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Sweden

Sweden has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

34 / 100

#130 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Sweden in November or December 2026: 4.1% · unlikely

Chance of a conflict escalation in Sweden in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Sweden, or with Sweden as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
4.1% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population10.6M
CapitalStockholm
Area450.3k km²
GDP$669B (2025)
CurrencySEK
LanguagesSwedish
Armed forces15k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
17.86
L3 Politics
16.32
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
9.26
L6 Society
No reading in this snapshot

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 57 (1946-1949); lowest 20 (1980s).

Details

Recorded events 5 · Country record

  • 2015currency stress
  • 1993currency stress
  • 7 Oct 1992street pressure
  • 1983currency stress
  • 1982currency stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Sweden · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194658.0Watcharchive reading
194757.1Watcharchive reading
194856.9Watcharchive reading
194955.9Watcharchive reading
195055.5Watcharchive reading
195139.9Calmarchive reading
195239.7Calmarchive reading
195339.1Calmarchive reading
195438.1Calmarchive reading
195537.3Calmarchive reading
195636.3Calmarchive reading
195735.7Calmarchive reading
195835.7Calmarchive reading
195934.7Calmarchive reading
196033.1Calmarchive reading
196131.9Calmarchive reading
196230.7Calmarchive reading
196328.9Calmarchive reading
196427.3Calmarchive reading
196526.4Calmarchive reading
196625.9Calmarchive reading
196724.6Calmarchive reading
196822.5Calmarchive reading
196921.0Calmarchive reading
197020.9Calmarchive reading
197120.8Calmarchive reading
197220.8Calmarchive reading
197320.7Calmarchive reading
197420.6Calmarchive reading
197520.6Calmarchive reading
197620.5Calmarchive reading
197755.9Watcharchive reading
197820.4Calmarchive reading
197920.3Calmarchive reading
198020.2Calmarchive reading
198120.2Calmarchive reading
198220.2Calmarchive reading
198320.2Calmarchive reading
198420.0Calmarchive reading
198520.0Calmarchive reading
198619.9Calmarchive reading
198719.8Calmarchive reading
198819.8Calmarchive reading
198919.5Calmarchive reading
199019.4Calmarchive reading
199159.5Watcharchive reading
199255.5Watcharchive reading
199355.5Watcharchive reading
199419.4Calmarchive reading
199519.2Calmarchive reading
199619.1Calmarchive reading
199719.1Calmarchive reading
199819.1Calmarchive reading
199919.5Calmarchive reading
200019.5Calmarchive reading
200119.4Calmarchive reading
200218.9Calmarchive reading
200318.9Calmarchive reading
200418.8Calmarchive reading
200518.8Calmarchive reading
200618.8Calmarchive reading
200718.7Calmarchive reading
200860.7Watcharchive reading
200955.3Watcharchive reading
201018.6Calmarchive reading
201118.6Calmarchive reading
201255.3Watcharchive reading
201324.6Calmarchive reading
201418.5Calmarchive reading
201518.8Calmarchive reading
201618.8Calmarchive reading
201718.1Calmarchive reading
201819.6Calmarchive reading
201919.3Calmarchive reading
202026.1Calmarchive reading
202118.1Calmarchive reading
202217.8Calmarchive reading
202322.1Calmarchive reading
202421.5Calmarchive reading
202516.6Calmarchive reading
Sweden · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202634Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Norway, 2007

Details
Norway, 2007Denmark, 1999Netherlands, 2007

NOR, 2007

Published archive distance 0.0969. This similarity is not a forecast.

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.1238. This similarity is not a forecast.

NLD, 2007

Published archive distance 0.1265. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Sweden
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events30%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 60.3

Sweden in this snapshot

Sweden (SWE) records Calm pressure at 34.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 60.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

3 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Sweden has pressure score 34/100 in Calm. 129 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 130. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Mongolia (MNG), 35.7/100, higher by 1.7; Oman (OMN), 32.5/100, lower by 1.5.

Sweden's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 57). The lowest is 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 20). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Sweden: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-194945755.9580
1950-19591039.234.755.50
1960-19691027.22133.10
1970-19791024.120.355.90
1980-1989102019.520.20
1990-19991030.519.159.50
2000-20091026.818.760.70
2010-2019102318.155.30
2020-2025620.416.626.10

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Sweden's mapped-score peak is 60.7 in 2008; the minimum is 16.6 in 2025.

Sweden is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 12 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1977, 1991-1993, 2008-2009, 2012. The remaining 68 are below 55.

Sweden never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Sweden never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Sweden is 2012 to 2013: Watch (55.3) to Calm (24.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Sweden records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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