LAO, 1994
Published archive distance 0.1771. This similarity is not a forecast.
BDI
Burundi
Burundi has a Strain pressure reading, in the highest quarter.
🟠 StrainThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
65 / 100
#42 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Burundi in November or December 2026: 7.4% · possible
Chance of a conflict escalation in Burundi in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Burundi, or with Burundi as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 7.4% · possible
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population14.4M14,390,003 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalGitegaGitega
Area27.8k km²27834
GDP~$3.4B (2025)~3.36 USD bn (2025, WB); comparison estimate $2.16B (2024, TradingEconomics/WB) , revision difference · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank; Trading Economics
CurrencyBIFBIF , Burundian franc (Fr)
LanguagesFrench, KirundiFrench, Kirundi
Armed forces31k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 94 (1950s); lowest 78.8 (1970s).
Details
Recorded events 63 · Country record
- Feb 2024conflict escalation
- Sep 2023conflict escalation
- 1 Jul 2023external support
- Aug 2020conflict escalation
- 2020election
- May 2018conflict escalation
- Dec 2015conflict escalation
- Oct 2015conflict escalation
- Jul 2015conflict escalation
- 2015election
- Dec 2014conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2012external support
Show all 63
- 2010election
- 6 Mar 2009street pressure
- 1 Jul 2008external support
- May 2008conflict escalation
- Apr 2008conflict escalation
- Jan 2008conflict escalation
- Sep 2007conflict escalation
- Jun 2006conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2006capital controls
- May 2005conflict escalation
- Jan 2005conflict escalation
- Sep 2004conflict escalation
- Aug 2004conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 2004external support
- Jul 2003conflict escalation
- Jul 2002conflict escalation
- Mar 2002conflict escalation
- Nov 2001conflict escalation
- Feb 2001conflict escalation
- Aug 2000conflict escalation
- Jan 2000conflict escalation
- 2000currency stress
- Sep 1999conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1999capital controls
- Jan 1999conflict escalation
- 1999currency stress
- Dec 1998conflict escalation
- Nov 1998conflict escalation
- Jan 1998conflict escalation
- 1998currency stress
- 19 Jul 1996street pressure
- Jul 1996conflict escalation
- May 1996conflict escalation
- Apr 1996conflict escalation
- 1996currency stress
- Nov 1995conflict escalation
- Oct 1995conflict escalation
- Mar 1995conflict escalation
- Oct 1994conflict escalation
- Mar 1994conflict escalation
- 27 Dec 1993street pressure
- 26 Oct 1993street pressure
- 1 Jan 1993displacement surge
- 1993election
- 1984currency stress
- 1984election
- 1982sovereign stress
- 1981election
- 1971sovereign stress
- 1965currency stress
- 1965conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 94.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 94.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1952 | 94.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1953 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1954 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1955 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1957 | 94.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 93.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1960 | 93.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1961 | 94.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1962 | 79.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1964 | 78.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 87.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 76.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 86.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1973 | 85.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1974 | 92.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1975 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 70.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 70.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 69.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1980 | 88.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 69.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1982 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 81.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 81.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 80.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 80.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 88.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 70.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 83.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 89.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2001 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2002 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2003 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2004 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2005 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2006 | 89.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2007 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 89.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2009 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 94.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2011 | 79.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 76.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 76.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2014 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2015 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2016 | 82.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2017 | 80.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2018 | 78.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 87.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2020 | 86.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2021 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2022 | 85.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2023 | 85.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2024 | 76.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2025 | 56.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Lao People's Democratic Republic, 1994
Details
SWZ, 1972
Published archive distance 0.2241. This similarity is not a forecast.
TUN, 1963
Published archive distance 0.2325. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 27 Aug 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 5 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy80%Confirmed: 4 of 8; Sourced: 4 of 8; Inferred: 0 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics79%Confirmed: 4 of 7; Sourced: 2 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events68%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 4 of 5; Inferred: 0 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information50%Confirmed: 0 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 1 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society75%Confirmed: 3 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 1 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 3The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 71.1The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Burundi in this snapshot
Burundi (BDI) records Strain pressure at 65.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is stressed; its numbered pressure band is 3. The source confidence score is 71.1.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Burundi has pressure score 65/100 in Strain. 41 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 42. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): United Kingdom (GBR), 66/100, higher by 1; Cameroon (CMR), 65/100, tied.
Burundi's highest decade mean is recorded in 1950-1959 (10 readings, mean 94). The lowest is 1970-1979 (10 readings, mean 78.8). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 89.8 | 74 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 94 | 93.9 | 94.3 | 10 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 86.8 | 78.3 | 95 | 7 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 78.8 | 69.6 | 95 | 4 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 84.5 | 69.1 | 95 | 9 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 90.9 | 70.9 | 95 | 9 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 89.7 | 74.7 | 95 | 8 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 84 | 76.2 | 95 | 6 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 79.5 | 56.1 | 86.8 | 4 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Burundi's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1968-1969, 1972, 1982, 1984, 1993-2004, 2015; the minimum is 56.1 in 2025.
Every published year for Burundi, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Burundi is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 79 of 80 readings: 1946-2024. The remaining 1 are below 65.
Burundi is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 60 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950-1961, 1963, 1966-1969, 1971-1974, 1980, 1982-1989, 1991-2006, 2008, 2010, 2014-2017, 2019-2023. The remaining 20 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Burundi is 2024 to 2025: Strain (76.5) to Watch (56.1). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Burundi records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.