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Luxembourg

Luxembourg has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

18.3 / 100

#177 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Luxembourg in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Luxembourg in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Luxembourg, or with Luxembourg as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population687k
CapitalLuxembourg
Area2.6k km²
GDP$101.2B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesGerman + more
Armed forces1k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
27.25
L3 Politics
8
L4 Events
5.5
L5 Information
7.7
L6 Society
54

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 61.2 (1946-1949); lowest 19.2 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 2 · Country record

  • 1982currency stress
  • 1981currency stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Luxembourg · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194664.6Watcharchive reading
194762.9Watcharchive reading
194861.8Watcharchive reading
194955.5Watcharchive reading
195059.0Watcharchive reading
195166.3Strainarchive reading
195254.8Calmarchive reading
195353.5Calmarchive reading
195464.6Watcharchive reading
195550.3Calmarchive reading
195648.6Calmarchive reading
195747.2Calmarchive reading
195845.1Calmarchive reading
195944.2Calmarchive reading
196042.6Calmarchive reading
196141.4Calmarchive reading
196241.0Calmarchive reading
196339.8Calmarchive reading
196437.1Calmarchive reading
196536.5Calmarchive reading
196636.1Calmarchive reading
196736.0Calmarchive reading
196834.0Calmarchive reading
196930.7Calmarchive reading
197030.1Calmarchive reading
197128.6Calmarchive reading
197227.5Calmarchive reading
197327.5Calmarchive reading
197427.4Calmarchive reading
197557.8Watcharchive reading
197626.9Calmarchive reading
197726.8Calmarchive reading
197826.7Calmarchive reading
197926.5Calmarchive reading
198026.4Calmarchive reading
198157.3Watcharchive reading
198225.8Calmarchive reading
198325.7Calmarchive reading
198425.6Calmarchive reading
198525.5Calmarchive reading
198625.4Calmarchive reading
198725.2Calmarchive reading
198824.8Calmarchive reading
198923.2Calmarchive reading
199023.2Calmarchive reading
199123.1Calmarchive reading
199222.8Calmarchive reading
199322.6Calmarchive reading
199422.4Calmarchive reading
199522.5Calmarchive reading
199622.4Calmarchive reading
199722.3Calmarchive reading
199822.1Calmarchive reading
199922.0Calmarchive reading
200021.9Calmarchive reading
200121.8Calmarchive reading
200221.7Calmarchive reading
200321.6Calmarchive reading
200421.6Calmarchive reading
200521.5Calmarchive reading
200621.4Calmarchive reading
200721.4Calmarchive reading
200856.4Watcharchive reading
200956.4Watcharchive reading
201021.2Calmarchive reading
201121.1Calmarchive reading
201256.4Watcharchive reading
201321.0Calmarchive reading
201420.9Calmarchive reading
201520.9Calmarchive reading
201620.8Calmarchive reading
201720.7Calmarchive reading
201821.5Calmarchive reading
201918.0Calmarchive reading
202020.4Calmarchive reading
202118.0Calmarchive reading
202222.4Calmarchive reading
202317.7Calmarchive reading
202418.3Calmarchive reading
202518.3Calmarchive reading
Luxembourg · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202618.3Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Norway, 2005

Details
Norway, 2005Canada, 1980Australia, 1980

NOR, 2005

Published archive distance 0.0744. This similarity is not a forecast.

CAN, 1980

Published archive distance 0.083. This similarity is not a forecast.

AUS, 1980

Published archive distance 0.0864. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Luxembourg
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-281Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-270Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-144Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z3Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics100%
L4 Events48%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society63%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 65.4

Luxembourg in this snapshot

Luxembourg (LUX) records Calm pressure at 18.3 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 65.4.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Luxembourg has pressure score 18.3/100 in Calm. 176 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 177. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Panama (PAN), 18.9/100, higher by 0.6; Seychelles (SYC), 18.3/100, tied.

Luxembourg's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 61.2). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 19.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Luxembourg: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949461.255.564.60
1950-19591053.444.266.30
1960-19691037.530.742.60
1970-19791030.626.557.80
1980-19891028.523.257.30
1990-19991022.52223.20
2000-20091028.621.456.40
2010-20191024.21856.40
2020-2025619.217.722.40

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Luxembourg's mapped-score peak is 66.3 in 1951; the minimum is 17.7 in 2023.

Luxembourg is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 12 of 80 readings: 1946-1951, 1954, 1975, 1981, 2008-2009, 2012. The remaining 68 are below 55.

Luxembourg is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 1 of 80 readings: 1951. The remaining 79 are below 65.

Luxembourg never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Luxembourg is 2012 to 2013: Watch (56.4) to Calm (21). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Luxembourg records 1 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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