Saint Lucia
Saint Lucia has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.
23.3 / 100
#160 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in St Lucia in November or December 2026: 0.5% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in St Lucia in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of St Lucia, or with St Lucia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 0.5% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 95 (1950s; 1960s); lowest 33.1 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 1 · Country record
- 1976currency stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 69.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 67.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 88.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 87.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 75.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 75.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1997 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 54.9 | Calm | archive reading |
| 1999 | 54.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2000 | 73.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 57.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2003 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 73.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 50.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2007 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 73.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 91.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 73.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 92.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 51.0 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2015 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 42.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2020 | 64.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2023 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2024 | 15 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 23.3 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.3 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Saint Lucia in this snapshot
Saint Lucia (LCA) records Calm pressure at 23.3 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 67.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 77 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Saint Lucia has pressure score 23.3/100 in Calm. 159 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 160. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Iceland (ISL), 23.3/100, tied; Mauritius (MUS), 23/100, lower by 0.3.
Saint Lucia's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 95); 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 33.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 10 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 71.5 | 67.2 | 95 | 1 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 81.3 | 67.3 | 95 | 6 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 69.1 | 54.3 | 75.7 | 0 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 71.7 | 50.7 | 91.6 | 1 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 69.8 | 42.7 | 92 | 1 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 33.1 | 15 | 66.1 | 0 |
Across 76 annual readings (1950-2025), Saint Lucia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1950-1970, 1980; the minimum is 15 in 2022-2024.
Saint Lucia is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 67 of 76 readings: 1950-1997, 2000-2005, 2007-2013, 2015-2018, 2020-2021. The remaining 9 are below 55.
Saint Lucia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 64 of 76 readings: 1950-1995, 1997, 2000-2001, 2003-2005, 2007-2013, 2015-2018, 2021. The remaining 12 are below 65.
Saint Lucia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 29 of 76 readings: 1950-1970, 1980, 1984-1988, 2009, 2012. The remaining 47 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Saint Lucia is 2021 to 2022: Strain (66.1) to Calm (15). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Saint Lucia records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.