SYC, 2010
Published archive distance 0.1307. This similarity is not a forecast.
COL
Colombia
Colombia has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
68 / 100
#33 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Colombia in November or December 2026: 9.1% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Colombia in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Colombia, or with Colombia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 9.1% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population53.4M53,425,635 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalBogotáBogotá
Area1.1M km²1141748
GDP$457.4B (2025)457.4 USD bn (2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyCOPCOP , Colombian peso ($)
LanguagesSpanishSpanish
Armed forces428k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 87.7 (1946-1949); lowest 64.7 (2010s).
Details
Recorded events 181 · Country record
- 21 Jun 2026election
- Jan 2025conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 2024external support
- Jan 2024conflict escalation
- Sep 2023conflict escalation
- Jan 2023conflict escalation
- 1 Apr 2022external support
- Feb 2022conflict escalation
- Jan 2022conflict escalation
- 2022election
- Sep 2021conflict escalation
- 28 Apr 2021street pressure
Show all 181
- Jan 2021conflict escalation
- Sep 2020conflict escalation
- 1 May 2020external support
- 21 Nov 2019street pressure
- Jan 2019conflict escalation
- 1 May 2018external support
- Jan 2018conflict escalation
- 2018election
- 2017sovereign stress
- 5 Oct 2016street pressure
- 1 Jun 2016external support
- Oct 2015conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 2015external support
- May 2015conflict escalation
- Feb 2015conflict escalation
- 2015currency stress
- Sep 2014conflict escalation
- 2014election
- 27 Dec 2013street pressure
- Dec 2013conflict escalation
- 20 Aug 2013street pressure
- 1 Jun 2013external support
- Dec 2012conflict escalation
- Aug 2012conflict escalation
- Mar 2012conflict escalation
- Oct 2011conflict escalation
- Sep 2011conflict escalation
- 1 May 2011street pressure
- 1 May 2011external support
- Mar 2011conflict escalation
- Sep 2010conflict escalation
- 1 May 2010external support
- 2010election
- Oct 2009conflict escalation
- 1 May 2009external support
- 1 Jan 2009capital controls
- 31 Jul 2008street pressure
- Jul 2008conflict escalation
- 10 Oct 2007street pressure
- 13 Jun 2007street pressure
- 9 May 2007street pressure
- 1 Jan 2007displacement surge
- 9 Nov 2006street pressure
- Nov 2006conflict escalation
- 2006election
- 12 Oct 2005street pressure
- 1 May 2005external support
- 12 Oct 2004street pressure
- 14 Sep 2004street pressure
- 9 Feb 2003street pressure
- 1 Jan 2003external support
- 30 Oct 2002street pressure
- 16 Sep 2002street pressure
- 18 Feb 2002street pressure
- 2002election
- 15 May 2001street pressure
- 28 Feb 2001street pressure
- 10 Sep 2000street pressure
- 3 Aug 2000street pressure
- 16 Mar 2000street pressure
- 1 Dec 1999external support
- 14 Oct 1999street pressure
- Jul 1999conflict escalation
- 21 Apr 1999street pressure
- 24 Feb 1999street pressure
- Jan 1999conflict escalation
- 1999currency stress
- 7 Oct 1998street pressure
- 23 Sep 1998street pressure
- Aug 1998conflict escalation
- Mar 1998conflict escalation
- 1998currency stress
- 1998election
- 1 Oct 1997street pressure
- 3 Sep 1997street pressure
- 27 Aug 1997street pressure
- Jul 1997conflict escalation
- 3 Jun 1997street pressure
- Mar 1997conflict escalation
- 10 Feb 1997street pressure
- 10 Oct 1996street pressure
- Sep 1996conflict escalation
- 6 Aug 1996street pressure
- Aug 1996conflict escalation
- 27 Jul 1996street pressure
- Jan 1996conflict escalation
- Aug 1995conflict escalation
- Jan 1995conflict escalation
- Jul 1994conflict escalation
- Jan 1994conflict escalation
- 1994election
- Sep 1993conflict escalation
- Aug 1993conflict escalation
- 18 May 1993street pressure
- 6 Mar 1993street pressure
- 1 Jan 1993capital controls
- Nov 1992conflict escalation
- Oct 1992conflict escalation
- Sep 1992conflict escalation
- May 1992conflict escalation
- 23 Apr 1992street pressure
- Jan 1992conflict escalation
- 27 Nov 1991street pressure
- 17 Oct 1991street pressure
- 30 Sep 1991street pressure
- 13 Aug 1991street pressure
- 1 May 1991external support
- Jan 1991conflict escalation
- 1991currency stress
- Dec 1990conflict escalation
- Nov 1990conflict escalation
- 4 Oct 1990street pressure
- 1 Sep 1990street pressure
- Sep 1990conflict escalation
- Mar 1990conflict escalation
- 1990currency stress
- 1990election
- Nov 1989conflict escalation
- Feb 1989conflict escalation
- 1989currency stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987currency stress
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986currency stress
- 1986election
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985currency stress
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983currency stress
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982election
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980sovereign stress
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978election
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1974election
- 1974conflict escalation
- 1973conflict escalation
- 1972conflict escalation
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970election
- 1970conflict escalation
- 1969conflict escalation
- 1968conflict escalation
- 1967conflict escalation
- 1966currency stress
- 1966election
- 1966conflict escalation
- 1965conflict escalation
- 1964conflict escalation
