supply
Rice: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 33.0 elevated · upward pressure
India · Pakistan
armed conflict activity · humanitarian pressure · information disruption
PAK
Pakistan
Pakistan has a Crisis pressure reading, near the top of the ranking.
🔴 CrisisThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
84 / 100
#9 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Pakistan in November or December 2026: 9.8% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Pakistan in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Pakistan, or with Pakistan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 9.8% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population255.2M255,219,554 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalIslamabadIslamabad · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Area881.9k km²881912 · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
GDP$407.3B (2025)4.07307e+11 USD (2025, WB NY.GDP.MKTP.CD) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyPKRPKR · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
LanguagesEnglish, UrduEnglish, Urdu · As of 2026-10-06 · Source: Mledoze country data
Armed forces943k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 94.9 (1947-1949); lowest 78.6 (1960s).
Details
Recorded events 107 · Country record
- 29 Jan 2026conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 2024external support
- 1 Jul 2023external support
- Jan 2023conflict escalation
- Dec 2022conflict escalation
- Mar 2022conflict escalation
- Feb 2022conflict escalation
- Apr 2020conflict escalation
- Feb 2020conflict escalation
- 2020sovereign stress
- 1 Jul 2019external support
- Apr 2019conflict escalation
Show all 107
- 2019currency stress
- Nov 2018conflict escalation
- 22 Aug 2018street pressure
- Jul 2018conflict escalation
- 8 Apr 2018street pressure
- Feb 2017conflict escalation
- Aug 2016conflict escalation
- Mar 2016conflict escalation
- 10 Oct 2014street pressure
- 14 Aug 2014street pressure
- Jun 2014conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2014displacement surge
- Jan 2014conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 2013external support
- 14 Jan 2013street pressure
- Jan 2013conflict escalation
- 23 Dec 2012street pressure
- 25 Dec 2011street pressure
- 30 Oct 2011street pressure
- 9 Jan 2011street pressure
- Jan 2010conflict escalation
- May 2009conflict escalation
- Jan 2009conflict escalation
- 1 Nov 2008external support
- Aug 2008conflict escalation
- Jul 2008conflict escalation
- 6 Jun 2008street pressure
- 27 Dec 2007street pressure
- 3 Nov 2007state of emergency
- Nov 2007conflict escalation
- Oct 2007conflict escalation
- 6 May 2007street pressure
- 15 Apr 2007street pressure
- Mar 2007conflict escalation
- 2007sovereign stress
- 30 Oct 2006street pressure
- Aug 2006conflict escalation
- Jul 2006conflict escalation
- Mar 2006conflict escalation
- 13 Feb 2006street pressure
- 14 Jan 2006street pressure
- Jan 2006conflict escalation
- Jul 2005conflict escalation
- 9 Mar 2005street pressure
- Jul 2003conflict escalation
- 2 Mar 2003street pressure
- Jun 2002conflict escalation
- May 2002conflict escalation
- 2002election
- 1 Dec 2001external support
- Dec 2001conflict escalation
- 5 Oct 2001street pressure
- 1 Nov 2000external support
- 12 Oct 1999leadership break
- 1 Sep 1999street pressure
- 25 Jul 1999street pressure
- May 1998conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1998capital controls
- 1 Oct 1997external support
- Feb 1997conflict escalation
- 5 Nov 1996leadership break
- 1 Dec 1995external support
- Jun 1995conflict escalation
- May 1995conflict escalation
- Nov 1994conflict escalation
- May 1994conflict escalation
- 1 Feb 1994external support
- 1 Sep 1993external support
- 18 Apr 1993leadership break
- 5 Dec 1992street pressure
- 18 Nov 1992street pressure
- Sep 1992conflict escalation
- 1 Sep 1991external support
- 27 May 1990street pressure
- May 1990conflict escalation
- Feb 1990conflict escalation
- 26 Jan 1990street pressure
- Mar 1989conflict escalation
- 1989sovereign stress
- 17 Aug 1988leadership break
- 1 Nov 1979external support
- 5 Jul 1977leadership break
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1972currency stress
- 1972sovereign stress
- 20 Dec 1971leadership break
- 1971conflict escalation
- 25 Mar 1969leadership break
- 1960sovereign stress
- 7 Oct 1958leadership break
- 1956currency stress
- 16 Oct 1951leadership break
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1947 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 92.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 73.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 72.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 75.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 78.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 91.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 78.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 92.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 71.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 90.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1976 | 84.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1977 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 87.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 87.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 81.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 88.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 84.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 84.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 84.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 81.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 82.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 85.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 86.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 86.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 82.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 82.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2008 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2010 | 91.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 91.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2012 | 90.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2013 | 91.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2014 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 88.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 77.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 83.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 79.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2022 | 79.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2023 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2025 | 85.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84 | Strain | estimated |
Pressure pointsA place or theme where pressure can affect connected countries.
2 points · Pressure mostly rising
Point snapshot:
Details
supply
Cotton: export supply
Point snapshot:
Country stress mapped to an export supply link.
Point score: 3.5 low · upward pressure
Pakistan
armed conflict activity · information disruption
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Bangladesh, 1993
Details
BGD, 1993
Published archive distance 0.3182. This similarity is not a forecast.
LKA, 2002
Published archive distance 0.3291. This similarity is not a forecast.
NGA, 1995
Published archive distance 0.332. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 28 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy60%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 8 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics66%Confirmed: 1 of 7; Sourced: 6 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events30%Confirmed: 0 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 2 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society67%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 5 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 4The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 59.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Pakistan in this snapshot
Pakistan (PAK) records Crisis pressure at 84.0 of 100 and touches 2 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 4. The source confidence score is 59.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 2 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 3 country change records; 80 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Pakistan has pressure score 84/100 in Crisis. 8 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 9. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): South Sudan (SSD), 85/100, higher by 1; Myanmar (MMR), 82/100, lower by 2.
Pakistan's highest decade mean is recorded in 1947-1949 (3 readings, mean 94.9). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 78.6). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1947-1949 | 3 | 94.9 | 94.8 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 78.9 | 72.1 | 92.6 | 3 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 78.6 | 71.3 | 92.6 | 2 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 89.3 | 78.3 | 95 | 9 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 85 | 78.3 | 95 | 8 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 82.8 | 68.4 | 88 | 9 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 87.2 | 74 | 95 | 8 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 89.5 | 77.8 | 95 | 8 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 86 | 79 | 95 | 4 |
Across 79 annual readings (1947-2025), Pakistan's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1948, 1971, 1974, 1978-1980, 2001, 2007-2009, 2014, 2016-2017, 2023; the minimum is 68.4 in 1993.
Every published year for Pakistan, 1947-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 79 of 79 readings.
Every published year for Pakistan, 1947-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 65: 79 of 79 readings.
Pakistan is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 54 of 79 readings: 1947-1950, 1954, 1959-1960, 1965, 1971-1985, 1988-1992, 1994-2004, 2007-2017, 2020, 2023-2025. The remaining 25 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Pakistan is 2022 to 2023: Strain (79) to Crisis (95). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Pakistan records 2 changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.