supply
Cobalt: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 8.6 low · upward pressure
DR Congo
humanitarian pressure
COD
Congo, The Democratic Republic of the
Congo, The Democratic Republic of the has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
72 / 100
#26 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, or with the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 22% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population112.8M112,832,473 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalKinshasaKinshasa
Area2.3M km²2344858
GDP$91B (2025)91.0 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyCDFCDF , Congolese franc (FC)
LanguagesFrench + moreFrench, Kikongo, Lingala, Tshiluba, Swahili
Armed forces134k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 93.9 (2000s); lowest 78 (1950s).
Details
Recorded events 44 · Country record
- 2023election
- 2018election
- 2017currency stress
- 2011election
- 2009currency stress
- 2006election
- 28 Jul 2003new sanctions
- 2002currency stress
- 2001currency stress
- 2000currency stress
- 1999currency stress
- 1998currency stress
Show all 44
- 1997currency stress
- 1996currency stress
- 1995currency stress
- 1994currency stress
- 1993currency stress
- 1992currency stress
- 1991currency stress
- 1990currency stress
- 1989currency stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1987currency stress
- 1986currency stress
- 1985currency stress
- 1984currency stress
- 1984election
- 1983currency stress
- 1982currency stress
- 1981currency stress
- 1980currency stress
- 1979currency stress
- 1978currency stress
- 1 Jun 1977external support
- 1977currency stress
- 1977election
- 1976currency stress
- 1972currency stress
- 1970election
- 1968currency stress
- 1967currency stress
- 1965currency stress
- 1963currency stress
- 1962currency stress
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 92.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 74.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 81.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 89.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 81.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1963 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1965 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 88.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 85.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 69.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 68.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 78.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 90.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 90.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 85.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 89.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 76.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 80.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 94.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 87.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 91.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 93.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
2 points · Mixed directions
Point snapshot:
Details
demand
Copper: mine supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an import demand link.
Point score: 3.6 low · softer demand pressure
China · DR Congo
humanitarian pressure · information disruption
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: El Salvador, 1992
Details
SLV, 1992
Published archive distance 0.119. This similarity is not a forecast.
SLE, 2002
Published archive distance 0.1257. This similarity is not a forecast.
SDN, 1974
Published archive distance 0.1362. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 2 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics90%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 0 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events62%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society70%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 66.6The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Congo, The Democratic Republic of the in this snapshot
Congo, The Democratic Republic of the (COD) records Strain pressure at 72.0 of 100 and touches 2 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 66.6.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 2 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Congo, The Democratic Republic of the has pressure score 72/100 in Strain. 25 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 5 share this score. Its competition rank is 26. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Central African Republic (CAF), 72/100, tied; Guinea-Bissau (GNB), 72/100, tied.
Congo, The Democratic Republic of the's highest decade mean is recorded in 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 93.9). The lowest is 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 78). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 90 | 74.9 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 78 | 74 | 93.9 | 2 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 88.5 | 81.1 | 95 | 10 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 80.5 | 68.7 | 90.8 | 4 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 78.7 | 76 | 89.6 | 1 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 92.9 | 80.3 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 93.9 | 87.8 | 95 | 10 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 93.7 | 87.7 | 95 | 10 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 92.7 | 83 | 95 | 6 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Congo, The Democratic Republic of the's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1964-1967, 1992-2003, 2007-2010, 2012-2014, 2016-2023; the minimum is 68.7 in 1972.
Every published year for Congo, The Democratic Republic of the, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Every published year for Congo, The Democratic Republic of the, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 65: 80 of 80 readings.
Congo, The Democratic Republic of the is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 56 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950, 1958, 1960-1970, 1975-1976, 1978, 1982, 1990-2025. The remaining 24 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Congo, The Democratic Republic of the is 1989 to 1990: Strain (76) to Crisis (80.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Congo, The Democratic Republic of the records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.