GAB, 2012
Published archive distance 0.2451. This similarity is not a forecast.
RWA
Rwanda
Rwanda has a Watch pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
62 / 100
#47 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Rwanda in November or December 2026: 11% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Rwanda in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Rwanda, or with Rwanda as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 11% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population14.6M14,569,341 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalKigaliKigali
Area26.3k km²26338
GDP$16.4B (2025)16.37 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyRWFRWF , Rwandan franc
LanguagesEnglish + moreEnglish, French, Kinyarwanda
Armed forces35k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 93.9 (1950s); lowest 75.1 (1980s).
Details
Recorded events 50 · Country record
- 2024election
- 1 Dec 2023external support
- 1 Dec 2022external support
- 1 Jun 2019external support
- 2017election
- 1 Jun 2016external support
- 1 Dec 2013external support
- 1 Jun 2010external support
- 2010election
- 1 Jun 2006external support
- 2003election
- 1 Aug 2002external support
Show all 50
- Nov 1998conflict escalation
- Jul 1998conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 1998external support
- Nov 1997conflict escalation
- May 1997conflict escalation
- Jan 1997conflict escalation
- Dec 1996conflict escalation
- Jul 1996conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- Sep 1995conflict escalation
- Apr 1995conflict escalation
- 1995currency stress
- 17 May 1994new sanctions
- 6 Apr 1994leadership break
- Apr 1994conflict escalation
- Mar 1994conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1994displacement surge
- Feb 1993conflict escalation
- 31 Jan 1993street pressure
- Jan 1993conflict escalation
- 19 Nov 1992street pressure
- Jul 1992conflict escalation
- Mar 1992conflict escalation
- 17 Nov 1991street pressure
- Nov 1991conflict escalation
- Jul 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- 1988election
- 1986sovereign stress
- 1984sovereign stress
- 1983election
- 1979sovereign stress
- 1978election
- 1976sovereign stress
- 5 Jul 1973leadership break
- 1969election
- 1966currency stress
- 1965election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 73.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 93.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 93.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 93.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 93.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 93.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 84.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 77.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 66.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 83.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 64.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1982 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1983 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1984 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1986 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 86.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 88.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 88.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 81.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 67.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 76.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 76.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 76.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 94.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 79.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 79.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 65.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 84.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 69.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 75.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Gabon, 2012
Details
GUY, 2004
Published archive distance 0.2698. This similarity is not a forecast.
KHM, 2008
Published archive distance 0.289. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 27 Aug 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy75%Confirmed: 3 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics80%Confirmed: 5 of 7; Sourced: 0 of 7; Inferred: 2 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events56%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 2 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society80%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 3 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 71.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Rwanda in this snapshot
Rwanda (RWA) records Watch pressure at 62.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 71.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Rwanda has pressure score 62/100 in Watch. 46 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 10 share this score. Its competition rank is 47. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): New Caledonia (NCL), 62/100, tied; South Africa (ZAF), 62/100, tied.
Rwanda's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 93.9). The lowest is 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 75.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 89.7 | 73.7 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 93.9 | 93.6 | 94.9 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 80.8 | 70.2 | 94.9 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 80.2 | 66.2 | 95 | 5 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 75.1 | 64 | 87.1 | 5 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 93.5 | 86.1 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 80.9 | 67.6 | 95 | 4 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 76.1 | 65.9 | 84.2 | 2 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 78.3 | 67.3 | 87.7 | 3 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Rwanda's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1975, 1990-1991, 1993-1998, 2001; the minimum is 64 in 1982-1983, 1985.
Every published year for Rwanda, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Rwanda is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 76 of 80 readings: 1946-1980, 1984, 1986-2025. The remaining 4 are below 65.
Rwanda is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 46 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1961, 1963-1964, 1974-1977, 1979-1980, 1984, 1987-2002, 2009, 2016, 2019-2020, 2022-2023. The remaining 34 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Rwanda is 2023 to 2024: Crisis (84.7) to Strain (75.8). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Rwanda records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.