RUS, 2012
Published archive distance 0.1097. This similarity is not a forecast.
PER
Peru
Peru has a Watch pressure reading, in the middle half.
🟡 WatchThe colour shows the pressure range for this score.
55 / 100
#73 of 206Chance of a conflict escalation in Peru in November or December 2026: 3.6% · unlikely
Chance of a conflict escalation in Peru in November or December 2026
Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026
- What counts
- In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Peru, or with Peru as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
- Months measured
- the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
- Decided by
- UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
- Resolution convention
- For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
- Published
- 25 Oct 2026
- Our estimate
- 3.6% · unlikely
- If data are unavailable
- If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.
Earlier issues in the forecast record
Population34.6M34,576,665 · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CapitalLimaLima
Area1.3M km²1285216
GDP$334.9B (2025)$334.9bn (WB 2025) · Year 2025 · Source: World Bank, 2025
CurrencyPENPEN , Peruvian sol (S/.)
LanguagesAymara + moreAymara, Quechua, Spanish
Armed forces158k (2020)Armed forces personnel, total, 2020 · The World Bank, World Development Indicators: The Military Balance, IISS · CC BY 4.0
L1 IdentityIdentity is descriptive (name, capital, population). It has no pressure reading by design.
n/a · identity, no pressure reading L2 EconomyPressure linked to the economy and its resources.
L3 PoliticsPressure linked to political power and public institutions.
L4 EventsPressure linked to events that affect the country.
L5 InformationPressure linked to how information reaches the public.
L6 SocietyPressure linked to social conditions and everyday life.
Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.Numeric fields use fixed thresholds on the country pressure scale. Text fields use a documented rubric with two independent readings. These readings describe the snapshot; they are not forecasts.
Since 1946
Highest decade mean 91.7 (1990s); lowest 60.9 (2020-2025).
Details
Recorded events 116 · Country record
- 17 Feb 2026leadership break
- 14 Jan 2023state of emergency
- 14 Dec 2022state of emergency
- 7 Dec 2022street pressure
- 1 May 2022external support
- 2021election
- 1 May 2020external support
- 13 Aug 2016street pressure
- 2016election
- 14 Mar 2012street pressure
- 14 May 2011street pressure
- 22 Feb 2011street pressure
Show all 116
- 2011election
- 4 Apr 2010street pressure
- 11 Jul 2009street pressure
- 11 Aug 2008street pressure
- 16 Jun 2008street pressure
- 5 Nov 2007street pressure
- 29 Oct 2007street pressure
- 30 Apr 2007street pressure
- 1 Jan 2007external support
- 2006election
- 1 Mar 2005street pressure
- 21 Jun 2004street pressure
- 1 Jun 2004external support
- 20 Apr 2004street pressure
- 3 Jun 2003street pressure
- 12 May 2003street pressure
- 19 Jun 2002street pressure
- 1 Feb 2002external support
- 1 Mar 2001external support
- 2001election
- 27 Jul 2000street pressure
- 28 May 2000street pressure
- 12 Apr 2000street pressure
- 2000election
- 14 Oct 1999street pressure
- 1 Jun 1999external support
- 28 Dec 1998street pressure
- 18 Sep 1998street pressure
- Jan 1997conflict escalation
- 1 Jul 1996external support
- 25 Jan 1996street pressure
- 1 Jan 1996capital controls
- Dec 1995conflict escalation
- Jul 1995conflict escalation
- 1995election
- Sep 1994conflict escalation
- Apr 1994conflict escalation
- Aug 1993conflict escalation
- May 1993conflict escalation
- 1 Mar 1993external support
- Jan 1993conflict escalation
- 1993currency stress
- 18 Mar 1992street pressure
- Jan 1992conflict escalation
- 1992currency stress
- 28 Nov 1991street pressure
- Aug 1991conflict escalation
- Jun 1991conflict escalation
- 7 May 1991street pressure
- May 1991conflict escalation
- 28 Feb 1991street pressure
- 24 Jan 1991street pressure
- 1991currency stress
- 15 Oct 1990street pressure
- Sep 1990conflict escalation
- Apr 1990conflict escalation
- 1990currency stress
- 1990election
- Oct 1989conflict escalation
- 1989currency stress
- 1988currency stress
- 1988conflict escalation
- 1987currency stress
- 1987conflict escalation
- 1986currency stress
- 1986conflict escalation
- 1 Jun 1985external support
- 1985currency stress
- 1985election
- 1985conflict escalation
- 1 Jan 1984capital controls
- 1984currency stress
- 1984conflict escalation
- 1983currency stress
- 1983conflict escalation
- 1982currency stress
- 1982conflict escalation
- 1981currency stress
- 1980currency stress
- 1980election
- 1979currency stress
- 1 Dec 1978external support
- 1978currency stress
- 1978sovereign stress
- 1978election
- 1 Jun 1977external support
- 1977currency stress
- 1 Feb 1976external support
- 1976currency stress
- 1976sovereign stress
- 29 Aug 1975leadership break
- 3 Oct 1968leadership break
- 1968currency stress
- 1968sovereign stress
- 1965conflict escalation
- 3 Mar 1963leadership break
- 1963election
- 19 Jul 1962leadership break
- 1962election
- 1958currency stress
- 1956election
- 1953currency stress
- 1950election
- 28 Oct 1948leadership break
public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.
