CassandrIA
BRBBarbados flag

Barbados

Barbados has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.

🟢 Calm

20.3 / 100

#170 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Barbados in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Barbados in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Barbados, or with Barbados as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population282.6k
CapitalBridgetown
Area430 km²
GDP$8B (2025)
CurrencyBBD
LanguagesEnglish
Armed forces1k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
62.5
L3 Politics
14
L4 Events
41.5
L5 Information
52.91
L6 Society
40

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 68.6 (1950s); lowest 33.1 (1946-1949).

Details

Recorded events 5 · Country record

  • 1 Dec 2022external support
  • 2022sovereign stress
  • 1 Oct 2018external support
  • 2018sovereign stress
  • 1 Jan 1996capital controls

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Barbados · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194635.3Calmarchive reading
194735.3Calmarchive reading
194835.3Calmarchive reading
194926.5Calmarchive reading
195069.6Strainarchive reading
195169.4Strainarchive reading
195269.3Strainarchive reading
195369.0Strainarchive reading
195468.7Strainarchive reading
195568.4Strainarchive reading
195668.1Strainarchive reading
195767.9Strainarchive reading
195867.7Strainarchive reading
195967.6Strainarchive reading
196067.2Strainarchive reading
196156.1Watcharchive reading
196256.1Watcharchive reading
196370.2Strainarchive reading
196455.9Watcharchive reading
196555.8Watcharchive reading
196655.7Watcharchive reading
196755.5Watcharchive reading
196855.2Watcharchive reading
196954.0Calmarchive reading
197051.6Calmarchive reading
197151.2Calmarchive reading
197251.6Calmarchive reading
197351.1Calmarchive reading
197467.5Strainarchive reading
197552.9Calmarchive reading
197651.6Calmarchive reading
197751.2Calmarchive reading
197850.0Calmarchive reading
197948.5Calmarchive reading
198047.5Calmarchive reading
198166.3Strainarchive reading
198266.7Strainarchive reading
198349.2Calmarchive reading
198448.6Calmarchive reading
198548.5Calmarchive reading
198647.8Calmarchive reading
198747.5Calmarchive reading
198846.6Calmarchive reading
198941.5Calmarchive reading
199062.3Watcharchive reading
199162.5Watcharchive reading
199262.9Watcharchive reading
199344.4Calmarchive reading
199444.1Calmarchive reading
199543.7Calmarchive reading
199642.9Calmarchive reading
199742.0Calmarchive reading
199841.2Calmarchive reading
199941.2Calmarchive reading
200040.2Calmarchive reading
200162.1Watcharchive reading
200241.2Calmarchive reading
200341.0Calmarchive reading
200441.1Calmarchive reading
200540.2Calmarchive reading
200639.8Calmarchive reading
200737.4Calmarchive reading
200837.4Calmarchive reading
200961.6Watcharchive reading
201061.6Watcharchive reading
201161.5Watcharchive reading
201261.5Watcharchive reading
201361.8Watcharchive reading
201462.2Watcharchive reading
201539.8Calmarchive reading
201638.5Calmarchive reading
201739.6Calmarchive reading
201875.8Strainarchive reading
201975.3Strainarchive reading
202071.6Strainarchive reading
202124.1Calmarchive reading
202260.2Watcharchive reading
202321.6Calmarchive reading
202420.3Calmarchive reading
202520.3Calmarchive reading
Barbados · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202620.3Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Mauritius, 2003

Details
Mauritius, 2003Ireland, 1990Singapore, 1993

MUS, 2003

Published archive distance 0.7013. This similarity is not a forecast.

IRL, 1990

Published archive distance 0.7106. This similarity is not a forecast.

SGP, 1993

Published archive distance 0.7476. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Barbados
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-062Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-271Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-144Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z1Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics73%
L4 Events42%
L5 Information60%
L6 Society63%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 58

Barbados in this snapshot

Barbados (BRB) records Calm pressure at 20.3 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 58.0.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Barbados has pressure score 20.3/100 in Calm. 169 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 170. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Guyana (GUY), 21.4/100, higher by 1.1; Lithuania (LTU), 20.2/100, lower by 0.1.

Barbados's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 68.6). The lowest is 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 33.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Barbados: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949433.126.535.30
1950-19591068.667.669.60
1960-19691058.25470.20
1970-19791052.748.567.50
1980-1989105141.566.70
1990-19991048.741.262.90
2000-20091044.237.462.10
2010-20191057.838.575.80
2020-2025636.420.371.60

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Barbados's mapped-score peak is 75.8 in 2018; the minimum is 20.3 in 2024-2025.

Barbados is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 36 of 80 readings: 1950-1968, 1974, 1981-1982, 1990-1992, 2001, 2009-2014, 2018-2020, 2022. The remaining 44 are below 55.

Barbados is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 18 of 80 readings: 1950-1960, 1963, 1974, 1981-1982, 2018-2020. The remaining 62 are below 65.

Barbados never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Barbados is 2022 to 2023: Watch (60.2) to Calm (21.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Barbados records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts