TKM, 2011
Published archive distance 0.1675. This similarity is not a forecast.
PHL
Philippines
Philippines has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟢 CalmThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
54 / 100
#91 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in the Philippines in November or December 2026: 29% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in the Philippines in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Philippines, or with the Philippines as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 29% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population116.8M116,786,962 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalManilaManila
Area342.4k km²342353
GDP$487.1B (2025)487.1 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyPHPPHP , Philippine peso
LanguagesFilipino, EnglishFilipino, English
Armed forces157k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 95 (1946-1949); lowest 64.2 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 150 · Country record
- Jan 2025conflict escalation
- Dec 2023conflict escalation
- Nov 2022conflict escalation
- 2022election
- Mar 2019conflict escalation
- May 2017conflict escalation
- Mar 2017conflict escalation
- Nov 2016conflict escalation
- Feb 2016conflict escalation
- 2016election
- Dec 2015conflict escalation
- Jan 2015conflict escalation
Show all 150
- Nov 2014conflict escalation
- 28 Jul 2014street pressure
- 1 May 2014street pressure
- Jan 2014conflict escalation
- Sep 2013conflict escalation
- 26 Aug 2013street pressure
- Jul 2013conflict escalation
- May 2013conflict escalation
- Apr 2013conflict escalation
- Aug 2012conflict escalation
- Apr 2012conflict escalation
- Oct 2011conflict escalation
- Jul 2011conflict escalation
- Jan 2011conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2010capital controls
- Jan 2010conflict escalation
- 2010election
- Nov 2009conflict escalation
- 27 Jul 2009street pressure
- May 2009conflict escalation
- Jan 2009conflict escalation
- Aug 2008conflict escalation
- Jun 2008conflict escalation
- 28 Feb 2008street pressure
- 2008sovereign stress
- Aug 2007conflict escalation
- Jan 2007conflict escalation
- 18 Dec 2006street pressure
- Jan 2006conflict escalation
- 2006sovereign stress
- Nov 2005conflict escalation
- 7 Sep 2005street pressure
- 13 Jul 2005street pressure
- Feb 2005conflict escalation
- Feb 2004conflict escalation
- 2004election
- Feb 2003conflict escalation
- Oct 2002conflict escalation
- Apr 2002conflict escalation
- Nov 2001conflict escalation
- Oct 2001conflict escalation
- 26 Apr 2001street pressure
- 16 Jan 2001street pressure
- Jan 2001conflict escalation
- 5 Nov 2000street pressure
- Sep 2000conflict escalation
- Mar 2000conflict escalation
- Feb 2000conflict escalation
- 20 Aug 1999street pressure
- Aug 1999conflict escalation
- Jun 1999conflict escalation
- Jul 1998conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 1998external support
- Mar 1998conflict escalation
- 1998currency stress
- 1998election
- 21 Sep 1997street pressure
- Jun 1997conflict escalation
- Apr 1997conflict escalation
- 5 Dec 1996street pressure
- Oct 1996conflict escalation
- 2 Jul 1996street pressure
- Apr 1996conflict escalation
- Mar 1996conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 1996sovereign stress
- Apr 1995conflict escalation
- 26 Mar 1995street pressure
- Oct 1994conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 1994external support
- Jun 1994conflict escalation
- Feb 1993conflict escalation
- Aug 1992conflict escalation
- 17 May 1992street pressure
- Feb 1992conflict escalation
- 1992election
- 10 Sep 1991street pressure
- 23 Jul 1991street pressure
- Jan 1991conflict escalation
- Aug 1990conflict escalation
- 1 May 1990street pressure
- Apr 1990conflict escalation
- Feb 1990conflict escalation
- Dec 1989conflict escalation
- 1 May 1989external support
- 1 May 1988external support
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 1986external support
- 1 Jan 1986capital controls
- 1986election
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1 Oct 1984external support
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983currency stress
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 1982external support
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981election
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1 May 1980external support
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978election
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977election
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976sovereign stress
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970currency stress
- 1970sovereign stress
- 1970election
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969election
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1965election
- 1962currency stress
- 1961election
- 1957election
- 1954conflict escalation
- 1953election
- 1953conflict escalation
- 1952conflict escalation
- 1951conflict escalation
- 1950conflict escalation
- 1949election
- 1949conflict escalation
- 1948conflict escalation
- 1947conflict escalation
- 1946election
- 1946conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 85.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 65.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 64.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1958 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1959 | 64.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1960 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1962 | 63.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 63.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1965 | 63.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1966 | 63.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1968 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1969 | 73.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 81.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 75.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 78.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 78.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 94.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 94.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 94.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 78.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1993 | 79.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 68.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 78.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 67.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 86.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 77.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 69.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 78.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 65.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2016 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2017 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 73.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 73.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 71.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.0 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Turkmenistan, 2011
Details
CHN, 1988
Published archive distance 0.1777. This similarity is not a forecast.
TZA, 1992
Published archive distance 0.1924. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events62%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 1The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 67.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Philippines in this snapshot
Philippines (PHL) records Calm pressure at 54.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 67.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Philippines has pressure score 54/100 in Calm. 90 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 14 share this score. Its competition rank is 91. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Mauritania (MRT), 54/100, tied; Slovakia (SVK), 54/100, tied.
Philippines's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 95). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 64.2). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 95 | 94.9 | 95 | 4 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 76.1 | 64 | 95 | 5 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 64.2 | 62.7 | 73.1 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 80.5 | 75 | 90.8 | 5 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 92 | 77.9 | 95 | 9 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 80.5 | 67.9 | 95 | 3 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 77.9 | 67.8 | 86.2 | 4 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 70.9 | 65 | 88.4 | 1 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 72.2 | 70 | 75.4 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Philippines's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1950, 1984-1987, 1989-1991; the minimum is 62.7 in 1964.
Every published year for Philippines, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Philippines is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 68 of 80 readings: 1946-1956, 1969-2025. The remaining 12 are below 65.
Philippines is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 31 of 80 readings: 1946-1954, 1970, 1972-1974, 1978, 1981-1991, 1998, 2000-2001, 2003, 2009, 2017. The remaining 49 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Philippines is 2017 to 2018: Crisis (88.4) to Strain (73.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Philippines records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.