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Spain

Spain has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

50 / 100

#109 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Spain in November or December 2026: 3.0% · unlikely

Chance of a conflict escalation in Spain in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Spain, or with Spain as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
3.0% · unlikely
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population49.4M
CapitalMadrid
Area506k km²
GDP$1.9T (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesSpanish
Armed forces199k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
31.9
L3 Politics
37.61
L4 Events
No reading in this snapshot
L5 Information
9.62
L6 Society
44

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 74.4 (1946-1949); lowest 27.4 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 59 · Country record

  • 14 Mar 2020state of emergency
  • 18 Oct 2019street pressure
  • 11 Sep 2019street pressure
  • 15 Apr 2018street pressure
  • 4 Mar 2018street pressure
  • 11 Nov 2017street pressure
  • 7 Oct 2017street pressure
  • 20 Sep 2017street pressure
  • 26 Aug 2017street pressure
  • 6 Feb 2017street pressure
  • 11 Sep 2015street pressure
  • 11 Sep 2014street pressure
Show all 59
  • 12 Sep 2013street pressure
  • 14 Nov 2012street pressure
  • 11 Sep 2012street pressure
  • 10 Jul 2012street pressure
  • 1 May 2012street pressure
  • 29 Apr 2012street pressure
  • 11 Mar 2012street pressure
  • 19 Feb 2012street pressure
  • 15 May 2011street pressure
  • 1 May 2009street pressure
  • 29 Mar 2009street pressure
  • 9 Jun 2008street pressure
  • 10 Mar 2007street pressure
  • 1 Feb 2007street pressure
  • 12 Nov 2005street pressure
  • 4 Jun 2005street pressure
  • 15 Mar 2003street pressure
  • 1 Dec 2002street pressure
  • 20 Jun 2002street pressure
  • 14 Mar 2002street pressure
  • 1 Dec 2001street pressure
  • 14 Dec 2000street pressure
  • 20 Sep 2000street pressure
  • 28 Dec 1997street pressure
  • 1 Jul 1997street pressure
  • 23 Nov 1996street pressure
  • 15 Oct 1996street pressure
  • 1 Dec 1995street pressure
  • 26 Nov 1993street pressure
  • 1993currency stress
  • 29 May 1992street pressure
  • 8 Oct 1991street pressure
  • 3 Feb 1991street pressure
  • 1987conflict escalation
  • 1986conflict escalation
  • 1985conflict escalation
  • 1983currency stress
  • 1982conflict escalation
  • 1981currency stress
  • 1981conflict escalation
  • 1980conflict escalation
  • 1979conflict escalation
  • 1978conflict escalation
  • 1 May 1977external support
  • 1 Jan 1974capital controls
  • 1 Jun 1972external support
  • 1959currency stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Spain · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194676.9Strainarchive reading
194776.3Strainarchive reading
194875.9Strainarchive reading
194968.6Strainarchive reading
195068.3Strainarchive reading
195160.6Watcharchive reading
195260.2Watcharchive reading
195369.8Strainarchive reading
195460.0Watcharchive reading
195559.8Watcharchive reading
195659.4Watcharchive reading
195759.3Watcharchive reading
195858.8Watcharchive reading
195967.9Strainarchive reading
196058.2Watcharchive reading
196157.8Watcharchive reading
196257.4Watcharchive reading
196357.0Watcharchive reading
196456.9Watcharchive reading
196565.4Strainarchive reading
196665.1Strainarchive reading
196764.8Watcharchive reading
196864.5Watcharchive reading
196964.0Watcharchive reading
197063.9Watcharchive reading
197163.7Watcharchive reading
197263.2Watcharchive reading
197362.5Watcharchive reading
197462.1Watcharchive reading
197561.7Watcharchive reading
197657.9Watcharchive reading
197759.4Watcharchive reading
197860.9Watcharchive reading
197960.3Watcharchive reading
198059.9Watcharchive reading
198165.9Strainarchive reading
198259.2Watcharchive reading
198346.2Calmarchive reading
198444.6Calmarchive reading
198558.2Watcharchive reading
198657.7Watcharchive reading
198756.6Watcharchive reading
198832.1Calmarchive reading
198928.4Calmarchive reading
199036.2Calmarchive reading
199158.8Watcharchive reading
199235.7Calmarchive reading
199351.6Calmarchive reading
199429.9Calmarchive reading
199533.8Calmarchive reading
199628.1Calmarchive reading
199728.5Calmarchive reading
199823.8Calmarchive reading
199925.6Calmarchive reading
200024.5Calmarchive reading
200123.7Calmarchive reading
200226.9Calmarchive reading
200328.5Calmarchive reading
200440.1Calmarchive reading
200526.1Calmarchive reading
200623.8Calmarchive reading
200723.6Calmarchive reading
200833.6Calmarchive reading
200946.8Calmarchive reading
201023.1Calmarchive reading
201156.6Watcharchive reading
201260.1Watcharchive reading
201357.1Watcharchive reading
201431.2Calmarchive reading
201527.3Calmarchive reading
201627.7Calmarchive reading
201735.4Calmarchive reading
201853.8Calmarchive reading
201959.8Watcharchive reading
202054.0Calmarchive reading
202116.8Calmarchive reading
202217.7Calmarchive reading
202322.1Calmarchive reading
202423.8Calmarchive reading
202530.3Calmarchive reading
Spain · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202650Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Japan, 2005

Details
Japan, 2005Finland, 1999Singapore, 2009

JPN, 2005

Published archive distance 0.3039. This similarity is not a forecast.

FIN, 1999

Published archive distance 0.3297. This similarity is not a forecast.

SGP, 2009

Published archive distance 0.3505. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Spain
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events18%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 58.6

Spain in this snapshot

Spain (ESP) records Calm pressure at 50.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 58.6.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

4 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Spain has pressure score 50/100 in Calm. 108 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 109. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Djibouti (DJI), 51/100, higher by 1; Côte d'Ivoire (CIV), 49.2/100, lower by 0.8.

Spain's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 74.4). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 27.4). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Spain: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949474.468.676.90
1950-19591062.458.869.80
1960-19691061.156.965.40
1970-19791061.657.963.90
1980-19891050.928.465.90
1990-19991035.223.858.80
2000-20091029.823.646.80
2010-20191043.223.160.10
2020-2025627.416.8540

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Spain's mapped-score peak is 76.9 in 1946; the minimum is 16.8 in 2021.

Spain is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 45 of 80 readings: 1946-1982, 1985-1987, 1991, 2011-2013, 2019. The remaining 35 are below 55.

Spain is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 10 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1953, 1959, 1965-1966, 1981. The remaining 70 are below 65.

Spain never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Spain is 2019 to 2020: Watch (59.8) to Calm (54). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Spain records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts