CassandrIA
PNGPapua New Guinea flag

Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟡 Watch

56 / 100

#70 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Papua New Guinea in November or December 2026: 6.4% · possible

Chance of a conflict escalation in Papua New Guinea in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Papua New Guinea, or with Papua New Guinea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
6.4% · possible
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population10.8M
CapitalPort Moresby
Area462.8k km²
GDP$32.5B (2025)
CurrencyPGK
LanguagesEnglish + more
Armed forces4k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
63.75
L3 Politics
64.5
L4 Events
73
L5 Information
74.1
L6 Society
63.83

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 59.8 (2010s); lowest 45 (2000s).

Details

Recorded events 17 · Country record

  • Jul 2023conflict escalation
  • 1 Mar 2023external support
  • Oct 2022conflict escalation
  • Apr 2021conflict escalation
  • 1 Jan 2018capital controls
  • 1 Jan 2016capital controls
  • 2013sovereign stress
  • 2008sovereign stress
  • 2002sovereign stress
  • 1 Mar 2000external support
  • Mar 1999conflict escalation
  • Jan 1998conflict escalation
Show all 17
  • 1998sovereign stress
  • 1 Jan 1996capital controls
  • 1996sovereign stress
  • 1 Jul 1995external support
  • Feb 1990conflict escalation

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Papua New Guinea · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194662.1Watcharchive reading
194762.1Watcharchive reading
194862.1Watcharchive reading
194950.0Calmarchive reading
195050.0Calmarchive reading
195150.0Calmarchive reading
195250.0Calmarchive reading
195350.0Calmarchive reading
195450.0Calmarchive reading
195550.0Calmarchive reading
195650.0Calmarchive reading
195750.0Calmarchive reading
195850.0Calmarchive reading
195950.0Calmarchive reading
196050.0Calmarchive reading
196150.0Calmarchive reading
196250.0Calmarchive reading
196350.0Calmarchive reading
196450.0Calmarchive reading
196550.0Calmarchive reading
196650.0Calmarchive reading
196750.8Calmarchive reading
196850.0Calmarchive reading
196950.0Calmarchive reading
197050.0Calmarchive reading
197150.0Calmarchive reading
197250.0Calmarchive reading
197350.0Calmarchive reading
197450.0Calmarchive reading
197561.5Watcharchive reading
197660.0Watcharchive reading
197758.8Watcharchive reading
197858.8Watcharchive reading
197958.0Watcharchive reading
198057.1Watcharchive reading
198156.6Watcharchive reading
198256.1Watcharchive reading
198355.5Watcharchive reading
198455.2Watcharchive reading
198554.3Calmarchive reading
198653.1Calmarchive reading
198754.4Calmarchive reading
198855.2Watcharchive reading
198938.2Calmarchive reading
199064.5Watcharchive reading
199147.3Calmarchive reading
199263.1Watcharchive reading
199363.2Watcharchive reading
199463.2Watcharchive reading
199562.8Watcharchive reading
199673.2Strainarchive reading
199742.9Calmarchive reading
199860.5Watcharchive reading
199936.8Calmarchive reading
200031.1Calmarchive reading
200148.0Calmarchive reading
200259.5Watcharchive reading
200336.2Calmarchive reading
200436.1Calmarchive reading
200544.7Calmarchive reading
200635.3Calmarchive reading
200741.1Calmarchive reading
200867.9Strainarchive reading
200950.0Calmarchive reading
201051.7Calmarchive reading
201136.4Calmarchive reading
201237.7Calmarchive reading
201366.1Strainarchive reading
201468.1Strainarchive reading
201565.3Strainarchive reading
201671.1Strainarchive reading
201770.9Strainarchive reading
201868.1Strainarchive reading
201962.9Watcharchive reading
202073.4Strainarchive reading
202163.7Watcharchive reading
202264.4Watcharchive reading
202355.3Watcharchive reading
202456.8Watcharchive reading
202527.5Calmarchive reading
Papua New Guinea · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202656.0Watcharchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Costa Rica, 2006

Details
Costa Rica, 2006Seychelles, 2015Botswana, 2008

CRI, 2006

Published archive distance 0.288. This similarity is not a forecast.

SYC, 2015

Published archive distance 0.2942. This similarity is not a forecast.

BWA, 2008

Published archive distance 0.3019. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Papua New Guinea
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-060Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-273Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-141Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-020Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z2Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy80%
L3 Politics73%
L4 Events70%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society87%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 2Confidence 74.3

Papua New Guinea in this snapshot

Papua New Guinea (PNG) records Watch pressure at 56.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 74.3.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Papua New Guinea has pressure score 56/100 in Watch. 69 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 3 share this score. Its competition rank is 70. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): India (IND), 56/100, tied; Taiwan, Province of China (TWN), 56/100, tied.

Papua New Guinea's highest decade mean is recorded in 2010-2019 (10 readings, mean 59.8). The lowest is 2000-2009 (10 readings, mean 45). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Papua New Guinea: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949459.15062.10
1950-1959105050500
1960-19691050.15050.80
1970-19791054.75061.50
1980-19891053.638.257.10
1990-19991057.836.873.20
2000-2009104531.167.90
2010-20191059.836.471.10
2020-2025656.927.573.40

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Papua New Guinea's mapped-score peak is 73.4 in 2020; the minimum is 27.5 in 2025.

Papua New Guinea is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 35 of 80 readings: 1946-1948, 1975-1984, 1988, 1990, 1992-1996, 1998, 2002, 2008, 2013-2024. The remaining 45 are below 55.

Papua New Guinea is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 9 of 80 readings: 1996, 2008, 2013-2018, 2020. The remaining 71 are below 65.

Papua New Guinea never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Papua New Guinea is 2024 to 2025: Watch (56.8) to Calm (27.5). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Papua New Guinea records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

CassandrIA A free public observatory of country pressure
MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts