CassandrIA
DEUGermany flag

Germany

Germany has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.

🟠 Strain

68 / 100

#33 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Germany in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Germany in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Germany, or with Germany as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population83.5M
CapitalBerlin
Area357.1k km²
GDP$5.1T (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesGerman
Armed forces183k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
35.26
L3 Politics
20.04
L4 Events
5
L5 Information
15.52
L6 Society
57

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 79.4 (1946-1949); lowest 26.1 (1980s).

Details

Recorded events 46 · Country record

  • 20 Sep 2019street pressure
  • 15 Feb 2019street pressure
  • 4 Oct 2018street pressure
  • 27 May 2018street pressure
  • 10 Oct 2015street pressure
  • 5 Jan 2015street pressure
  • 8 Dec 2014street pressure
  • 1 Nov 2014street pressure
  • 1 May 2012street pressure
  • 11 Feb 2012street pressure
  • 25 Apr 2011street pressure
  • 12 Mar 2011street pressure
Show all 46
  • 6 Nov 2010street pressure
  • 1 Oct 2010street pressure
  • 18 Sep 2010street pressure
  • 28 May 2009street pressure
  • 30 Apr 2009street pressure
  • 28 Feb 2007street pressure
  • 19 Jan 2006street pressure
  • 6 Sep 2004street pressure
  • 23 Aug 2004street pressure
  • 3 Apr 2004street pressure
  • 30 Mar 2004street pressure
  • 1 Nov 2003street pressure
  • 1 May 2003street pressure
  • 16 Dec 2002street pressure
  • 1 May 2001street pressure
  • 26 Mar 2001street pressure
  • 22 Jul 2000street pressure
  • 1 May 2000street pressure
  • 20 Oct 1999street pressure
  • 5 Feb 1998street pressure
  • 1 May 1997street pressure
  • 3 Mar 1997street pressure
  • 25 Oct 1996street pressure
  • 9 May 1994street pressure
  • 18 Sep 1993street pressure
  • 12 May 1993street pressure
  • 1 Jan 1993street pressure
  • 6 Dec 1992street pressure
  • 8 Nov 1992street pressure
  • 8 Apr 1991street pressure
  • 1 Mar 1991street pressure
  • 27 Feb 1991street pressure
  • 17 Jan 1991street pressure
  • 1981currency stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Germany · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194684.0Crisisarchive reading
194783.5Crisisarchive reading
194882.6Crisisarchive reading
194967.5Strainarchive reading
195064.9Watcharchive reading
195158.5Watcharchive reading
195255.3Watcharchive reading
195353.9Calmarchive reading
195451.1Calmarchive reading
195548.3Calmarchive reading
195645.6Calmarchive reading
195743.6Calmarchive reading
195841.9Calmarchive reading
195940.2Calmarchive reading
196038.0Calmarchive reading
196136.3Calmarchive reading
196235.3Calmarchive reading
196333.9Calmarchive reading
196432.3Calmarchive reading
196530.7Calmarchive reading
196630.1Calmarchive reading
196729.5Calmarchive reading
196827.6Calmarchive reading
196927.3Calmarchive reading
197026.9Calmarchive reading
197126.8Calmarchive reading
197226.5Calmarchive reading
197326.7Calmarchive reading
197426.5Calmarchive reading
197555.6Watcharchive reading
197625.5Calmarchive reading
197725.5Calmarchive reading
197825.0Calmarchive reading
197924.6Calmarchive reading
198024.2Calmarchive reading
198123.9Calmarchive reading
198255.4Watcharchive reading
198323.1Calmarchive reading
198423.5Calmarchive reading
198523.1Calmarchive reading
198622.8Calmarchive reading
198722.4Calmarchive reading
198822.1Calmarchive reading
198920.5Calmarchive reading
199036.0Calmarchive reading
199155.9Watcharchive reading
199242.5Calmarchive reading
199360.0Watcharchive reading
199436.9Calmarchive reading
199535.4Calmarchive reading
199650.4Calmarchive reading
199743.9Calmarchive reading
199832.1Calmarchive reading
199931.2Calmarchive reading
200035.8Calmarchive reading
200156.6Watcharchive reading
200259.1Watcharchive reading
200357.9Watcharchive reading
200433.8Calmarchive reading
200533.1Calmarchive reading
200627.0Calmarchive reading
200748.1Calmarchive reading
200847.7Calmarchive reading
200957.3Watcharchive reading
201042.2Calmarchive reading
201125.4Calmarchive reading
201235.7Calmarchive reading
201325.8Calmarchive reading
201432.3Calmarchive reading
201548.4Calmarchive reading
201646.0Calmarchive reading
201731.0Calmarchive reading
201849.2Calmarchive reading
201918.8Calmarchive reading
202036.7Calmarchive reading
202122.1Calmarchive reading
202223.7Calmarchive reading
202325.2Calmarchive reading
202426.0Calmarchive reading
202524.3Calmarchive reading
Germany · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202668Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Portugal, 2001

Details
Portugal, 2001Spain, 2001United States, 1966

PRT, 2001

Published archive distance 0.2254. This similarity is not a forecast.

ESP, 2001

Published archive distance 0.2488. This similarity is not a forecast.

USA, 1966

Published archive distance 0.3007. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Germany
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-282Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-170Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy65%
L3 Politics66%
L4 Events30%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society67%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 3Confidence 60.3

Germany in this snapshot

Germany (DEU) records Strain pressure at 68.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 60.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Germany has pressure score 68/100 in Strain. 32 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 8 share this score. Its competition rank is 33. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Ethiopia (ETH), 68/100, tied; Iraq (IRQ), 68/100, tied.

Germany's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 79.4). The lowest is 1980-1989 (10 readings, mean 26.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Germany: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949479.467.5843
1950-19591050.340.264.90
1960-19691032.127.3380
1970-1979102924.655.60
1980-19891026.120.555.40
1990-19991042.431.2600
2000-20091045.62759.10
2010-20191035.518.849.20
2020-2025626.322.136.70

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Germany's mapped-score peak is 84 in 1946; the minimum is 18.8 in 2019.

Germany is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 15 of 80 readings: 1946-1952, 1975, 1982, 1991, 1993, 2001-2003, 2009. The remaining 65 are below 55.

Germany is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 4 of 80 readings: 1946-1949. The remaining 76 are below 65.

Germany is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 3 of 80 readings: 1946-1948. The remaining 77 are below 80.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Germany is 2009 to 2010: Watch (57.3) to Calm (42.2). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Germany records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts