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Estonia

Estonia has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

19 / 100

#175 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Estonia in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Estonia in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Estonia, or with Estonia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population1.4M
CapitalTallinn
Area45.2k km²
GDP$47B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesEstonian
Armed forces7k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
30.38
L3 Politics
22
L4 Events
17.2
L5 Information
17.36
L6 Society
47

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 67.3 (1980s); lowest 23.6 (2020-2025).

Details

Recorded events 13 · Country record

  • 1 Mar 2000external support
  • 1 Dec 1997external support
  • 1 Jul 1996external support
  • 1996currency stress
  • 1 Apr 1995external support
  • 1995currency stress
  • 1994currency stress
  • 1 Oct 1993external support
  • 19 Jun 1993street pressure
  • 1993currency stress
  • 1992currency stress
  • 1992election
Show all 13
  • 1991currency stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Estonia · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
196395.0Crisisarchive reading
196495.0Crisisarchive reading
196595.0Crisisarchive reading
196695.0Crisisarchive reading
196715Calmarchive reading
196815Calmarchive reading
196915Calmarchive reading
197015Calmarchive reading
197115Calmarchive reading
197215Calmarchive reading
197364.6Watcharchive reading
197415Calmarchive reading
197515Calmarchive reading
197615Calmarchive reading
197715Calmarchive reading
197815Calmarchive reading
197995.0Crisisarchive reading
198081.0Crisisarchive reading
198179.9Strainarchive reading
198279.1Strainarchive reading
198378.3Strainarchive reading
198460.5Watcharchive reading
198560.7Watcharchive reading
198660.1Watcharchive reading
198760.1Watcharchive reading
198859.0Watcharchive reading
198954.0Calmarchive reading
199051.6Calmarchive reading
199174.4Strainarchive reading
199273.7Strainarchive reading
199367.7Strainarchive reading
199466.9Strainarchive reading
199556.7Watcharchive reading
199656.3Watcharchive reading
199754.2Calmarchive reading
199851.7Calmarchive reading
199962.9Watcharchive reading
200056.9Watcharchive reading
200155.7Watcharchive reading
200253.5Calmarchive reading
200348.8Calmarchive reading
200444.3Calmarchive reading
200552.6Calmarchive reading
200651.1Calmarchive reading
200758.1Watcharchive reading
200862.5Watcharchive reading
200962.3Watcharchive reading
201059.8Watcharchive reading
201159.6Watcharchive reading
201259.4Watcharchive reading
201359.3Watcharchive reading
201443.6Calmarchive reading
201543.0Calmarchive reading
201629.6Calmarchive reading
201729.1Calmarchive reading
201828.6Calmarchive reading
201919.3Calmarchive reading
202032.9Calmarchive reading
202118.4Calmarchive reading
202222.5Calmarchive reading
202330.1Calmarchive reading
202418.8Calmarchive reading
202519.0Calmarchive reading
Estonia · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202619.0Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Canada, 2006

Details
Canada, 2006Denmark, 1999Ireland, 2005

CAN, 2006

Published archive distance 0.2146. This similarity is not a forecast.

DNK, 1999

Published archive distance 0.2346. This similarity is not a forecast.

IRL, 2005

Published archive distance 0.2633. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Estonia
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-171Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-061Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-270Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-144Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z3Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics89%
L4 Events62%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society63%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 65.1

Estonia in this snapshot

Estonia (EST) records Calm pressure at 19.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 65.1.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 64 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Estonia has pressure score 19/100 in Calm. 174 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 175. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Gambia (GMB), 19.1/100, higher by 0.1; Panama (PAN), 18.9/100, lower by 0.1.

Estonia's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 67.3). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 23.6). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Estonia: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1963-1969760.715954
1970-1979102815951
1980-19891067.354811
1990-19991061.651.674.40
2000-20091054.644.362.50
2010-20191043.119.359.80
2020-2025623.618.432.90

Across 63 annual readings (1963-2025), Estonia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1963-1966, 1979; the minimum is 15 in 1967-1972, 1974-1978.

Estonia is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 31 of 63 readings: 1963-1966, 1973, 1979-1988, 1991-1996, 1999-2001, 2007-2013. The remaining 32 are below 55.

Estonia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 13 of 63 readings: 1963-1966, 1979-1983, 1991-1994. The remaining 50 are below 65.

Estonia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 6 of 63 readings: 1963-1966, 1979-1980. The remaining 57 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Estonia is 2013 to 2014: Watch (59.3) to Calm (43.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Estonia records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

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