| Year | Mapped historical score | Historical band | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1947 | 79.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1948 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1949 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1950 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1951 | 75.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1952 | 73.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1953 | 72.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1954 | 71.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1955 | 70.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1956 | 74.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1957 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1958 | 84.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1959 | 65.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1960 | 64.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1961 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1962 | 72.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1963 | 71.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1964 | 66.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1965 | 69.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1966 | 63.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1967 | 63.4 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1968 | 90.9 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1969 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1970 | 94.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1971 | 81.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1972 | 67.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1973 | 67.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1974 | 66.5 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1975 | 65.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1976 | 78.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1977 | 64.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 1978 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1979 | 83.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1980 | 84.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1981 | 81.4 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1982 | 89.8 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1983 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1984 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1985 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1986 | 80.2 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1987 | 79.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 1988 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1989 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1990 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1991 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1992 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1993 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1994 | 95.0 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1995 | 86.3 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1996 | 85.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1997 | 87.1 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1998 | 94.7 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 1999 | 88.5 | Crisis | archive reading |
| 2000 | 75.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2001 | 67.2 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2002 | 68.9 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2003 | 66.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2004 | 67.3 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2005 | 64.2 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2006 | 65.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2007 | 77.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2008 | 79.7 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2009 | 76.6 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2010 | 76.1 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2011 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2012 | 76.8 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2013 | 61.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2014 | 63.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2015 | 61.6 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2016 | 62.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2017 | 62.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2018 | 67.0 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2019 | 58.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2020 | 59.1 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2021 | 60.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2022 | 62.7 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2023 | 65.4 | Strain | archive reading |
| 2024 | 61.9 | Watch | archive reading |
| 2025 | 55.5 | Watch | archive reading |
| Snapshot year | Score on the separate 2026 scale | Independent archived crisis category | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.0 | Watch | archive reading |
Pressure points
Details
Years like now
3 similar years · Closest: Russian Federation, 2012
Details
MEX, 2004
Published archive distance 0.1169. This similarity is not a forecast.
USA, 2011
Published archive distance 0.1182. This similarity is not a forecast.
Last cyclesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Last change: 6 Oct 2026, 1 field.
Details
| Cycle | Date | Fields changed | Layer distance from baseline | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| date unavailable | 2026-10-28 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-17 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 2026-10-06 | 1 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-25 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-27 | 2 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 1 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-14 | 3 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 1 · Information: 0 · Society: 1 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 2026-08-02 | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-29T13:40:26Z | 4 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Reconstructed from archived cycle files |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 2026-07-10T00:30:00Z | 0 | Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0 | Original public record |
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data noticesA dated measurement used to compare country readings over time.
Technical detail
Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).
Record supportHow well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.
L1 Identity60%Confirmed: 0 of 6; Sourced: 6 of 6; Inferred: 0 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
L2 Economy71%Confirmed: 3 of 8; Sourced: 4 of 8; Inferred: 1 of 8; Unknown: 0 of 8
L3 Politics84%Confirmed: 5 of 7; Sourced: 1 of 7; Inferred: 1 of 7; Unknown: 0 of 7
L4 Events70%Confirmed: 2 of 5; Sourced: 2 of 5; Inferred: 1 of 5; Unknown: 0 of 5
L5 Information73%Confirmed: 1 of 3; Sourced: 2 of 3; Inferred: 0 of 3; Unknown: 0 of 3
L6 Society57%Confirmed: 1 of 6; Sourced: 3 of 6; Inferred: 2 of 6; Unknown: 0 of 6
Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026
Phase 2The pressure band expressed as a number from 1 to 4.Confidence 69.4The source confidence score for this reading; it is not a prediction probability.
Peru in this snapshot
Peru (PER) records Watch pressure at 55.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.
The recorded country pattern is drifting; its numbered pressure band is 2. The source confidence score is 69.4.
Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.
5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.
Peru has pressure score 55/100 in Watch. 72 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 18 share this score. Its competition rank is 73. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.
Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Moldova, Republic of (MDA), 55/100, tied; Puerto Rico (PRI), 55/100, tied.
Peru's highest decade mean is recorded in 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 91.7). The lowest is 2020-2025 (6 readings, mean 60.9). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.
| Observed years | Readings | Mean | Minimum | Maximum | At or above 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-1949 | 4 | 87.3 | 79.5 | 95 | 2 |
| 1950-1959 | 10 | 74.9 | 65.2 | 95 | 2 |
| 1960-1969 | 10 | 72.1 | 63.4 | 95 | 2 |
| 1970-1979 | 10 | 76.4 | 64.6 | 95 | 4 |
| 1980-1989 | 10 | 89 | 79.8 | 95 | 9 |
| 1990-1999 | 10 | 91.7 | 85.7 | 95 | 10 |
| 2000-2009 | 10 | 70.8 | 64.2 | 79.7 | 0 |
| 2010-2019 | 10 | 65.8 | 58.9 | 76.8 | 0 |
| 2020-2025 | 6 | 60.9 | 55.5 | 65.4 | 0 |
Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Peru's mapped-score peak is 95 in 1948-1950, 1969, 1978, 1983-1985, 1988-1994; the minimum is 55.5 in 2025.
Every published year for Peru, 1946-2025, is at or above the historical threshold 55: 80 of 80 readings.
Peru is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 63 of 80 readings: 1946-1959, 1962-1965, 1968-1976, 1978-2004, 2006-2012, 2018, 2023. The remaining 17 are below 65.
Peru is at or above the historical threshold 80 in 29 of 80 readings: 1948-1950, 1958, 1968-1971, 1978-1986, 1988-1999. The remaining 51 are below 80.
The latest observed annual historical-band change for Peru is 2023 to 2024: Strain (65.4) to Watch (61.9). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.
Peru records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.
Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.