NPL, 2009
Published archive distance 0.2696. This similarity is not a forecast.
TCD
Chad
Chad has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
68 / 100
#33 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Chad in November or December 2026: 30% · real chance
Chance of a conflict escalation in Chad in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Chad, or with Chad as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 30% · real chance
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population21M21,003,705 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalN'DjamenaN'Djamena
Area1.3M km²1284000
GDP$21.5B (2025)21.47 USD bn (2025, WB) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyXAFXAF , Central African CFA franc (Fr)
LanguagesArabic, FrenchArabic, French
Armed forces45k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 89.6 (1980s); lowest 78.1 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 77 · Country record
- Nov 2025conflict escalation
- 1 Jul 2025external support
- May 2025conflict escalation
- Oct 2024conflict escalation
- Mar 2024conflict escalation
- 2024election
- Sep 2023conflict escalation
- May 2023conflict escalation
- Feb 2022conflict escalation
- 1 Dec 2021external support
- Apr 2021conflict escalation
- 2021election
Show all 77
- Sep 2020conflict escalation
- Jul 2020conflict escalation
- Feb 2020conflict escalation
- Jan 2020conflict escalation
- Aug 2019conflict escalation
- Apr 2019conflict escalation
- Oct 2018conflict escalation
- Aug 2018conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 2017external support
- 2016election
- Jul 2015conflict escalation
- Jun 2015conflict escalation
- May 2015conflict escalation
- 1 Aug 2014external support
- 2011election
- May 2009conflict escalation
- Jan 2008conflict escalation
- Nov 2007conflict escalation
- Sep 2006conflict escalation
- Apr 2006conflict escalation
- Mar 2006conflict escalation
- 2006election
- 1 Feb 2005external support
- Mar 2004conflict escalation
- 2001election
- Dec 2000conflict escalation
- Nov 2000conflict escalation
- Jul 2000conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2000external support
- Mar 1998conflict escalation
- 1997election
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 1996election
- 1 Sep 1995external support
- 1 Mar 1994external support
- Jan 1994conflict escalation
- 1994currency stress
- Aug 1993conflict escalation
- Jan 1993conflict escalation
- Jun 1992conflict escalation
- Jan 1992conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982currency stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981currency stress
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1979capital controls
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1971capital controls
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970sovereign stress
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969election
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 89.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 73.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 72.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 72.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 80.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 80.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 91.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 91.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 88.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 88.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 94.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 82.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 84.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 91.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 92.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1996 | 71.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 85.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 84.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 92.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 70.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 84.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 80.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 76.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 66.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2015 | 81.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 93.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2019 | 85.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 85.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 93.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 93.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 58.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Nepal, 2009
Details
LBN, 1993
Published archive distance 0.28. This similarity is not a forecast.
BOL, 1989
Published archive distance 0.2805. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 27 Aug 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy63%Confirmed: 2 of 8; Sourced: 4 of 8; Inferred: 2 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics74%Confirmed: 4 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 2 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events92%Confirmed: 4 of 5; Sourced: 1 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information60%Confirmed: 0 of 3; Sourced: 3 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society68%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 3 of 6; Inferred: 1 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 69.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Chad in this snapshot
Chad (TCD) records Strain pressure at 68.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 69.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Chad has pressure score 68/100 in Strain. 32 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 8 share this score. Its competition rank is 33. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Burkina Faso (BFA), 68/100, tied; Colombia (COL), 68/100, tied.
Chad's highest decade mean is recorded in 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 89.6). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 78.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 88.3 | 68.4 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 89.1 | 88.9 | 89.2 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 78.1 | 72.3 | 89.2 | 3 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 89.5 | 80 | 95 | 10 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 89.6 | 82.4 | 95 | 10 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 87.8 | 71.9 | 95 | 8 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 85.1 | 70.6 | 95 | 9 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 81.3 | 66.9 | 93.6 | 7 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 81.8 | 58.8 | 95 | 4 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Chad's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1976-1980, 1987, 1990, 1992-1993, 2000, 2006, 2008, 2021; the minimum is 58.8 in 2025.
Every published year for Chad, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Chad is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2024. The remaining 1 are below 65.
Chad is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 64 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1960, 1963, 1966, 1970-1994, 1997-2003, 2005-2010, 2013, 2015-2023. The remaining 16 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Chad is 2024 to 2025: Strain (65.7) to Watch (58.8). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Chad records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.