- 1963currency stress
- 1962election
- 1958currency stress
- 1958election
- 10 May 1957leadership break
- 1957currency stress
- 13 Jun 1953leadership break
- 1951currency stress
- 1949election
- 1946election
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 89.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 68.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 71.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 70.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 81.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 74.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 63.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1963 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1964 | 67.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1967 | 66.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1968 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1969 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 65.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 65.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 66.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 65.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1981 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1984 | 72.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 84.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 81.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 75.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1994 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 87.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 89.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 88.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 89.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 89.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 88.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 89.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 88.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 79.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 80.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 70.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 69.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 63.0 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 61.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 61.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 74.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2019 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 72.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 61.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 62.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 70.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 77.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Seychelles, 2010
Details
ZAF, 1979
Published archive distance 0.1899. This similarity is not a forecast.
GHA, 2013
Published archive distance 0.19. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 1 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy49%Confirmed: 0 of 8; Sourced: 5 of 8; Inferred: 3 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics94%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 0 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events76%Confirmed: 2 of 5; Sourced: 3 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society58%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 1 of 6; Inferred: 3 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 67.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Colombia in this snapshot
Colombia (COL) records Strain pressure at 68.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 67.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Colombia has pressure score 68/100 in Strain. 32 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 8 share this score. Its competition rank is 33. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Chad (TCD), 68/100, tied; Eritrea (ERI), 68/100, tied.
Colombia's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 87.7). The lowest is 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 64.7). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 87.7 | 83.1 | 95 | 4 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 74.1 | 67.2 | 89.5 | 2 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 67.9 | 63.4 | 74.9 | 0 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 66.4 | 65.6 | 68 | 0 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 74.6 | 72 | 84.3 | 1 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 86.9 | 75.2 | 95 | 9 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 80.2 | 67.7 | 89.3 | 5 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 64.7 | 61.4 | 74.1 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 68 | 61.4 | 77 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Colombia's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1948, 1999; the minimum is 61.4 in 2015, 2022.
Every published year for Colombia, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Colombia is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 67 of 80 readings: 1946-1961, 1964-2009, 2017, 2019-2020, 2024-2025. The remaining 13 are below 65.
Colombia is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 21 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1957, 1985, 1990-1992, 1994-2003, 2005. The remaining 59 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Colombia is 2023 to 2024: Watch (62.4) to Strain (70.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Colombia records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.