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Qatar has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟡 Watch

58 / 100

#59 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Qatar in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Qatar in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Qatar, or with Qatar as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population3M
CapitalDoha
Area11.6k km²
GDP$215.6B (2025)
CurrencyQAR
LanguagesArabic
Armed forces22k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
68.75
L3 Politics
67.25
L4 Events
55.8
L5 Information
59.04
L6 Society
73.75

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 60.5 (1946-1949); lowest 28.1 (2000s).

Details

Recorded events 2 · Country record

  • 27 Jun 1995leadership break
  • 22 Feb 1972leadership break

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Qatar · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194663.1Watcharchive reading
194763.1Watcharchive reading
194863.1Watcharchive reading
194952.9Calmarchive reading
195052.9Calmarchive reading
195152.9Calmarchive reading
195252.9Calmarchive reading
195352.9Calmarchive reading
195452.9Calmarchive reading
195552.9Calmarchive reading
195652.9Calmarchive reading
195752.9Calmarchive reading
195852.9Calmarchive reading
195952.9Calmarchive reading
196050.6Calmarchive reading
196150.6Calmarchive reading
196250.6Calmarchive reading
196350.6Calmarchive reading
196450.6Calmarchive reading
196550.6Calmarchive reading
196650.6Calmarchive reading
196750.6Calmarchive reading
196850.6Calmarchive reading
196950.6Calmarchive reading
197035.4Calmarchive reading
197156.2Watcharchive reading
197262.6Watcharchive reading
197362.1Watcharchive reading
197461.7Watcharchive reading
197561.0Watcharchive reading
197660.5Watcharchive reading
197763.5Watcharchive reading
197847.1Calmarchive reading
197945.7Calmarchive reading
198062.5Watcharchive reading
198143.7Calmarchive reading
198262.1Watcharchive reading
198362.1Watcharchive reading
198441.5Calmarchive reading
198561.8Watcharchive reading
198640.4Calmarchive reading
198739.9Calmarchive reading
198839.5Calmarchive reading
198938.0Calmarchive reading
199035.3Calmarchive reading
199159.4Watcharchive reading
199234.5Calmarchive reading
199359.3Watcharchive reading
199433.6Calmarchive reading
199556.5Watcharchive reading
199656.3Watcharchive reading
199756.3Watcharchive reading
199856.2Watcharchive reading
199956.2Watcharchive reading
200029.4Calmarchive reading
200129.2Calmarchive reading
200229.0Calmarchive reading
200328.8Calmarchive reading
200424.7Calmarchive reading
200528.4Calmarchive reading
200628.2Calmarchive reading
200728.0Calmarchive reading
200827.6Calmarchive reading
200927.4Calmarchive reading
201027.5Calmarchive reading
201127.4Calmarchive reading
201227.3Calmarchive reading
201327.6Calmarchive reading
201427.5Calmarchive reading
201527.5Calmarchive reading
201627.6Calmarchive reading
201726.7Calmarchive reading
201826.8Calmarchive reading
201958.0Watcharchive reading
202041.3Calmarchive reading
202125.5Calmarchive reading
202225.5Calmarchive reading
202326.9Calmarchive reading
202427.5Calmarchive reading
202534.8Calmarchive reading
Qatar · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202658.0Strainarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Germany, 1982

Details
Germany, 1982Slovenia, 2009Denmark, 1987

DEU, 1982

Published archive distance 0.3102. This similarity is not a forecast.

SVN, 2009

Published archive distance 0.3271. This similarity is not a forecast.

DNK, 1987

Published archive distance 0.4074. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Qatar
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-170Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-062Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-272Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-142Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z3Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy75%
L3 Politics77%
L4 Events62%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society87%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 2Confidence 72.9

Qatar in this snapshot

Qatar (QAT) records Watch pressure at 58.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 72.9.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Qatar has pressure score 58/100 in Watch. 58 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 11 share this score. Its competition rank is 59. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Poland (POL), 58/100, tied; Senegal (SEN), 58/100, tied.

Qatar's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 60.5). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 28.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Qatar: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949460.552.963.10
1950-19591052.952.952.90
1960-19691050.650.650.60
1970-19791055.635.463.50
1980-19891049.13862.50
1990-19991050.433.659.40
2000-20091028.124.729.40
2010-20191030.426.7580
2020-2025630.225.541.30

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Qatar's mapped-score peak is 63.5 in 1977; the minimum is 24.7 in 2004.

Qatar is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 22 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1971-1977, 1980, 1982-1983, 1985, 1991, 1993, 1995-1999, 2019. The remaining 58 are below 55.

Qatar never reaches the historical threshold 65 in the 80 published annual readings.

Qatar never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Qatar is 2019 to 2020: Watch (58) to Calm (41.3). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Qatar records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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