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Portugal

Portugal has a Calm pressure reading, in the middle half.

🟢 Calm

26 / 100

#152 of 206

Chance of a conflict escalation in Portugal in November or December 2026: <0.1% · remote

Chance of a conflict escalation in Portugal in November or December 2026

Government attribution notice published 26 October 2026

What counts
In November or December 2026, organised violence on the territory of Portugal, or with Portugal as an active party, must cause at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar month and at least twice the monthly average of the preceding three months. A conflict continuing at a steady high intensity does not meet this escalation threshold.
Months measured
the whole of November 2026 and the whole of December 2026.
Decided by
UCDP Candidate Events data (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), best estimate of battle-related deaths, monthly release. The question will be resolved by 5 Feb 2027 if the required UCDP data are available.
Resolution convention
For records spanning calendar months, deaths are allocated in proportion to inclusive calendar days. Events not assigned to a territory under the frozen UCDP place table are excluded from both the target month's total and the average of its preceding three months. Active party means the country's government is coded as a side by UCDP. Certain active-party attribution is retained, and each event is counted once per country.
Published
25 Oct 2026
Our estimate
<0.1% · remote
If data are unavailable
If the required UCDP data are unavailable by 5 Feb 2027, the question is recorded as Unresolved.

Earlier issues in the forecast record

22 Oct 2026 · October or November 2026

24 Oct 2026 · November or December 2026

Population10.8M
CapitalLisbon
Area92.1k km²
GDP$346.6B (2025)
CurrencyEUR
LanguagesPortuguese
Armed forces52k (2020)
L1 Identity
n/a · identity, no pressure reading
L2 Economy
26.9
L3 Politics
35.25
L4 Events
36.7
L5 Information
26.94
L6 Society
47

Layer readings: method v1.1, from each layer's documented record, same 0-100 scale as country score. Snapshot 28 Oct 2026.

Since 1946

Highest decade mean 71.2 (1946-1949); lowest 30.5 (1990s).

Details

Recorded events 28 · Country record

  • 2021election
  • 2016election
  • 25 Apr 2013street pressure
  • 2013sovereign stress
  • 14 Nov 2012street pressure
  • 15 Sep 2012street pressure
  • 11 Feb 2012street pressure
  • 1 May 2011external support
  • 12 Mar 2011street pressure
  • 2011election
  • 3 Mar 2007street pressure
  • 2006election
Show all 28
  • 2001election
  • 1996election
  • 1991election
  • 1986election
  • 1984currency stress
  • 1983currency stress
  • 1982currency stress
  • 1981currency stress
  • 1980election
  • 1 May 1977external support
  • 1977currency stress
  • 1976election
  • 1975election
  • 1958election
  • 1951election
  • 1949election

public country snapshot archive, frozen 10 July 2026. The chart shows mapped historical scores through 2025, with bands at 55, 65 and 80. The 2026 snapshot uses a separate score scale. Its archived crisis category is independent of that number. No numerical change from 2025 to 2026 is implied.

Portugal · historical scale through 2025
YearMapped historical scoreHistorical bandRecord
194673.0Strainarchive reading
194772.4Strainarchive reading
194872.3Strainarchive reading
194966.9Strainarchive reading
195066.8Strainarchive reading
195159.1Watcharchive reading
195259.0Watcharchive reading
195358.8Watcharchive reading
195458.7Watcharchive reading
195558.5Watcharchive reading
195658.5Watcharchive reading
195758.3Watcharchive reading
195867.5Strainarchive reading
195967.2Strainarchive reading
196067.2Strainarchive reading
196167.0Strainarchive reading
196266.8Strainarchive reading
196366.5Strainarchive reading
196466.3Strainarchive reading
196565.9Strainarchive reading
196666.2Strainarchive reading
196765.8Strainarchive reading
196858.9Watcharchive reading
196956.2Watcharchive reading
197055.9Watcharchive reading
197155.7Watcharchive reading
197255.5Watcharchive reading
197355.1Watcharchive reading
197455.6Watcharchive reading
197563.9Watcharchive reading
197655.6Watcharchive reading
197754.4Calmarchive reading
197851.6Calmarchive reading
197948.8Calmarchive reading
198046.5Calmarchive reading
198144.6Calmarchive reading
198242.9Calmarchive reading
198359.5Watcharchive reading
198459.4Watcharchive reading
198540.5Calmarchive reading
198639.2Calmarchive reading
198736.7Calmarchive reading
198834.2Calmarchive reading
198932.1Calmarchive reading
199030.3Calmarchive reading
199130.3Calmarchive reading
199229.0Calmarchive reading
199356.6Watcharchive reading
199426.5Calmarchive reading
199531.4Calmarchive reading
199625.6Calmarchive reading
199725.3Calmarchive reading
199825.0Calmarchive reading
199924.9Calmarchive reading
200024.8Calmarchive reading
200124.2Calmarchive reading
200224.0Calmarchive reading
200355.6Watcharchive reading
200423.5Calmarchive reading
200523.4Calmarchive reading
200623.2Calmarchive reading
200723.0Calmarchive reading
200839.0Calmarchive reading
200955.3Watcharchive reading
201027.9Calmarchive reading
201155.5Watcharchive reading
201256.7Watcharchive reading
201363.8Watcharchive reading
201422.0Calmarchive reading
201521.7Calmarchive reading
201622.4Calmarchive reading
201722.2Calmarchive reading
201822.1Calmarchive reading
201916.5Calmarchive reading
202054.2Calmarchive reading
202125.9Calmarchive reading
202233.2Calmarchive reading
202328.7Calmarchive reading
202433.0Calmarchive reading
202526.0Calmarchive reading
Portugal · 2026 snapshot, frozen 10 July 2026
Snapshot yearScore on the separate 2026 scaleIndependent archived crisis categoryRecord
202626.0Calmarchive reading

