ARE, 2006
Published archive distance 0.3031. This similarity is not a forecast.
MAR
Morocco
Morocco has a Calm pressure reading, in the lowest quarter.
🟢 CalmThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
23.8 / 100
#157 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Morocco in November or December 2026: 0.8% · remote
Chance of a conflict escalation in Morocco in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Morocco, or with Morocco as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 0.8% · remote
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population38.4M38,430,770 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalRabatRabat
Area446.6k km²446550
GDP$182.4B (2025)182.4 USD bn (2025, WB); comparison estimate notes ~$150bn approx (IMF DataMapper, meno preciso) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank; International Monetary Fund
CurrencyMADMAD , Moroccan dirham
LanguagesArabic, BerberArabic, Berber
Armed forces246k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 88 (1946-1949); lowest 52.1 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 42 · Country record
- 1 Apr 2025external support
- 1 Apr 2023external support
- 1 Dec 2018external support
- 1 Jul 2017street pressure
- 2017sovereign stress
- 1 Jul 2016external support
- 1 Jul 2014external support
- 1 Aug 2012external support
- 26 Jun 2011street pressure
- 2011sovereign stress
- 8 Nov 2010street pressure
- 13 Mar 2000street pressure
Show all 42
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- 1 Mar 1991external support
- 3 Feb 1991street pressure
- Nov 1989conflict escalation
- Oct 1989conflict escalation
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1 Jul 1983external support
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981currency stress
- 1981conflict escalation
- 1980conflict escalation
- 1979conflict escalation
- 1978conflict escalation
- 1977conflict escalation
- 1976conflict escalation
- 1975conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1973capital controls
- 1972sovereign stress
- 1971conflict escalation
- 1970sovereign stress
- 1956conflict escalation
- 1955conflict escalation
- 1954conflict escalation
- 1953conflict escalation
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1947 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1950 | 85.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 69.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 69.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 72.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 83.6 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1956 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 89.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1958 | 77.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1959 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1961 | 78.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1962 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 74.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 71.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1966 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1967 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1968 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 79.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1970 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1971 | 70.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1972 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 77.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 78.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 77.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 76.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 75.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1978 | 75.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1979 | 88.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 87.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 83.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 74.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1983 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 74.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1985 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1986 | 74.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1987 | 82.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1988 | 74.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1989 | 77.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1990 | 74.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1991 | 64.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1992 | 83.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 73.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1995 | 83.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 71.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1997 | 82.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 73.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1999 | 71.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2000 | 70.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 68.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 68.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 62.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2004 | 67.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 67.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2006 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 67.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 56.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2010 | 57.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2011 | 62.3 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2012 | 55.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2013 | 56.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 55.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 55.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 56.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2018 | 70.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 67.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2020 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2021 | 60.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 61.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 60.8 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2024 | 40.4 | Calm | archive reading |
| 2025 | 23.8 | Calm | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.8 | Calm | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: United Arab Emirates, 2006
Details
SLB, 2015
Published archive distance 0.3175. This similarity is not a forecast.
GBR, 1955
Published archive distance 0.3415. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy76%Confirmed: 4 of 8; Sourced: 3 of 8; Inferred: 1 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics90%Confirmed: 6 of 7; Sourced: 0 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events56%Confirmed: 1 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 2 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information87%Confirmed: 2 of 3; Sourced: 1 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society63%Confirmed: 2 of 6; Sourced: 2 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 1The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 72The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Morocco in this snapshot
Morocco (MAR) records Calm pressure at 23.8 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 72.0.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Morocco has pressure score 23.8/100 in Calm. 156 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 157. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Sao Tome and Principe (STP), 24.1/100, higher by 0.3; Fiji (FJI), 23.7/100, lower by 0.1.
Morocco's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 88). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 52.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 88 | 67.2 | 95 | 3 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 77.3 | 69.3 | 89.1 | 3 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 80.3 | 71.1 | 95 | 4 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 77.6 | 70.8 | 88.1 | 1 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 78.8 | 74.3 | 87.7 | 4 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 76.1 | 64.5 | 83.5 | 4 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 66.3 | 56.1 | 70.2 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 60.9 | 55.1 | 71.5 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 52.1 | 23.8 | 65.7 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Morocco's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1946-1948, 1965-1966; the minimum is 23.8 in 2025.
Morocco is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 78 of 80 readings: 1946-2023. The remaining 2 are below 55.
Morocco is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 65 of 80 readings: 1946-1990, 1992-2002, 2004-2008, 2017-2020. The remaining 15 are below 65.
Morocco is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 19 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1950, 1955, 1957, 1965-1968, 1979-1981, 1983, 1987, 1992-1993, 1995, 1997. The remaining 61 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Morocco is 2023 to 2024: Watch (60.8) to Calm (40.4). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Morocco records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.