarchive reading
201023.2Calmarchive reading
201123.1Calmarchive reading
201222.9Calmarchive reading
201322.8Calmarchive reading
201422.7Calmarchive reading
201529.6Calmarchive reading
201622.5Calmarchive reading
201722.4Calmarchive reading
201824.8Calmarchive reading
201925.6Calmarchive reading
202042.9Calmarchive reading
202122.9Calmarchive reading
202221.0Calmarchive reading
202316.7Calmarchive reading
202416.7Calmarchive reading
202516.7Calmarchive reading
Singapore · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202632Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Denmark, 1999

Details
Denmark, 1999Austria, 2006Canada, 1997

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.1985. This similarity is not a forecast.

AUT, 2006

Published archive distance 0.2102. This similarity is not a forecast.

CAN, 1997

Published archive distance 0.2304. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Singapore
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy60%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events18%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 57.4

Singapore in this snapshot

Singapore (SGP) records Calm pressure at 32.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 57.4.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Singapore has pressure score 32/100 in Calm. 132 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 133. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Costa Rica (CRI), 32.3/100, higher by 0.3; Liberia (LBR), 31/100, lower by 1.

Singapore's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 70.6). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 22.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Singapore: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949462.852.772.40
1950-19591070.667.779.40
1960-19691067.456.978.30
1970-19791059.551.265.30
1980-19891048.932.171.60
1990-19991040.125.663.90
2000-20091037.123.365.30
2010-2019102422.429.60
2020-2025622.816.742.90

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Singapore's mapped-score peak is 79.4 in 1958; the minimum is 16.7 in 2023-2025.

Singapore is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 40 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1974, 1977-1981, 1985-1987, 1996-1998, 2001. The remaining 40 are below 55.

Singapore is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 21 of 80 readings: 1946, 1950-1962, 1964-1966, 1969-1970, 1985, 2001. The remaining 59 are below 65.

Singapore never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Singapore is 2001 to 2002: Strain (65.3) to Calm (54.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Singapore records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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