Years like now

3 similar years · Closest: Luxembourg, 1987

Details
Luxembourg, 1987Germany, 1981Italy, 1981

LUX, 1987

Published archive distance 0.2232. This similarity is not a forecast.

DEU, 1981

Published archive distance 0.2312. This similarity is not a forecast.

ITA, 1981

Published archive distance 0.2324. This similarity is not a forecast.

Last cycles

Last change: 17 Oct 2026, 2 fields.

Details
Country change history for Portugal
CycleDateFields changedLayer distance from baselineRecord
date unavailable2026-10-280Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
17 Oct 20262026-10-172Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
6 Oct 20262026-10-061Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 1 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
25 Sep 20262026-09-250Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
14 Sep 20262026-09-140Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
4 Sep 20262026-09-040Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
27 Aug 20262026-08-271Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
14 Aug 20262026-08-144Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 2 · Information: 1 · Society: 1Reconstructed from archived cycle files
2 Aug 20262026-08-021Identity: 0 · Economy: 1 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
29 Jul 20262026-07-29T13:40:26Z2Identity: 0 · Economy: 2 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Reconstructed from archived cycle files
10 Jul 20262026-07-10T00:30:00Z0Identity: 0 · Economy: 0 · Politics: 0 · Events: 0 · Information: 0 · Society: 0Original public record
🟢 Calm <55🟡 Watch 55-<65🟠 Strain 65-<80🔴 Crisis 80-100

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026 · Public country snapshot · Data notices

Technical detail

Field sources carry their own dates (shown in each detail).

Record support

How well documented each layer of this country's record is (share of confirmed and sourced fields). Not a pressure reading.

L1 Identity60%
L2 Economy49%
L3 Politics84%
L4 Events56%
L5 Information73%
L6 Society63%

Source: Hendeka record audit, snapshot 28 Oct 2026

Phase 1Confidence 63.4

Portugal in this snapshot

Portugal (PRT) records Calm pressure at 26.0 of 100 and touches 0 mapped pressure points.

The recorded country pattern is stable; its numbered pressure band is 1. The source confidence score is 63.4.

Snapshot 28 Oct 2026. Dataset published 2026-11-05T08:17:49Z. Source: public country snapshot public country index.

5 public layer readings; 0 mapped pressure points in this dated snapshot; 11 country change records; 81 archive readings. Identity is descriptive; absent readings are named beside each layer.

Portugal has pressure score 26/100 in Calm. 151 of 206 public Atlas entries have a higher score; 2 share this score. Its competition rank is 152. This is the published snapshot, not the mapped historical scale.

Adjacent entries in score-descending order (ties by case-folded name, then ISO3): Norway (NOR), 26/100, tied; Hungary (HUN), 25.7/100, lower by 0.3.

Portugal's highest decade mean is recorded in 1946-1949 (4 readings, mean 71.2). The lowest is 1990-1999 (10 readings, mean 30.5). Calendar decades use available years only; edge decades are partial. These means are calculated from published mapped scores, not the latest pressure scores.

Portugal: published archive aggregates by calendar decade
Observed yearsReadingsMeanMinimumMaximumAt or above 80
1946-1949471.266.9730
1950-19591061.258.367.50
1960-19691064.756.267.20
1970-19791055.248.863.90
1980-19891043.632.159.50
1990-19991030.524.956.60
2000-20091031.62355.60
2010-20191033.116.563.80
2020-2025633.525.954.20

Across 80 annual readings (1946-2025), Portugal's mapped-score peak is 73 in 1946; the minimum is 16.5 in 2019.

Portugal is at or above the historical threshold 55 in 39 of 80 readings: 1946-1976, 1983-1984, 1993, 2003, 2009, 2011-2013. The remaining 41 are below 55.

Portugal is at or above the historical threshold 65 in 15 of 80 readings: 1946-1950, 1958-1967. The remaining 65 are below 65.

Portugal never reaches the historical threshold 80 in the 80 published annual readings.

The latest observed annual historical-band change for Portugal is 2013 to 2014: Watch (63.8) to Calm (22). This compares annual historical readings; it does not describe a change between published country snapshots.

Portugal records no changed fields against the previous measured cycle at date unavailable (2026-10-28); previous cycle: 17 Oct 2026. Layer counts are distances from baseline, not cycle-change components.

Pressure point readings and their own snapshot date are shown in Pressure points.

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MethodSupport

CassandrIA, country pressure and conflict escalation forecasts