equity
Israel: local market stress
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to a local market.
Point score: 20.6 elevated · pressure on local assets
Israel
armed conflict activity · protest activity
ISR
Israel
Israel has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
78 / 100
#14 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Israel in November or December 2026: 19% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Israel in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Israel, or with Israel as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 19% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population10.1M10,122,800 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalJerusalemJerusalem · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area20.8k km²20770 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$610.8B (2025)6.10778e+11 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyILSILS · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesArabic, HebrewArabic, Hebrew · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces178k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyFewer than two documented fields can support a pressure reading in this snapshot.
No reading in this snapshotLayer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 86 (1946-1949); lowest 48 (2010s).
Details
Recorded events 95 · Country record
- May 2025conflict escalation
- Oct 2023conflict escalation
- May 2023conflict escalation
- 7 Jan 2023street pressure
- Aug 2022conflict escalation
- May 2021conflict escalation
- Nov 2019conflict escalation
- May 2019conflict escalation
- Jul 2014conflict escalation
- Nov 2012conflict escalation
- Aug 2011conflict escalation
- Apr 2011conflict escalation
Show all 95
- Aug 2009conflict escalation
- Jan 2009conflict escalation
- Dec 2008conflict escalation
- Jun 2007conflict escalation
- May 2007conflict escalation
- Jul 2006conflict escalation
- Apr 2006conflict escalation
- Jul 2005conflict escalation
- Sep 2004conflict escalation
- May 2004conflict escalation
- Oct 2003conflict escalation
- Mar 2002conflict escalation
- Oct 2001conflict escalation
- May 2001conflict escalation
- 2001election
- Nov 2000conflict escalation
- 1999election
- Mar 1996conflict escalation
- Feb 1996conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 1996election
- 4 Nov 1995leadership break
- Jan 1995conflict escalation
- Oct 1994conflict escalation
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986currency stress
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985currency stress
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1984capital controls
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983currency stress
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982currency stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981currency stress
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980currency stress
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979currency stress
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978currency stress
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977currency stress
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1976capital controls
- 1976currency stress
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975currency stress
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971currency stress
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964conflict escalation
- 1963conflict escalation
- 1962currency stress
- 1962conflict escalation
- 1961conflict escalation
- 1960conflict escalation
- 1959conflict escalation
- 1958conflict escalation
- 1957conflict escalation
- 1956conflict escalation
- 1955conflict escalation
- 1954conflict escalation
- 1953currency stress
- 1953conflict escalation
- 1952currency stress
- 1952conflict escalation
- 1951conflict escalation
- 1950conflict escalation
- 1949conflict escalation
- 1946conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 86.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 78.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 64.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 63.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1962 | 63.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 62.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 75.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1970 | 60.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1971 | 60.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1972 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1973 | 72.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1975 | 59.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1976 | 59.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1977 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 70.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 68.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 67.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 69.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 69.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 67.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 67.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 61.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2000 | 59.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2001 | 59.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2002 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 59.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 59.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2005 | 59.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 71.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 59.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2008 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2009 | 64.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 59.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 59.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 58.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 27.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2014 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 27.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2016 | 26.2 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2017 | 29.5 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2018 | 60.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 60.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 60.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 58.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 58.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78 | Strain | estimated |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
2 points
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Potash: production capacity
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 1.0 low · upward pressure
Israel
armed conflict activity · protest activity
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Gabon, 1988
Details
GAB, 1988
Published archive distance 0.318. This similarity is not a forecast.
TTO, 1991
Published archive distance 0.3875. This similarity is not a forecast.
GBR, 1976
Published archive distance 0.3888. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events30%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 59.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Israel in this snapshot
Israel (ISR) records Strain pressure at 78.0 of 100 and touches 2 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 59.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
4 public layer readings; 2 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Israel has pressure score 78/100 in Strain. 13 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 5 share this score. Its competition rank is 14. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): China (CHN), 78/100, tied; Libya (LBY), 78/100, tied.
Israel's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 86). The lowest is 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 48). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 86 | 67.3 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 70.3 | 63.9 | 89.4 | 1 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 64.7 | 61.1 | 75.1 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 62.5 | 59.4 | 72.2 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 70.8 | 66.3 | 85.6 | 1 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 67.5 | 61.8 | 69.3 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 63.6 | 59.2 | 78.3 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 48 | 26.2 | 72 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 67.3 | 58.6 | 75.5 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Israel's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1947-1948; the minimum is 26.2 in 2016.
Israel is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 76 of 80 readings: 1946-2012, 2014, 2018-2025. The remaining 4 are below 55.
Israel is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 41 of 80 readings: 1946-1956, 1965, 1967, 1973, 1978-1998, 2002, 2006, 2014, 2023-2025. The remaining 39 are below 65.
Israel is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 5 of 80 readings: 1947-1950, 1982. The remaining 75 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Israel is 2022 to 2023: Watch (58.6) to Strain (75.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Israel records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.