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Oman

Oman has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

32.5 / 100

#131 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Oman in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Oman in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Oman, or with Oman as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population5.5M
CapitalMuscat
Area309.5k km²
GDP~$109.6B (2025)
CurrencyOMR
LanguagesArabic
Armed forces47k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
33.5
L3 Politics
66.5
L4 Events
41.5
L5 Information
63.44
L6 Society
52.17

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 78.1 (1960s); lowest 35.6 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 1 · Country record

  • 1 Jan 1996capital controls

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Oman · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194672.5Strainarchive reading
194772.5Strainarchive reading
194872.5Strainarchive reading
194957.5Watcharchive reading
195072.2Strainarchive reading
195171.9Strainarchive reading
195271.5Strainarchive reading
195375.5Strainarchive reading
195471.1Strainarchive reading
195570.9Strainarchive reading
195670.5Strainarchive reading
195778.3Strainarchive reading
195893.9Crisisarchive reading
195992.4Crisisarchive reading
196090.6Crisisarchive reading
196189.7Crisisarchive reading
196287.8Crisisarchive reading
196387.2Crisisarchive reading
196476.3Strainarchive reading
196575.9Strainarchive reading
196675.4Strainarchive reading
196769.4Strainarchive reading
196860.1Watcharchive reading
196968.6Strainarchive reading
197067.2Strainarchive reading
197164.5Watcharchive reading
197264.5Watcharchive reading
197374.2Strainarchive reading
197464.4Watcharchive reading
197559.1Watcharchive reading
197641.0Calmarchive reading
197740.5Calmarchive reading
197840.2Calmarchive reading
197939.9Calmarchive reading
198039.6Calmarchive reading
198139.2Calmarchive reading
198237.6Calmarchive reading
198337.2Calmarchive reading
198436.9Calmarchive reading
198536.7Calmarchive reading
198636.5Calmarchive reading
198760.3Watcharchive reading
198836.1Calmarchive reading
198934.9Calmarchive reading
199034.9Calmarchive reading
199134.7Calmarchive reading
199234.4Calmarchive reading
199334.1Calmarchive reading
199433.9Calmarchive reading
199533.8Calmarchive reading
199646.5Calmarchive reading
199746.3Calmarchive reading
199846.2Calmarchive reading
199946.1Calmarchive reading
200045.9Calmarchive reading
200159.6Watcharchive reading
200270.0Strainarchive reading
200370.0Strainarchive reading
200459.5Watcharchive reading
200559.5Watcharchive reading
200659.5Watcharchive reading
200759.5Watcharchive reading
200859.4Watcharchive reading
200959.4Watcharchive reading
201059.4Watcharchive reading
201163.8Watcharchive reading
201259.5Watcharchive reading
201359.4Watcharchive reading
201459.4Watcharchive reading
201544.7Calmarchive reading
201631.8Calmarchive reading
201730.4Calmarchive reading
201830.4Calmarchive reading
201958.5Watcharchive reading
202048.9Calmarchive reading
202133.1Calmarchive reading
202233.7Calmarchive reading
202333.1Calmarchive reading
202432.5Calmarchive reading
202532.5Calmarchive reading
Oman · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202632.5Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Ireland, 1977

Details
Ireland, 1977Iceland, 1974Malta, 1990

IRL, 1977

Published archive distance 0.1442. This similarity is not a forecast.

ISL, 1974

Published archive distance 0.2352. This similarity is not a forecast.

MLT, 1990

Published archive distance 0.2824. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Oman
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-170Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-061Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-272Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-142Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z2Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy63%
L3 Politics73%
L4 Events62%
L5 Information100%
L6 Society93%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 72.6

Oman in this snapshot

Oman (OMN) records Calm pressure at 32.5 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 72.6.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Oman has pressure score 32.5/100 in Calm. 130 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 131. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Sweden (SWE), 34/100, higher by 1.5; Costa Rica (CRI), 32.3/100, lower by 0.2.

Oman's highest decade mean is recorded in 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 78.1). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 35.6). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Oman: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949468.857.572.50
1950-19591076.870.593.92
1960-19691078.160.190.64
1970-19791055.539.974.20
1980-19891039.534.960.30
1990-19991039.133.846.50
2000-20091060.245.9700
2010-20191049.730.463.80
2020-2025635.632.548.90

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Oman's mapped-score peak is 93.9 in 1958; the minimum is 30.4 in 2017-2018.

Oman is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 46 of 80 readings: 1946-1975, 1987, 2001-2014, 2019. The remaining 34 are below 55.

Oman is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 26 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1967, 1969-1970, 1973, 2002-2003. The remaining 54 are below 65.

Oman is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 6 of 80 readings: 1958-1963. The remaining 74 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Oman is 2019 to 2020: Watch (58.5) to Calm (48.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Oman records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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