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Denmark

Denmark has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

28 / 100

#143 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Denmark in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Denmark in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Denmark, or with Denmark as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population6M
CapitalCopenhagen
Area43.1k km²
GDP$462.5B (2025)
CurrencyDKK
LanguagesDanish
Armed forces15k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
11.52
L3 Politics
10.32
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
36.97
L6 Society
No reading in this snapshot

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 60.2 (1946-1949); lowest 18.3 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 2 · Country record

  • 13 Aug 2009street pressure
  • 1981currency stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Denmark · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194662.5Watcharchive reading
194761.2Watcharchive reading
194860.2Watcharchive reading
194956.7Watcharchive reading
195055.9Watcharchive reading
195160.7Watcharchive reading
195245.0Calmarchive reading
195342.9Calmarchive reading
195442.1Calmarchive reading
195559.3Watcharchive reading
195640.7Calmarchive reading
195738.8Calmarchive reading
195837.7Calmarchive reading
195935.8Calmarchive reading
196034.5Calmarchive reading
196132.9Calmarchive reading
196231.3Calmarchive reading
196331.0Calmarchive reading
196428.2Calmarchive reading
196527.5Calmarchive reading
196626.9Calmarchive reading
196726.4Calmarchive reading
196825.7Calmarchive reading
196925.5Calmarchive reading
197025.3Calmarchive reading
197124.8Calmarchive reading
197224.5Calmarchive reading
197324.2Calmarchive reading
197455.4Watcharchive reading
197555.4Watcharchive reading
197623.3Calmarchive reading
197722.9Calmarchive reading
197822.5Calmarchive reading
197922.4Calmarchive reading
198055.2Watcharchive reading
198155.2Watcharchive reading
198221.9Calmarchive reading
198321.7Calmarchive reading
198421.7Calmarchive reading
198521.9Calmarchive reading
198621.8Calmarchive reading
198736.7Calmarchive reading
198827.1Calmarchive reading
198920.9Calmarchive reading
199020.8Calmarchive reading
199120.7Calmarchive reading
199220.6Calmarchive reading
199331.3Calmarchive reading
199420.4Calmarchive reading
199520.5Calmarchive reading
199620.4Calmarchive reading
199720.3Calmarchive reading
199820.4Calmarchive reading
199920.3Calmarchive reading
200020.3Calmarchive reading
200119.9Calmarchive reading
200219.8Calmarchive reading
200319.8Calmarchive reading
200419.7Calmarchive reading
200519.6Calmarchive reading
200619.6Calmarchive reading
200730.3Calmarchive reading
200860.6Watcharchive reading
200953.3Calmarchive reading
201019.5Calmarchive reading
201119.3Calmarchive reading
201219.3Calmarchive reading
201319.7Calmarchive reading
201419.7Calmarchive reading
201519.7Calmarchive reading
201620.1Calmarchive reading
201720.0Calmarchive reading
201820.0Calmarchive reading
201916.8Calmarchive reading
202024.0Calmarchive reading
202117.8Calmarchive reading
202217.1Calmarchive reading
202316.8Calmarchive reading
202416.8Calmarchive reading
202517.5Calmarchive reading
Denmark · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202628Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Norway, 2007

Details
Norway, 2007Netherlands, 2007Austria, 2006

NOR, 2007

Published archive distance 0.0795. This similarity is not a forecast.

NLD, 2007

Published archive distance 0.1069. This similarity is not a forecast.

AUT, 2006

Published archive distance 0.1173. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Denmark
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics57%
L4 Events18%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society57%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 55.1

Denmark in this snapshot

Denmark (DNK) records Calm pressure at 28.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 55.1.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

3 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Denmark has pressure score 28/100 in Calm. 142 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 143. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Paraguay (PRY), 28.3/100, higher by 0.3; Ghana (GHA), 28/100, tied.

Denmark's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 60.2). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 18.3). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Denmark: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949460.256.762.50
1950-19591045.935.860.70
1960-1969102925.534.50
1970-19791030.122.455.40
1980-19891030.420.955.20
1990-19991021.620.331.30
2000-20091028.319.660.60
2010-20191019.416.820.10
2020-2025618.316.8240

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Denmark's mapped-score peak is 62.5 in 1946; the minimum is 16.8 in 2019, 2023-2024.

Denmark is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 12 of 80 readings: 1946-1951, 1955, 1974-1975, 1980-1981, 2008. The remaining 68 are below 55.

Denmark never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Denmark never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Denmark is 2008 to 2009: Watch (60.6) to Calm (53.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Denmark records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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