MEX, 1992
Published archive distance 0.2427. This similarity is not a forecast.
UGA
Uganda
Uganda has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
58 / 100
#59 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Uganda in November or December 2026: 5.3% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Uganda in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Uganda, or with Uganda as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 5.3% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population51.4M51,384,894 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalKampalaKampala
Area241.6k km²241550
GDP$62B (2025)62.0 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyUGXUGX , Ugandan shilling
LanguagesEnglish, SwahiliEnglish, Swahili
Armed forces46k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 94.5 (1980s); lowest 69.1 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 84 · Country record
- 1 Jun 2021external support
- 1 Jan 2021capital controls
- 2021election
- 2016election
- 2015currency stress
- 1 Jun 2013external support
- 2011election
- 1 May 2010external support
- Mar 2007conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 2006external support
- 1 Feb 2006external support
- 2006election
Show all 84
- Oct 2004conflict escalation
- Feb 2004conflict escalation
- Aug 2003conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 2002external support
- Jul 2002conflict escalation
- Jun 2002conflict escalation
- Feb 2002conflict escalation
- Sep 2001conflict escalation
- Mar 2001conflict escalation
- 2001election
- Jul 2000conflict escalation
- Jan 2000conflict escalation
- Dec 1999conflict escalation
- Sep 1999conflict escalation
- Jul 1999conflict escalation
- Mar 1998conflict escalation
- 1 Nov 1997external support
- Aug 1997conflict escalation
- Jun 1997conflict escalation
- Jan 1997conflict escalation
- Nov 1996conflict escalation
- Jul 1996conflict escalation
- Feb 1996conflict escalation
- 1996election
- Aug 1995conflict escalation
- Apr 1995conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 1994external support
- Jul 1994conflict escalation
- 1994election
- 1992currency stress
- 1 Jun 1991external support
- Mar 1991conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1991capital controls
- Jan 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- Jun 1990conflict escalation
- Feb 1990conflict escalation
- 1990currency stress
- May 1989conflict escalation
- 1989currency stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987currency stress
- 1987conflict escalation
- 29 Jan 1986leadership break
- 1986currency stress
- 1986conflict escalation
- 27 Jul 1985leadership break
- 1985currency stress
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983currency stress
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1982capital controls
- 1982currency stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981currency stress
- 1981conflict escalation
- 12 May 1980leadership break
- 1980currency stress
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979currency stress
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978currency stress
- 1977currency stress
- 1975currency stress
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 25 Jan 1971leadership break
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970sovereign stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 71.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 90.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 73.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 70.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 69.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 81.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 90.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 90.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 87.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 90.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 94.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 80.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 81.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 82.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 85.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 81.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 82.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 91.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 91.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 89.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 70.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 79.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 71.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 59.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 51.7 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Mexico, 1992
Details
JOR, 1979
Published archive distance 0.2604. This similarity is not a forecast.
IRQ, 1978
Published archive distance 0.2611. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics84%Confirmed: 5 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events54%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 3 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 62The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Uganda in this snapshot
Uganda (UGA) records Watch pressure at 58.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 62.0.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Uganda has pressure score 58/100 in Watch. 58 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 11 share this score. Its competition rank is 59. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Sierra Leone (SLE), 58/100, tied; India (IND), 56/100, lower by 2.
Uganda's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 94.5). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 69.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 89.2 | 71.7 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 79.2 | 70.8 | 91 | 4 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 74.7 | 68.2 | 84.1 | 3 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 88.1 | 79.8 | 95 | 9 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 94.5 | 90.4 | 95 | 10 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 90.5 | 80.9 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 88.9 | 81.6 | 95 | 10 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 85.6 | 70.6 | 91.5 | 8 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 69.1 | 51.7 | 83.3 | 1 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Uganda's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1973, 1975, 1981, 1984-1991, 1996-2000, 2002-2005; the minimum is 51.7 in 2025.
Uganda is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2024. The remaining 1 are below 55.
Uganda is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 78 of 80 readings: 1946-2023. The remaining 2 are below 65.
Uganda is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 58 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950, 1953-1954, 1958, 1966-1968, 1970-1976, 1978-2017, 2022. The remaining 22 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Uganda is 2024 to 2025: Watch (59.7) to Calm (51.7). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Uganda records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.