CassandrIA
VUTVanuatu flag

Vanuatu

Vanuatu has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

42.6 / 100

#120 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Vanuatu in November or December 2026: 0.5% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Vanuatu in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Vanuatu, or with Vanuatu as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
0.5% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population335.2k
CapitalPort Vila
Area12.2k km²
GDP~$1.4B (2025)
CurrencyVUV
LanguagesBislama + more
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
43.75
L3 Politics
61.33
L4 Events
66.67
L5 Information
76.46
L6 Society
66.83

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 54.8 (2020-2025); lowest 19.1 (1960s; 1970s).

Details

Recorded events 4 · Country record

  • 2015sovereign stress
  • 2013sovereign stress
  • 2003sovereign stress
  • 1991sovereign stress

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Vanuatu · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194624.2Calmarchive reading
194724.2Calmarchive reading
194824.2Calmarchive reading
194919.1Calmarchive reading
195019.1Calmarchive reading
195119.1Calmarchive reading
195219.1Calmarchive reading
195319.1Calmarchive reading
195419.1Calmarchive reading
195519.1Calmarchive reading
195619.1Calmarchive reading
195721.0Calmarchive reading
195819.1Calmarchive reading
195919.1Calmarchive reading
196019.1Calmarchive reading
196119.1Calmarchive reading
196219.1Calmarchive reading
196319.1Calmarchive reading
196419.1Calmarchive reading
196519.1Calmarchive reading
196619.1Calmarchive reading
196719.1Calmarchive reading
196819.1Calmarchive reading
196919.1Calmarchive reading
197019.1Calmarchive reading
197119.1Calmarchive reading
197219.1Calmarchive reading
197319.1Calmarchive reading
197419.1Calmarchive reading
197519.1Calmarchive reading
197619.1Calmarchive reading
197719.1Calmarchive reading
197819.1Calmarchive reading
197919.1Calmarchive reading
198028.2Calmarchive reading
198128.2Calmarchive reading
198228.2Calmarchive reading
198328.2Calmarchive reading
198428.2Calmarchive reading
198528.2Calmarchive reading
198628.2Calmarchive reading
198728.7Calmarchive reading
198833.3Calmarchive reading
198927.3Calmarchive reading
199023.9Calmarchive reading
199165.1Strainarchive reading
199255.0Watcharchive reading
199355.7Watcharchive reading
199452.1Calmarchive reading
199520.2Calmarchive reading
199620.2Calmarchive reading
199720.2Calmarchive reading
199820.2Calmarchive reading
199920.7Calmarchive reading
200020.2Calmarchive reading
200120.2Calmarchive reading
200220.2Calmarchive reading
200364.3Watcharchive reading
200464.6Watcharchive reading
200564.8Watcharchive reading
200664.9Watcharchive reading
200764.6Watcharchive reading
200864.3Watcharchive reading
200920.2Calmarchive reading
201020.2Calmarchive reading
201120.2Calmarchive reading
201220.2Calmarchive reading
201364.3Watcharchive reading
201420.2Calmarchive reading
201564.2Watcharchive reading
201664.2Watcharchive reading
201764.2Watcharchive reading
201864.2Watcharchive reading
201955.4Watcharchive reading
202062.4Watcharchive reading
202156.9Watcharchive reading
202255.7Watcharchive reading
202355.7Watcharchive reading
202455.7Watcharchive reading
202542.6Calmarchive reading
Vanuatu · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202642.6Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Korea, Republic of, 2003

Details
Korea, Republic of, 2003Lithuania, 2005Italy, 1958

KOR, 2003

Published archive distance 0.1959. This similarity is not a forecast.

LTU, 2005

Published archive distance 0.2003. This similarity is not a forecast.

ITA, 1958

Published archive distance 0.2013. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 25 Sep 2026, 1 field.

Details
Country change history for Vanuatu
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-170Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-251Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-270Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-144Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy70%
L3 Politics60%
L4 Events50%
L5 Information40%
L6 Society68%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 60.6

Vanuatu in this snapshot

Vanuatu (VUT) records Calm pressure at 42.6 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 60.6.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Vanuatu has pressure score 42.6/100 in Calm. 119 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 1 share this score. Its competition rank is 120. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Viet Nam (VNM), 44/100, higher by 1.4; Canada (CAN), 42/100, lower by 0.6.

Vanuatu's highest decade mean is recorded in 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 54.8). The lowest is 1960-1969 (10 readings, mean 19.1); 1970-1979 (10 readings, mean 19.1). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Vanuatu: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949422.919.124.20
1950-19591019.319.1210
1960-19691019.119.119.10
1970-19791019.119.119.10
1980-19891028.727.333.30
1990-19991035.320.265.10
2000-20091046.820.264.90
2010-20191045.720.264.30
2020-2025654.842.662.40

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Vanuatu's mapped-score peak is 65.1 in 1991; the minimum is 19.1 in 1949-1956, 1958-1979.

Vanuatu is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 20 of 80 readings: 1991-1993, 2003-2008, 2013, 2015-2024. The remaining 60 are below 55.

Vanuatu is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 1 of 80 readings: 1991. The remaining 79 are below 65.

Vanuatu never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Vanuatu is 2024 to 2025: Watch (55.7) to Calm (42.6). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Vanuatu records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts