Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Afghanistan, or with Afghanistan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Angola, or with Angola as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Albania, or with Albania as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Andorra, or with Andorra as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the United Arab Emirates, or with the United Arab Emirates as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Argentina, or with Argentina as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Armenia, or with Armenia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Antigua and Barbuda, or with Antigua and Barbuda as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Australia, or with Australia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Austria, or with Austria as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Azerbaijan, or with Azerbaijan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Burundi, or with Burundi as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Belgium, or with Belgium as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Benin, or with Benin as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Burkina Faso, or with Burkina Faso as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Bangladesh, or with Bangladesh as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Bulgaria, or with Bulgaria as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Bahrain, or with Bahrain as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Bahamas, or with the Bahamas as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, or with Bosnia and Herzegovina as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Belarus, or with Belarus as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Belize, or with Belize as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Bermuda, or with Bermuda as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Bolivia, or with Bolivia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Brazil, or with Brazil as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Barbados, or with Barbados as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Brunei, or with Brunei as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Bhutan, or with Bhutan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Botswana, or with Botswana as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Central African Republic, or with the Central African Republic as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Canada, or with Canada as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Switzerland, or with Switzerland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Chile, or with Chile as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of China, or with China as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Côte d'Ivoire, or with Côte d'Ivoire as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Cameroon, or with Cameroon as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, or with the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Republic of the Congo, or with the Republic of the Congo as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Colombia, or with Colombia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Comoros, or with the Comoros as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Cabo Verde, or with Cabo Verde as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Costa Rica, or with Costa Rica as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Cuba, or with Cuba as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Cayman Islands, or with the Cayman Islands as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Cyprus, or with Cyprus as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Czechia, or with Czechia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Germany, or with Germany as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Djibouti, or with Djibouti as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Dominica, or with Dominica as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Denmark, or with Denmark as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Dominican Republic, or with the Dominican Republic as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Algeria, or with Algeria as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ecuador, or with Ecuador as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Egypt, or with Egypt as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Eritrea, or with Eritrea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Western Sahara, or with Western Sahara as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Spain, or with Spain as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Estonia, or with Estonia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ethiopia, or with Ethiopia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Finland, or with Finland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Fiji, or with Fiji as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of France, or with France as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Micronesia, or with Micronesia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Gabon, or with Gabon as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the United Kingdom, or with the United Kingdom as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Georgia, or with Georgia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ghana, or with Ghana as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Gibraltar, or with Gibraltar as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Guinea, or with Guinea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Gambia, or with the Gambia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Guinea-Bissau, or with Guinea-Bissau as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Equatorial Guinea, or with Equatorial Guinea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Greece, or with Greece as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Grenada, or with Grenada as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Greenland, or with Greenland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Guatemala, or with Guatemala as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Guyana, or with Guyana as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Hong Kong, or with Hong Kong as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Honduras, or with Honduras as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Croatia, or with Croatia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Haiti, or with Haiti as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Hungary, or with Hungary as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Indonesia, or with Indonesia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of India, or with India as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ireland, or with Ireland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Iran, or with Iran as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Iraq, or with Iraq as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Iceland, or with Iceland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Israel, or with Israel as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Italy, or with Italy as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Jamaica, or with Jamaica as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Jordan, or with Jordan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Japan, or with Japan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Kazakhstan, or with Kazakhstan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Kenya, or with Kenya as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Kyrgyzstan, or with Kyrgyzstan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Cambodia, or with Cambodia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Kiribati, or with Kiribati as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of St Kitts and Nevis, or with St Kitts and Nevis as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of South Korea, or with South Korea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Kuwait, or with Kuwait as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Laos, or with Laos as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Lebanon, or with Lebanon as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Liberia, or with Liberia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Libya, or with Libya as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of St Lucia, or with St Lucia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Liechtenstein, or with Liechtenstein as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Sri Lanka, or with Sri Lanka as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Lesotho, or with Lesotho as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Lithuania, or with Lithuania as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Luxembourg, or with Luxembourg as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Latvia, or with Latvia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Macao, or with Macao as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Morocco, or with Morocco as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Monaco, or with Monaco as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Moldova, or with Moldova as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Madagascar, or with Madagascar as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Maldives, or with the Maldives as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Mexico, or with Mexico as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Marshall Islands, or with the Marshall Islands as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of North Macedonia, or with North Macedonia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Mali, or with Mali as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Malta, or with Malta as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Myanmar, or with Myanmar as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Montenegro, or with Montenegro as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Mongolia, or with Mongolia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Mozambique, or with Mozambique as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Mauritania, or with Mauritania as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Mauritius, or with Mauritius as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Malawi, or with Malawi as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Malaysia, or with Malaysia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Namibia, or with Namibia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of New Caledonia, or with New Caledonia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Niger, or with Niger as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Nigeria, or with Nigeria as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Nicaragua, or with Nicaragua as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Netherlands, or with the Netherlands as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Norway, or with Norway as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Nepal, or with Nepal as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Nauru, or with Nauru as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of New Zealand, or with New Zealand as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Oman, or with Oman as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Pakistan, or with Pakistan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Panama, or with Panama as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Peru, or with Peru as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Philippines, or with the Philippines as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Palau, or with Palau as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Papua New Guinea, or with Papua New Guinea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Poland, or with Poland as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Puerto Rico, or with Puerto Rico as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of North Korea, or with North Korea as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Portugal, or with Portugal as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Paraguay, or with Paraguay as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Palestine, or with Palestine as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Qatar, or with Qatar as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Romania, or with Romania as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Russia, or with Russia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Rwanda, or with Rwanda as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Saudi Arabia, or with Saudi Arabia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Sudan, or with Sudan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Senegal, or with Senegal as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Singapore, or with Singapore as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Solomon Islands, or with the Solomon Islands as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Sierra Leone, or with Sierra Leone as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of El Salvador, or with El Salvador as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of San Marino, or with San Marino as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Somalia, or with Somalia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Serbia, or with Serbia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of South Sudan, or with South Sudan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of São Tomé and Príncipe, or with São Tomé and Príncipe as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Suriname, or with Suriname as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Slovakia, or with Slovakia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Slovenia, or with Slovenia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Sweden, or with Sweden as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Eswatini, or with Eswatini as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the Seychelles, or with the Seychelles as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Syria, or with Syria as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Chad, or with Chad as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Togo, or with Togo as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Thailand, or with Thailand as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Tajikistan, or with Tajikistan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Turkmenistan, or with Turkmenistan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Timor-Leste, or with Timor-Leste as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Tonga, or with Tonga as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Trinidad and Tobago, or with Trinidad and Tobago as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Tunisia, or with Tunisia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Türkiye, or with Türkiye as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Tuvalu, or with Tuvalu as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Taiwan, or with Taiwan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Tanzania, or with Tanzania as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Uganda, or with Uganda as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Ukraine, or with Ukraine as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Kosovo, or with Kosovo as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Uruguay, or with Uruguay as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of the United States, or with the United States as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Uzbekistan, or with Uzbekistan as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Vatican City, or with Vatican City as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of St Vincent and the Grenadines, or with St Vincent and the Grenadines as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Venezuela, or with Venezuela as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Vietnam, or with Vietnam as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Vanuatu, or with Vanuatu as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Samoa, or with Samoa as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Yemen, or with Yemen as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

16% · possible

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of South Africa, or with South Africa as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

24% · real chance

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Zambia, or with Zambia as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts

In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Zimbabwe, or with Zimbabwe as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.

Months measured

the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.

Decided by

UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.

Resolution convention

For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.

Published

24 Oct 2026

Our estimate

0.8% · remote

If data are unavailable

If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.