Storm country
Geopolitics
Registered question: Which country is heading into the storm this month?
Standing questions
Forty-five standing questions
These forty-five questions are monitored daily. Each registered question keeps its identifier and category. They are not forecasts or certified outcomes.
Register published .
End of the war in Ukraine
Named events
Registered question: When does the war in Ukraine end, and how?
Iran's course
Geopolitics
Registered question: Where is Iran heading: a deal, an escalation or an internal rupture?
China and Taiwan
Geopolitics
Registered question: Does pressure around Taiwan turn into a blockade or a strike?
Russia and the West
Geopolitics
Registered question: Does the standoff between Russia and the West harden or thaw?
Middle East
Geopolitics
Registered question: Does the Middle East widen into a regional war or move toward a ceasefire?
Instability in Africa
Geopolitics
Registered question: Which African state faces a coup, a collapse or a famine next?
Sanctions cascade
Geopolitics
Registered question: Who is hit next by sanctions, and who feels the knock-on effect?
Fed rate cut
Finance
Registered question: Does the Federal Reserve cut rates, and when?
US recession
Finance
Registered question: Does the United States enter a recession within the year?
Bitcoin price
Finance
Registered question: Where does the price of bitcoin stand at the next checkpoint?
Calm exchanges
Finance
Registered question: Do stock exchanges stay calm, or does volatility return?
Euro and dollar
Finance
Registered question: Which way does the euro move against the dollar?
Inflation
Finance
Registered question: Does inflation cool, hold or return?
Oil price
Finance
Registered question: Where does the oil price settle, and what moves it?
Champions League
Named events
Registered question: Who wins the Champions League?
World Cup
Named events
Registered question: Who wins the football World Cup?
Nobel prizes
Named events
Registered question: Who wins the Nobel prizes, and which fields are rewarded?
AGI in 2026
AI and technology
Registered question: Does anyone credibly claim general artificial intelligence in 2026?
Next frontier model
AI and technology
Registered question: When does the next frontier model arrive, and what does it change?
Cyber war
Cyber
Registered question: Does a cyber attack cross the line into open conflict between states?
Internet outage
Cyber
Registered question: Does a major outage take down a large part of the internet?
Hurricane season
Climate and disasters
Registered question: Does a hurricane cause a major disaster this season?
Earthquake and volcano
Climate and disasters
Registered question: Where does the next large earthquake or eruption strike?
Drought and famine
Climate and disasters
Registered question: Which region slides from drought into famine?
Next pandemic
Health
Registered question: Does a new outbreak grow into a pandemic?
Antimicrobial resistance
Health
Registered question: Does antibiotic resistance produce a health emergency?
Where to look today
Wildcard
Registered question: Where should attention go today?
Most nervous country
Wildcard
Registered question: Which country is the most nervous right now?
Three months ahead
Wildcard
Registered question: What changes in the next three months?
Democratic erosion
Geopolitics
Registered question: Where is democracy eroding fastest?
Space geopolitics
Geopolitics
Registered question: Does competition in space turn into confrontation?
Coming elections
Named events
Registered question: Who wins the coming elections?
Refugees and migration
Geopolitics
Registered question: Where does the next large movement of refugees begin?
Energy in Europe
Finance
Registered question: Does Europe face an energy squeeze this winter?
Crypto narrative
AI and technology
Registered question: Which way does the crypto story turn: adoption, crackdown or collapse?
Contradiction in the system
Wildcard
Registered question: Where does the system contradict itself?
Crowd forecasts
Named events
Registered question: Where do crowd forecasts and the measured signals disagree?
Global economy
Finance
Registered question: Does the global economy speed up or stall?
Where capital goes
Finance
Registered question: Where does capital flow next?
Gold and commodities
Finance
Registered question: Where does the gold price go, and which commodities follow?
Serie A
Named events
Registered question: Who wins the Serie A title?
Solar storm
Climate and disasters
Registered question: Does a Carrington-class solar storm hit power and communications?
Mediterranean crossings
Geopolitics
Registered question: Do arrivals across the Mediterranean to Italy rise or fall?
AI valuations
AI and technology
Registered question: Are technology valuations driven by AI a bubble, and does it burst?