LAO, 1971
Published archive distance 0.0182. This similarity is not a forecast.
YEM
Yemen
Yemen has a Crisis pressure reading, among the highest scores.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
88 / 100
#2 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Yemen in November or December 2026: 16% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Yemen in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Yemen, or with Yemen as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 16% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population41.8M41,773,878 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalSana'a (de jure; Houthi-controlled since 2014. IRG operates from Aden)Sana'a (de jure; Houthi-controlled since 2014. IRG operates from Aden)
Area528k km²527968
GDP~$21.6B (2018)~21.6 USD bn (2018, WB , stale >6 years) · Year 2018 · Source: World Bank, 2018
CurrencyYERYER , Yemeni rial (multiple exchange rates: IRG area vs Houthi area)
LanguagesArabicArabic
Armed forces40k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 94.8 (2020-2025); lowest 78.9 (2000s).
Details
Recorded events 47 · Country record
- 9 Jan 2026conflict escalation
- 24 Jan 2015street pressure
- 22 Jan 2015leadership break
- 1 Sep 2014external support
- 18 Aug 2014street pressure
- 26 Apr 2014new sanctions
- 11 Feb 2014street pressure
- 7 Sep 2012street pressure
- 18 Mar 2012street pressure
- 2012election
- 24 Dec 2011street pressure
- 11 Nov 2011street pressure
Show all 47
- 18 Oct 2011street pressure
- 2 Sep 2011street pressure
- 17 Jul 2011street pressure
- 10 Jun 2011street pressure
- 13 May 2011street pressure
- 2 Apr 2011street pressure
- 2 Mar 2011street pressure
- 18 Feb 2011street pressure
- 1 Jul 2010external support
- 28 Dec 2008street pressure
- 27 Mar 2008street pressure
- 2006election
- 22 Mar 2003street pressure
- 9 Apr 2002street pressure
- 24 Mar 2001street pressure
- 1999election
- 1 Oct 1997external support
- 1 Mar 1996external support
- 1995currency stress
- 1994currency stress
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 24 Jun 1978leadership break
- 11 Oct 1977leadership break
- 13 Jun 1974leadership break
- 1973sovereign stress
- 1972conflict escalation
- 5 Nov 1967leadership break
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964conflict escalation
- 27 Sep 1962leadership break
- 13 Mar 1948leadership break
- 17 Feb 1948leadership break
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 82.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 81.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 87.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 92.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 92.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1992 | 81.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1998 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 77.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 75.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 66.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 87.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 85.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 92.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Lao People's Democratic Republic, 1971
Details
COD, 2005
Published archive distance 0.0205. This similarity is not a forecast.
BDI, 2005
Published archive distance 0.0308. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy30%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 1 of 8; Inferred: 6 of 8; Unknown: 1 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events68%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information87%Confirmed: 2 of 3; Sourced: 1 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society63%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 64The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Yemen in this snapshot
Yemen (YEM) records Crisis pressure at 88.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is crisis; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 64.0.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Yemen has pressure score 88/100 in Crisis. 1 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 2. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Sudan (SDN), 88/100, tied; Haiti (HTI), 85/100, lower by 3.
Yemen's highest decade mean is recorded in 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 94.8). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 78.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 92.8 | 86.3 | 95 | 4 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 85.3 | 79.8 | 95 | 9 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 90 | 79.3 | 95 | 8 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 90.6 | 79.3 | 95 | 9 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 87.8 | 82.9 | 95 | 10 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 81.2 | 77.4 | 95 | 3 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 78.9 | 65.4 | 95 | 4 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 94.7 | 92.1 | 95 | 10 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 94.8 | 94 | 95 | 6 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Yemen's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1950-1952, 1962-1964, 1966-1967, 1974-1978, 1986, 1994, 2009-2012, 2014-2023, 2025; the minimum is 65.4 in 2002.
Every published year for Yemen, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Every published year for Yemen, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 65: 80 of 80 readings.
Yemen is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 63 of 80 readings: 1946-1958, 1962-1971, 1973-1990, 1992, 1994, 2005-2006, 2008-2025. The remaining 17 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Yemen is 2007 to 2008: Strain (73.3) to Crisis (89.8). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Yemen records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.